U.S. Product Exports: Key Drivers and Challenges

Transcription

1 U.S. Product Exports: Key Drivers and Challenges John R. Auers, P.E. Executive Vice President Argus North American Petroleum Transportation Summit 2015 Houston, TX June 1, 2015

2 TM&C Overview International consulting practice since 1971 Downstream focus; refinery/chemical engineers Industry and financial clients Strategic Studies FMV Assessments & Venture Analyses National Policy Studies Publish various outlook and multi-client subscription reports Crude and Refined Products Outlook Refinery Construction Outlook World Crude Outlook North American Crude and Condensate Outlook 2014 Edition issued in October 2

3 Key Conclusions U.S. Has Moved From Largest Importer to Major Product Exporter Resulted from both necessity and increased competitiveness Aided by increasing demand in emerging economies Facilitated by refining developments/challenges in other regions/countries Ability to maintain/grow exports will be critical for U.S. refiners Demand Growth Domestic/Global Will Be Key Domestic Demand Impacted by Both Regulations and Demographics Alternate Fuels Are Stealing Market Share Lower Price Environment Should Help Many Other Factors Involved Other Factors/Challenges Impacting Export Model Market saturation in traditional markets Construction of refineries in importing countries Competition from other export refineries - ME/India/Russia Gasoline and light products could be more difficult to export Crude export restrictions will result in greater product exports 3

4 Agenda Evolution from Importer to Exporter Product Demand What Does the Future Hold - Key Issues and Challenges 4

5 Million BPD World Liquid Fuels Demand Growth ( ) U.S. Europe Japan China India Other Asia Pacific Rest of the World *Total Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption 5

6 Competitiveness Factors Advantaged Crude Costs Free Market Principles, Economically and Politically Stable U.S. Refining Competitiveness Most Advanced, Complex Refineries Low Energy Costs Low Capital Costs Highly Skilled, Flexible Workforce 6

7 MBPD U.S. Net Product Exports: 2005 to Present Decline in domestic demand combined with favorable refining environment month Rolling Average 7

8 Leading Product Importers/Exporters (Net) Exporter - Russia 2. Exporter - Saudi Arabia 3. Exporter - Venezuela 4. Exporter - Kuwait 5. Exporter - Algeria Importer - Hong Kong 4. Importer - Spain 3. Importer - China 2. Importer - Japan 1. Importer - U.S. Current 1. Exporter - Russia 2. Exporter - U.S.* 3. Exporter - India* 4. Exporter - Saudi Arabia* 5. Exporter - Canada Importer - Brazil 4. Importer - Mexico 3. Importer - France 2. Importer - Indonesia 1. Importer - Japan *All three relatively close, U.S. exports continue to rise. 8

9 Net Exports (Imports), MBPD U.S. Net Export Balance Shift By Product Gasoline Diesel LPG & NGL Resid (Jan-Oct) 9

10 U.S. Imports/Exports By Source/Destination U.S. Imports (Jan-Oct 2014) U.S. Exports (Jan-Oct 2014) Canada Total = 1.8 Million BPD Total = 3.7 Million BPD 33% 26% 17% Canada Russia Europe Other 19% 18% 13% 14% Mexico Central + South America Europe 24% 36% Other 10

11 U.S. Gasoline Exports 90+% stay in W. Hemisphere Transportation advantage vs. other export oriented facilities Mexico traditionally largest market for U.S. product exports Venezuelan refining center has struggled with operability/allowed increases to Central & South America 2014 U.S. Gasoline Export Destinations Canada 10% Others, 2% Africa 7% Central + South America 36% Mexico 45% 11 11

12 U.S. Diesel Exports 2014 By Type By Destination Other, 4% LSD 10% HSD 10% Mexico, 11% ULSD 80% Europe, 31% Central + South America, 53% 12

13 MBPD MBPD Other U.S. Product Exports Shale gas revolution has drastically increased supply of NGLs Shale crude also increasing refinery LPG s Resid export growth driven by decreasing domestic demand U.S. LPG/NGL Net Exports U.S. Resid Net Exports vs. Demand Other Latin America Mexico Canada Net Exports U.S. Demand 13

