International Trade Trends 2010 Review and 2011 Outlook
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1 International Trade Trends 2010 Review and 2011 Outlook Nancy D. Sidhu, Ph.D. Chief Economist The Kyser Center for Economic Research LAEDC May 18, 2011
2 International Container Traffic at Nation s Major Ports Millions TEUs Savannah '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 ' Source: Port Statistical Releases
3 Value of International Trade at Nation s Leading Customs Districts Billions of US$ Los Angeles New York Detroit Houston New Orleans Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
4 2010 Top 10 Ports in the World Total containers in millions of 20ft. equivalent units (TEU) Rank Port Trade Region %ChYA 1 Shanghai East Asia % 2 Singapore South East Asia % 3 Hong Kong East Asia % 4 Shenzhen East Asia % 5 Busan North East Asia % 6 Los Angeles/Long Beach North America West Coast % 7 Ningbo East Asia % 8 Guangzhou East Asia % 9 Qingdao East Asia % 10 Dubai Middle East % Source: Containerisation International-2010, American Association of Port Authorities-2009
5 LAX International Cargo Traffic 1200 Tons, Thousands Departures (Exports) Arrivals (Imports) 0 Source: Los Angeles World Airports
6 Top Export Destinations $Billions 30.1 From the Los Angeles Customs District China Japan South Korea Australia Taiwan Source: US Census Bureau
7 Top Import Sources Into the Los Angeles Customs District $Billions China Japan South Korea Taiwan Thailand Source: US Census Bureau, General Imports
8 2010 Imports Entering the L.A. Customs District (Share of Total) Refined Oil Products & Natural Gas, 5.5% Motor Vehicles & Parts, 8.0% Toys, Games & Sports Equipment, 4.4% Total Imports: $312.0 Bn Other, 35.8% Apparel & Accessories, 8.8% Electric Machinery, Sound & TV Equipment & Parts, 18.2% Source: US Census Bureau Computers, Peripherals, Machinery, Appliances & Parts, 19.3%
9 2010 Exports Through L.A Customs District (Share of Total) Motor Vehicles & Parts, 5.1% Other, 48.4% Total Exports: $105.3 Bn Aircraft, Spacecraft & Parts, 6.0% Plastics & Items Made of Plastic, 6.4% Source: US Census Bureau Optical, Photo & Medical/Surgical Instruments, 7.5% Electric Machinery, Sound & TV Equipment & Parts, 12.2% Computers, Peripherals, Machinery, Appliances & Parts, 14.4%
10 International Trade-Related Employment in the L.A. Five-County Area Source: CA EDD, US Census Bureau
11 $6.2 $6.8 $7.3 $7.5 $8.1 $8.6 $9.3 $10.5 $9.2 $10.9 $9.2 $8.8 $9.2 $9.6 $9.6 $10.6 $10.6 $15.7 $14.3 $16.3 $16.6 $18.1 $18.1 $21.1 Worldwide Box Office Receipts $Billions Domestic International Source: MPAA
12 International Passengers at LAX 20.0 Passengers (Millions) '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 ' Source: Los Angeles World Airports
13 World Economic Outlook Annual % Change f 2012f World Japan Developing Asia Latin/South America Euro Area Source: International Monetary Fund (April 2011)
14 Value of U.S. Dollar Since Canada (C$/US$) China (Yuan/US$) Euro Zone ( /US$) Japan ( /US$) U.K. ( /US$) Index (2000 = 100) Source: Federal Reserve Board
15 Impact of Japan s Disasters Large near-term declines in activity closely tied to Japan Reduced availability of Japanese nameplate vehicles Fewer Japanese tourists Scattered shortages of key parts and components manufactured only/mostly in Japan Followed by recovery Return to normal later in 2011, 2012, and thereafter.
16 Crude Oil Prices $/BBL Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Source: Energy Information Administration
17 Trade Related Infrastructure Projects Current Pier G Modernization (POLB) Long Beach Harbor Dredging (POLB) TraPac Improvement (POLA) China Shipping Expansion (POLA) Main Channel Deepening Project (POLA) Bradley West (LAX) Farther ahead Gerald Desmond Bridge (POLB) Middle Harbor Redevelopment (POLB) Pier 500 (POLA) Intermodal Container Transfer Facility Modernization/Expansion (UP) Southern California International Gateway (BNSF)
18 Challenges for International Trade Industry Panama Canal Expansion Expected completion in Competition from Other Ports Gulf and East Coast Canada and Mexico Ground Transportation Capacity and Rates Colton Crossing Project
19 Opportunities for International Trade Industry National Export Initiative Exports to double by South Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement Developing Asia Nations China ASEAN Nations Thailand Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia Philippines
20 Total TEUs Handled at the LA-LB Ports 18 Millions Los Angeles Long Beach f Source: Ports of Los Angeles & Long Beach
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