Dr. Walter Kemmsies Managing Director, Economist and Chief Strategist JLL Ports Airports & Global Infrastructure (PAGI)

Transcription

1 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Managing Director, Economist and Chief Strategist JLL Ports Airports & Global Infrastructure (PAGI) 2019

2 What is PAGI JLL Ports, Airports and Global Infrastructure Team (PAGI). Unique and highly specialized group within CRE space. Mark G. Levy Washington, DC Keith Stauber, SIOR Chicago Steve Ostrowski Chicago Jonathan Walk Washington, DC/New York Dr. Walter Kemmsies Savannah, GA

3 Key message International trade will continue to grow, but Why? Global middle class has reached critical mass the pattern of international trade is going to change, and Why? China, Canada, Mexico, Europe and other trading partners realize the world s largest economy cannot run the world s largest trade deficit without an eventual unhappy ending. sadly, US exporters may not benefit from improved access to global markets. Why? Chronic under-investment in infrastructure Autonomous trucks are not a short to medium term viable solution Intermodal and barges could be a viable immediate and long term solution Public sector may eventually IPO existing infrastructure and let the private sector lead

4 Manufactured goods leads global trade volume growth WORLD REAL GDP AND TRADE VOLUME INDEXES E CAGR Relative to GDP Growth GDP 3.7% 1.0 Manufactured Goods 7.0% 1.9 Fuels and Mining Products 3.8% 1.0 Agricultural Goods 3.5% 1.0 Total Trade 5.8% 1.6 China Trade is driven by: Resources Demographics Trade Agreements Infrastructure Technology Most trade agreements are focused on manufactured goods, not raw materials Volume Index Korea, Taiwan Japan, Brazil GDP Total Agriculture Fuels & Mining Manufactured Source: WTO, JLL

5 China has a disproportionate share of US containerized imports COUNTRY SHARE OF US CONTAINERIZED VOLUMES (METRIC TONS) Country 2003 Country 2005 Country 2007 Country 2009 Country 2011 Country 2013 Country 2015 Country 2017 Country 2018 China 25% China 31% China 37% China 36% China 35% China 36% China 35% China 36% China 36% EU 17% EU 16% EU 15% EU 16% EU 17% EU 18% EU 18% EU 17% EU 18% Brazil 6% Brazil 5% Brazil 5% Brazil 4% Japan 3% South Korea 4% Brazil 4% India 4% India 4% Japan 4% Japan 4% Japan 4% Japan 3% Brazil 3% Japan 3% India 3% Brazil 4% Brazil 3% Taiwan 3% South Korea 3% Taiwan 3% South Korea 3% South Korea 3% Brazil 3% South Korea 3% South Korea 3% Vietnam 3% South Korea 3% Taiwan 3% South Korea 3% Taiwan 3% India 3% India 3% Colombia 3% Vietnam 3% South Korea 3% Thailand 3% Colombia 3% India 2% Thailand 3% Taiwan 2% Taiwan 3% Japan 3% Japan 3% Japan 3% Mexico 2% Thailand 3% Thailand 2% Colombia 3% Thailand 2% Vietnam 2% Taiwan 3% Thailand 3% Thailand 3% India 2% India 2% Colombia 2% India 3% Indonesia 2% Thailand 2% Vietnam 2% Taiwan 2% Taiwan 2% Colombia 2% Mexico 2% Indonesia 2% Indonesia 2% Vietnam 2% Indonesia 2% Thailand 2% Indonesia 2% Indonesia 2% Indonesia 2% Indonesia 2% Chile 2% Chile 2% Colombia 2% Chile 2% Indonesia 2% Colombia 2% Turkey 2% Chile 2% Malaysia 1% Costa Rica 1% Vietnam 2% Chile 2% Colombia 2% Chile 2% Chile 2% Chile 2% Costa Rica 2% Chile 1% Malaysia 1% Costa Rica 1% Malaysia 1% Malaysia 1% Mexico 2% Turkey 1% Colombia 1% Malaysia 1% Australia 1% Australia 1% Malaysia 1% Guatemala 1% Guatemala 1% Malaysia 1% Malaysia 1% Mexico 1% Australia 1% Turkey 1% Vietnam 1% Guatemala 1% Australia 1% Costa Rica 1% Guatemala 1% Mexico 1% Malaysia 1% Guatemala 1% Costa Rica 1% Guatemala 1% Australia 1% Costa Rica 1% Mexico 1% Turkey 1% Guatemala 1% Guatemala 1% Turkey 1% Guatemala 1% Turkey 1% Mexico 1% Mexico 1% Turkey 1% Australia 1% Costa Rica 1% Costa Rica 1% Honduras 1% Honduras 1% Mexico 1% Honduras 1% Turkey 1% Australia 1% Costa Rica 1% Australia 1% Honduras 1% Belgium 1% Vietnam 1% Honduras 1% Turkey 1% Honduras 1% Honduras 1% Honduras 1% Honduras 1% Australia 1% Vietnam 1% Belgium 1% Belgium 1% Belgium 1% Belgium 1% Belgium 1% Belgium 1% Belgium 1% Belgium 1% Source: IMF, JLL PAGI