14 U.S. Product Exports (MBPD) Latin American Export Destinations Total Exports in 2005: 582 MBPD Total Exports in 2014: 1,857 MBPD

15 MBPD Mexico s Growing Product Shortfall Consumption Refinery Throughput

16 MBPD Similar Story for Central + S. America Consumption Refinery Throughput

17 Regional Balances/Trends PADD I Only Substantial Importer of Refined Product Gasoline makes up bulk of imports into PADD I Both gasoline and total imports have declined by over 50% since 2006 Europe and Canada largest source of imports PADD III Has Large and Growing Surplus of All Refined Products Surplus has grown as in-padd demand declines and production increases PADD I is biggest destination for surplus product (over 3.2 million BPD including over 1.8 million BPD of gasoline) Volumes to PADD I limited by pipeline constraints and Jones Act impacts Exports also growing Now over 2.8 MMBPD, incl. about 400 MBPD gasoline PADD V Generally Balanced Supplied by Regional Refineries Declining demand moving region from small shortage (100+ MBPD) to small surplus (100+ MBPD) Region about 1 refinery long; outages have caused short-term shortages 17

18 Agenda Evolution from Importer to Exporter Product Demand What Does the Future Hold - Key Issues and Challenges 18

19 Key Demand Drivers Economic Growth Particularly important for diesel demand Demographics Population growth Lifestyle changes (telecommuting, reurbanization) Environmental/Tax Regulations Alternative Fuels (subsidies, mandates, etc.) Mandated Efficiency Standards (CAFE) Fuel Taxes/Subsidies Other policies imposing higher costs PRICES Demand is elastic at the consumer level 19

20 Gasoline Price ($/Gal) Gasoline Demand (MBPD) $4.50 $4.00 U.S. Demand is Price Elastic $ $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 Rising prices drives down demand $ Price: 3 Month Rolling Average Demand: 12 Month Rolling Average Extended period of low prices causes rebound in demand Gasoline ($/Gal) Sharp spike in prices before recession led to demand decline. Post recession price spike in 2010 causes additional drop in demand Demand (MBPD) Prices: EIA Retail Gasoline Price, Monthly Energy Review 20

21 U.S. Canada Chile Poland Spain Italy France Greece Norway UK Germany Israel Turkey New Zlnd. Japan Korea Dollars Per Gallon $6 $5 $4 $3 High Taxes Impact Elasticity U.S. Gasoline 80-90% Canada Gasoline 50-65% France Gasoline 30-40% Diesel 35-50% Japan Gasoline 45-60% Diesel 50-65% $2 $1 Gasoline Diesel $0 NA SA Europe Asia Pacific Component % of Total Cost, Remainder Tax OECD/EEA Fuel Taxes, as of Jan

22 USA Canada Chile Argentina Venezuela Norway UK Greece Sweden France Spain Romania Poland Russia Israel South Africa Nigeria Egypt Kuwait Saudi Arabia Turkey Hong Kong New Zealand South Korea China India Indonesia Malaysia Gasoline Price Per Gallon Tax/Subsidy Impact on Pump Price $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 NA SA Europe Africa Asia Pacific Bloomberg: Gasoline Prices by Country, Q

23 Percent Price Decrease June 30-Dec 30, 2014 Oil Price Impacts on Gasoline 60% 50% 50% 40% 37% 30% 20% 30% 27% 22% 18% 16% 10% 0% Brent U.S. Canada France UK Japan India Crude Gasoline 23

24 MPG CAFE Fuel Efficiency Standards* Passenger Cars Light Trucks *For new model year vehicles, and based on EPA models. Source: NHTSA 24

25 Total Alternative Fuels (MBPD) Alternative Fuels Growth Actual Forecast? 2000 With recent sharp 1500 decline in oil prices, 1000 viability of many alternatives is in 500 jeopardy Other CTL/GTL CNG/LNG/LPG Biodiesel Ethanol 25

