NITC Outlook On Middle East Oil Movement & Tanker Shipping

Transcription

1 NITC Outlook On Middle East Oil Movement & Tanker Shipping Presented by: Mohammad Souri Chairman & CEO, NITC Intertanko s Annual Event Istanbul, April

2 Country Oil Proven Reserve Billion Barrel Daily Production Million Barrel Continuity (Year) Saudi Arabia 260 8/7 81 Iran 136 4/2 100 Kuwait 99 2/5 108 U.A.E 97 2/5 107 Iraq Qatar 15/5 0/65 65 Oman 5/6 0/6 25 Source : Bloomberg Destination Japan China Korea India Europe USA Other Total Mbpd Percent 24 % 20 % 12 % 8 % 15 % 12 % 8 % 100 % Source: OPEC June

3 Mbpd 28.3 Mbpd 33.8 Mbpd The Growth of oil production in P.G. is not limited to crude oil. In parallel, the export volumes of by-products, petrochemicals and LNG are increasing accordingly. Source: NIOC Research Center Middle East Other Total 3,690 Billion USD 4,510 Billion USD 8,200 Billion USD Source NIOC Research Center 3

4 Saudi Arabia Iran Iraq Qatar UAE Kuwait Oman Bahrain Total 250 USD bn 160 USD bn 70 USD bn 60 USD bn 60 USD bn 50 USD bn 20 USD bn 1 USD bn 671 USD bn Source. Aramco 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Middle East: Oil Product Demand 4,000 2, kb/d Kbd LPG Naphtha Gasoline Kero/jet Jet fuel Gasoil* Fuel Oil** Others *Includes Bunkering; **Includes Bunkering & Direct Burning of Crude Source : Global Energy 4

5 1- The region is projected to grow at 6-7% per year through to 2010 and at 4-5% per year between 2010 and Middle East oil product demand is projected to rise by 2.8 mmb/d between 2007 and Export growth from P.G. region will not be limited to crude oil. It is expected to raise export of oil products by 2 Mbpd till country Qatar Abu Dhabi Oman Iran Production Million Tons p.a Future Increased production 77 Million Tons p.a. by 2012 Not reported 8 Million tons by Million Tons 2012 to 2020 Source : NITC Planning 5

6 Year Million Tons As estimated, by % percent of world gas production will be traded in liquid (LNG). Source: NITC Planning Middle East holds trillion cubic meter of natural gas, equal to 41% of world gas reserves. As estimated, P.G. region with present annual production of 43 million Tons of LNG will gradually hit the ceiling of 174 million tons by Establishment of Gas OPEC as proposed by major gas players of the region will prove drastic impact on LNG movement worldwide. 6

7 Among 381 vessels ordered to date, 76 LNG carriers were booked by Qatar and seven by Oman. 258 in total have been delivered. NITC is planning to order up to 40 LNG vessels for construction as soon as the South and North Pars LNG projects of Iran start operations. Number of spot fixtures in the Gulf from VLCC Suezmax SUEZMAX 266 Aframax AFRAMAX Panamax PANAMAX LR1 LR1 244 LR2 LR MR1 MR MR Source : ACM SHIPPING data Source :ACM Shipping data 7

8 Tankers Fleet and Orderbook of Gulf Countries by Shiptype (million DWT) Handy Chemical Fleet Orderbook Handy Chemical Handy Products Handy Products Panamax Panamax Aframax Aframax Suezmax Suezmax VLCC VLCC Source : Clarkson Research Database (Million DWT) 12 Top 10 Tanker Shipping Companies of Gulf Countries (million DWT) NITC NITC Vela Int. Vela Int. NSSA NSSA KOTC KOTC Oman OSC Shipping Saudi Maritime Saudi Maritime Emirate Trading Emirate Trading NCC NCC Fleet Orderbook Fleet Order book Fal Shipping Fal Shipping GEM GEM Others Others Source : Clarkson Research Database Source: Clarkson Research Database 8

9 Vessel Units Capacity DWT Remarks VLCC 28 8,624, operational 9 to be delivered Suezmax Aframax Super Caspianmax Chem/Product Carrier LPG Carrier ,446, , , ,000 12,000 3 operational 2 to be delivered 2009 (from domestic shipyard) operational Total: 51 Units 10,936,000 (DWT) 5 operational 4 to be delivered 2008 operational to be delivered 2009 (from domestic shipyard) Source : NITC planning NITC is the No.1 shipping company in the P.G. which occupies one fourth of tanker fleet and orderbook in terms of deadweight. Top 10 has a share of 86% of the P.G. fleet and orderbook in terms of deadweight. 36 tanker owners are in P.G. that have 270 ships of 26.3 million DWT. Currently 125 ships of 18.3 million DWT in orderbook. 9

10 Length: 183 KM Width : KM Depth : 30 to 213 M Strategic Islands : Qeshm-Hormoz- Larak- Hengam- Tombs- Abu Musa 30,000 vessels pass through Strait of Hormoz p.a. Quantities of crude oil exported through Hormoz Strait Present : 17.1 Mbpd Next 2 decades (2030) : 33 Mbpd 10

11 Hormoz Strait is the only exit way in Persian Gulf which has always been considered as the most strategic oil route. One fifth of world oil daily consumption transits through this Strait. Any action to block, or threat to block, this vitally important waterway will impact drastically on the price of oil, which could double. The supply of oil is considered as a national achievement by P.G. countries. P.G. countries have provided the major proportion of the world's oil requirements for 100 years, and will spare no efforts to maximize the supply of oil and gas for another 100 years. NITC is proud to be at the service of world's oil transportation industry, and extends a warm invitation and welcome to all business partners to join NITC shipping projects. 11

12 12