6 The largest global middle class ever WORLD POPULATION AND OECD GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS PROJECTIONS Billions Reduction of trade barriers and investment in infrastructure to support global trade helped create a substantial global middle class Global Middle Class World Population Source: OECD, US Census Bureau

7 Review and preview 1970s Cold war, GATT, Eisenhower, US Trade Deficit; Oil supply shocks, Brazilian Miracle 1980s Staggers Act; Cold War ends; US companies diversify; Brady Plan; Declining US middle class 1990s 2000s NAFTA 1, Maastricht / EMU; Tequila and Vodka crisis; Technology and Telecoms deregulated; China joins WTO; Highway Trust Fund deficit; Worsening US trade deficit; 1Bn global middle class US trade deficit explodes; BRICS; 1.8Bn global middle class reaches; Chinese currency policy; Real estate bubble; great recession 2010s Long recovery; US trade deficit resumes; US exports oil and gas; TPP; 3.8 Bn global middle; congestion; truck driver shortages, Bigger vessels; US changes global terms of trade; NAFTA s Intermodal and barges pick up where trucks leave off; eventually dual fuel ships, airplanes, railroads, truck pelotons, and flying vehicles move freight; US trade deficit shrinks; global middle class reaches 5.4Bn

8 US containerized trade has recovered to new high levels CONTAINER VOLUME TRENDS MONTHLY 2006 TO 2017 (12 OF LARGEST 14 CONTAINER PORTS) PORT OF LOS ANGELES GROWTH TEU Millions Source: American Association of Port Authorities Import Export Empty Total Loaded Total Year Int'l Volumes Change Growth ,912, ,291,297 2,378,563 6% ,867, ,223 1% ,664,705 (2,202,815) -5% ,597,661 (5,067,044) -13% ,593,130 4,995,469 15% ,244, ,440 2% ,919, ,627 2% ,816, ,897 2% ,622,719 1,806,625 4% ,265,397 1,642,678 4% ,368,071 3,102,674 7% The four largest ports (Los Angeles + Long Beach, New York/New Jersey, Savannah and Seattle - Tacoma) handled 65% of the national total in 2017 Source: OECD, US Census Bureau

9 Larger ships have lower average costs per container EVOLUTION OF CONTAINERSHIP SIZE Race to build larger ships Few innovations in industry apart from building larger ships

10 What it means to handle a 14K TEU vessel service 14,000 TEU Vessel 95% Full = 14,778 lifts to unload and load 77% moved by truck = 11,379 oneway truck trips = 131 miles of trucks end-to-end 23% moved by rail = 10 unit trains = 20 miles of trains end-to-end 691,600 (import and export) TEUs per year requires >60M sf of DC space Average Intermodal Shares of Various Ports Los Angeles / Long Beach 40% New York 25% Savannah 18% Norfolk 35%

11 Congestion is getting worse and ecommerce is growing 2020 CONGESTION FORECASTS, WITH TRUCKS Source: US DOT, Census Bureau, JLL

12 Ecommerce is growing ECOMMERCE VS. TOTAL RETAIL SALES 1,400 12% US$ Billions 1,200 1, % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0 0% E-commerce Share Total E-commerce Source: US DOT, Census Bureau, JLL

13 Omnichannel strategy OPPERATING PROFILE VS. DISTANCE TO MSA What drives success? Why omnichannel

14 Inland hubs are becoming more numerous Source: JLL Research

15 More containers on rail UNITED STATES*** TOTAL INTERMODAL ORIGINATED RAIL TRAFFIC * Canadian traffic includes the U.S. operations of Canadian railroads. ** Mexican traffic includes the U.S. operations of Mexican railroads. Comparable railroad figures are not available for week 1-26, Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.

16 Mexico-US traffic is congested TEXAS BORDER CROSSING - TRAINS TEXAS BORDER CROSSING - TRUCKS 4,500 2,500,000 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,250,000 2,000,000 1,750,000 1,500,000 1,250,000 1,000, , , , Brownsville Trains Laredo Trains Brownsville Trucks Laredo Trucks 43,157 miles of trucks and trains (laid end to end) passed through these two border crossings in 2017, almost 120 miles of freight per day Laredo is the fastest growing border crossing with truck volumes growing 3.8% per year on average over the last 10 years. Train volumes has grown 0.9% per year on average. Brownsville has experienced declines. Source: JLL Research

17 Alternatives beyond rail and truck $100+ billion MX--US Southeast market struggling with a critical and worsening truck capacity shortage and no rail capacity. Container on barge, being developed by Work Cat Trans Gulf, is the only viable solution. Complements existing intermodal cargo networks Significant cost saving opportunities Promotes safety, security, service Source: JLL Research

18 The five miles of uncertainty Mile Zero: Where will import sources be? First Mile: Which port gateways will be able to improve connectivity? Middle Mile: How to reduce dependency on long distance trucking? Last Mile: How to maintain share of increasingly fragmented consumers? Next Mile: Which markets will absorb a larger share of US exports?

19 Key message More Trade New Patterns Disappointed Exporters (Happy savvy industrial real estate investors)