ISSUES AND CHALLENGES FACING THE PLASTICS INDUSTRY, An Exclusive Seminar for MPMA Members 2 nd April 2014 Venue: Conference Room, MPMA, Petaling Jaya

Transcription

1 ISSUES AND CHALLENGES FACING THE PLASTICS INDUSTRY, An Exclusive Seminar for MPMA Members 2 nd April 214 Venue: Conference Room, MPMA, Petaling Jaya Raw Materials Present and Future Regional/World Capacities and Trends Avdo Niksic Nick Managing Director Asia Pacific & India ChemOrbis aniksic@chemorbis.com

2 Agenda GLOBAL (FREE TRADE?) MARKET SUPPLY (CENTERS) DEMAND (CENTERS) FEEDSTOCK!

3 Free Trade Agreements AFTA & AEC & etc

4 7, HDPE World 6, Nameplate Capacity Demand 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,

5 HDPE World Nameplate Capacity 7, 6, Others North America China Western Europe Southeast Asia India South America Japan 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,

6 HDPE World Demand 6, 5, China Others North America Western Europe Southeast Asia India South America Japan 4, 3, 2, 1,

7 3, LDPE World Nameplate Capacity Demand 25, 2, 15, 1, 5,

8 LDPE World Nameplate Capacity 3, 25, Others Western Europe North America China Southeast Asia Japan South America India 2, 15, 1, 5,

9 LDPE World Demand 3, 25, China Others Western Europe North America South America Southeast Asia India Japan 2, 15, 1, 5,

10 45, LLDPE World 4, 35, Nameplate Capacity Demand 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5,

11 LLDPE World Nameplate Capacity 45, 4, 35, Others North America China Southeast Asia Western Europe India South America Japan 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5,

12 LLDPE World Demand 4, 35, China North America Others Western Europe Southeast Asia India South America Japan 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5,

13 1, Polypropylene World 9, 8, Nameplate Capacity Demand 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,

14 Polypropylene World Nameplate Capacity 8, 7, China Western Europe North America Southeast Asia India South America Japan Others 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,

15 Polypropylene World Demand 7, 6, China North America Western Europe Southeast Asia India South America Japan Others 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,

16 Ineos chairman warns that Europe's chemical industry could disappear within a decade

17 Energy, in the form of gas, in Europe is three times higher than in the Unites States today, whilst electricity is 5% higher. There are no cheap feedstocks in Europe. USA and Middle East feedstocks costs are in another league. Shale gas in the United States has transformed both its competitiveness and its confidence. There are $71 billion worth of announced petrochemical expansions on the back of shale gas flowing into chemicals. This is predicted to grow to over $1 billion. In contrast Europe announces closure after closure. In the Middle East, they continue to build in Abu Dhabi, in Qatar, in Saudi and now we can add Iran with another 6 million tons of ethylene capacity rejoining planet earth. In the UK we have seen 22 chemical plant closures since 29 and no new builds. And then we have China.... The Chinese are building relentlessly. Whilst in recent history, they have soaked up all the world s surplus chemicals, they will soon be self-sufficient. And beyond that they will start to reverse the flow. Remember they are set to become the world s largest economy by 22.

18 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Different market dynamics Crude Oil (e)' (dollars per barrel) Natural Gas Wellhead' (dollars per thousand cubic feet) Coal' (dollars per million Btu) 2..

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20 World s Polymers Meters 3, 25, 2, 15, Turkey Italy China 1, 5,

21 World s Polymers Meters

22 Cumulative China Imports 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2,

23 Monthly China Imports 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,

24 China Imports by product 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, PVC PS PP PET PE ABS 4, 2,

25 3 China PVC growth Capacity Apparent Demand Production Imports Exports A 27A 28A 29A 21A 211A 212A 213E

26 Regional Polymers Meters 18,,, Imports & Exports excluding China 16,,, 14,,, 12,,, 1,,, 8,,, 6,,, 4,,, 2,,, Australia India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Grand Total Imports Exports

27 CHINA IMPORTS PREMIUM OVER SEA

28 CHINA LOCAL PREMIUM OVER INDONESIA

29 6 China growth model export for profit sell volumes domestically Capacity Apparent Demand Production Imports Exports A 27A 28A 29A 21A 211A 212A 213E

30 8,,, Net Importers & Net Exporters 7,,, ,,, ,,, ,,, 212 3,,, 2,,, 1,,, Australia India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand -1,,, -2,,,

31 3,,, Regional Polymer Imports ,5,, 2,,, 1,5,, 1,,, 5,, Australia India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand

32 1,4,, 1,2,, Vietnam growing regional imports Australia India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan 1,,, Thailand 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,,

33 LDPE changing fortune

34 LDPE changing fortune

35 China Import Homo & Copo

36 China Domestic Homo & Copo

37 In China PP we stick together!

38 CHINA PP WINS, MALAYSIA IN SECOND PLACE!

39 ChemOrbis Global business network for plastics

40 CHEMORBIS CHINA No. 338, West Nanjing Road, Tian An Center, 7F, Unit 76 Shanghai, P.R. China, 23 Phone: +86 (21) Fax: +86 (21) CHEMORBIS EGYPT 21 Ebbad El Rahman St. Sheraton Area, Cairo, Egypt Phone:+2 (2) Fax:+2 (2) Q & A THANK YOU... CHEMORBIS TURKEY Ataturk Caddesi, Seref Yazgan Is Merkezi, No:72, K: 6 Kozyatagi Istanbul, Turkey Phone: +9 (216) (pbx) Fax: +9 (216) coturkey@chemorbis.com CHEMORBIS USA 856 Sunflower Circle Weston Florida United States Phone: +1 (754) Fax: +1 (754) cousa@chemorbis.com CHEMORBIS MALAYSIA Suite B-11-1, Plaza Mont Kiara No 2, Jalan Kiara, Mont Kiara Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 548 Phone: +6 (3) Fax:+6 (3) comalaysia@chemorbis.com CHEMORBIS ITALY Via La Spezia Milano - Italy Phone: +39 (2) Fax:+39 (2) coitaly@chemorbis.com CHEMORBIS RUSSIA 9 Universitetsky prospekt Moscow, , Russia Phone: 8(495) 938 corussia@chemorbis.com