26 Million BPD From , Petroleum Based Gasoline Demand Grew 1.5%/yr 10 9 U.S. Gasoline Demand ( ) Historical Forecast Going forward, from petroleum based gasoline is forecast to continue falling by 0.9%/yr RFS Mandates, 10% Ethanol in Gasoline Demographic Shifts: Reurbanization & Stagnant Car Ownership CAFE Standards: Increased Fuel Economy Continued Demographic Shifts From , Petroleum Based Gasoline Demand Fell 1.6%/yr Petroleum Gasoline Ethanol 26

27 Demand Change, (Million BPD) Worldwide Demand Forecast ( ) U.S. Europe Asia Pacific Rest of the World Gasoline Distillates Resid Other 27

28 Million BPD 8 7 Demand in Producing Countries ( ) Demand from producing regions/countries has accounted for up to 60% of total demand growth in the last decade Middle East Brazil + Venezuela Russia Africa Canada World 28

29 Agenda Evolution from Importer to Exporter Product Demand What Does the Future Hold - Key Issues and Challenges 29

30 U.S. Exports (MBPD) U.S. Export % of Total Mexico, LA+SA Consumption LA Market Approaching Saturation? % of Total Exports to LA+SA 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 30

31 MBPD Growth in U.S. Net Product Exports High Crude/High Gasoline Production Case 2,000 1,500 1, Crude Exports Allowed 2025 Crude Exports Restricted 0 Gasoline Distillates LPG/LSR

32 MBPD U.S. Gasoline Import/Export Balance 1,500 28% 1, % 37% 48% 35% Asia/Other Latin America Europe Mexico 0 Canada % Crude Exports Allowed 2025 Crude Exports Restricted 32

33 Transportation Cost Competition Route is roughly 2-4 times longer for U.S. gasoline + $3.00-$6.00 vs. Middle East exports 33

34 Recent Capacity Repositioning capacity changes (MBPD) Additional ~2 Million BPD under threat Russia U.S. & Canada 170 Europe Asia Pacific Latin America 130 Africa Middle East Japan & Australia 34

35 Major Refinery Start-Ups 2013/14 Consuming Countries Refinery Country Incremental Crude Capacity Motiva Port Arthur U.S. 325 Petrobras RNEST (Abreu y Lima) Brazil 115 Sinochem Quanzhou China 240 Petrochina Pengzhou China 200 Sinopec Caofeidian China 200 Producing Countries Refinery Country Incremental Crude Capacity Saudi Aramco / Total SA Jubail Saudi Arabia 400 Saudi Aramco / Sinopec Yanbu Saudi Arabia 400 Rosneft Tuapse Russia

36 Expected Capacity Increases capacity changes (MBPD) Decline in these regions expected Russia U.S. & Canada 400+ Europe? 300 Asia Pacific Latin America 500+ Africa Middle East 3800? Japan & Australia 36

37 Major Upcoming Projects Consuming Countries Refinery Country Year Incremental Crude Capacity Petrobras (2 Sites) Brazil CNPC Jieyang China IOCL Paradip India Sonangol Lobito Angola Petrovietnam Nghi Son Vietnam PTT / Aramco Nhon Hoi Vietnam Producing Countries Refinery Country Year Incremental Crude Capacity NIORDC Abadan Iran KNPC (3 Sites) Kuwait Saudi Aramco Jizan Saudi Arabia Takreer Ruwais UAE

38 Capital Costs High in ROW Brazil Abreu e Lima: 4 years late, $16B over budget. Issues with bribery/corruption. Comperj: Delayed by 4 years, total cost over $13B. Premium I/II: Delayed 5-6 years. Colombia Reficar/Cartagena: Several labor disputes and delays, drive cost from $2.5B to $6.5B. Saudi Arabia Jubail and Yanbu: refineries each $3.5B to $4B over budget. 38

39 Presenter John R. Auers, P.E. Executive Vice President Univ. of Nebraska Chem. Engr. Univ. of Houston MBA Formerly with Exxon Industry studies/analysis, forecasting, modeling Leads Outlook team Contact Info Office