SUMMARY. Natural Gas In The World 2017 Edition

Transcription

1 CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas SUMMARY Natural Gas In The World 217 Edition CEDIGAZ, October 217

2 NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD 217 SUMMARY Worldwide proven natural gas reserves grew by.9% year on year to 196,941 bcm as of December 31,216 (+ 1,71 bcm). The largest increase was recorded in the Middle East (+ 947 bcm), under the impetus of strong reserves growth in Iraq (+662 bcm/21%). Worldwide marketed natural gas production edged up.2% to bcm in 216, marking an abrupt halt after a gradual growth of almost 2%/year on average over the five previous years. Much of the lacklustre performance can be attributed to the US, where gas production fell for the first time since the US shale revolution began. World gross natural gas production increased by.6% to 4384 bcm in 216. Significant increases were observed in the volumes of reinjected gas (+ 1.2%), flaring/venting (+ 2.2%) and shrinkage (+ 3%). Global production of unconventional gas surged 5.3% to 817 bcm and North America still covers more than 85% of the world total. International natural gas trade accelerated in 216, up 6.2% to 117 bcm, addressing regional imbalances (Europe) and local gas shortages. This expansion was fuelled by both pipeline trade (+ 6.1%) and LNG (+ 6.4%). UGS Working Gas Capacity increased by 2.6% (+ 11 bcm) and stood at 424 bcm on December 31,216 (12% of global gas consumption), driven by expansion in the C.I.S., the Middle East and China. In 216, world actual natural gas consumption (including storage variations) increased at a rate of 1.6% to 3528 bcm, in line with the five year average. In recent years, the role of natural gas in the energy mix has slightly progressed, in a context of falling coal consumption and rising renewable energy production. Weak market fundamentals and low oil prices led to both a reduction in international gas prices and a convergence among regional benchmarks. 2

3 CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas NATURAL GAS RESERVES IN THE WORLD 3

4 Proved reserves by region 25 Source: Cedigaz Natural Gas Statistical Database 2 NORTH AMERICA MIDDLE EAST EUROPE 15 CIS CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA ASIA OCEANIA AFRICA * Unless specified, all data in this report are expressed in billion standard cubic meters. 4

5 Regional share of proved natural gas reserves Source: Cedigaz Natural Gas Statistical Database 8% 6% 6% 4% 2% 41% MIDDLE EAST 33% CIS ASIA OCEANIA AFRICA NORTH AMERICA CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA EUROPE 5

6 Cumulative proved reserves growth since 26 3 Source: Cedigaz Natural Gas Statistical Database AFRICA EUROPE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA ASIA OCEANIA NORTH AMERICA MIDDLE EAST CIS

7 Proved reserves (2 largest reserves holders) 6 5 Source: Cedigaz Natural Gas Statistical Database

8 CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION IN THE WORLD 8

9 Evolution of marketed production of oil and natural gas in the world 4.5 Gtoe Oil 211: 74% 216: 72% Natural Gas 2: 6% : 43% GAS/OIL RATIO OF GLOBAL PRODUCTION Source : CEDIGAZ The global Gas/Oil Production Ratio has fallen in recent years as oil production growth, boosted by US tight oil plays, has surpassed that of natural gas. In 216, it reached around 72%, its lowest level since 21. 9

10 Evolution of the world balance of gas production Evolution Marketed production 8% Gas reinjected 1% Gas flared and vented 3% Other losses (shrinkage) 7% Other losses* Flared & vented Reinjection Marketed production Source: CEDIGAZ * Essentially resulting from the processing of natural gas before it enters the networks, purification and/or extraction of its liquefiable fractions (ethane, LPG, natural gasoline and condensates). This volume includes natural gas used in field and processing plant operations. 1

11 Recent trends in marketed gas production by region North America C.I.S Middle East Asia Oceania Europe Africa South & Central America Source: CEDIGAZ In 216, much of the lacklustre performance can be attributed to the US. Robust and steady growth in the Middle East and Asia Oceania. Flat trend in the CIS, Africa and South & Central America. 11

12 Evolution of marketed production by geographic zone Evolution : + 2%/year South & Central America Africa Europe Asia Oceania Middle East CIS North America 5 Source: CEDIGAZ 12

13 Marketed production by country Top 15 naturalgas producers United States Russia Iran Qatar Canada China & Hong Kong Norway Saudi Arabia Algeria Turkmenistan Australia Indonesia Malaysia UAE Uzbekistan Source: CEDIGAZ

14 CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas UNCONVENTIONAL GAS IN THE WORLD 14

15 Remaining technically recoverable natural gas resources by type and region, end 215 Total resources (Tm3) : 784 Tm 3 Conv. : 434 CBM : 5 Tight : 81 Shale gas : 218 Americas Europe E.Europe/Eurasia Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Oceania Source: International Energy Agency (WEO 216) based on BGR (215), BP (216), Cedigaz (216), O&GJ (215), US EIA/ARI (213), EIA (215), USGS, IEA databases 15

16 Unconventional gas production in the world Year 216 China 8% Australia 4% Others 2% CBM 9% Canada 11% Tight gas 35% US 75% Shale gas 56% Source: CEDIGAZ Estimates North America covers more than 85% of global unconventional gas production. 16

17 Evolution of US dry shale gas production Bcf/d Rest of US 'shale' Permian Utica Marcellus Haynesville Eagle Ford Fayetteville Barnett Woodford Bakken Antrim Source: EIA 17

18 CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas INTERNATIONAL NATURAL GAS TRADE 18

19 Recent trends in international gas trade (2) LNG Inter LNG Intra Inter Pipeline Intra Pipeline Source: CEDIGAZ 19

20 Recent trends in interregional trade Net imports Net exports Europe Asia Oceania North America CIS Middle East Africa South & Central America Regional importing markets Regional exporting markets Source: CEDIGAZ 2

21 International imports by region Total 215 = 142 Bcm Total 216 = 117 Bcm 1% 13% 4% 4% 6% 28% 44% Europe Asia Oceania North America CIS Middle East South & Central America Africa 14% 5% 28% 4% 3% 2% 44% Europe Asia Oceania North America CIS Middle East South & Central America Africa Source: CEDIGAZ 21

22 International exports by region Total 215 = 142 Bcm Total 216 = 117 Bcm 8% 4% C.I.S. 25% Europe 9% 3% C.I.S. 25% Europe 12% Middle East 13% Middle East Asia Oceania Asia Oceania 14% 15% 22% North America Africa South & Central America 15% 14% 21% North America Africa South & Central America Source: CEDIGAZ 22

23 Recent trends in international pipeline flows International pipeline flows by importing zone International pipeline flows by exporting zone Europe North America C.I.S. Asia Oceania Middle East South & Central America Africa C.I.S. Europe North America Africa Middle East Asia Oceania South & Central America Source: CEDIGAZ 23

24 Evolution of international gas trade: Pipeline versus LNG 1 Pipeline LNG 8 6 From 1996, intra CIS trade is included Source: CEDIGAZ 24 32%

25 Evolution of net LNG imports Middle East, South/Central America & Africa Asia Emerging markets Asia Established markets* Europe North America * Japan, South Korea & Taiwan Source: CEDIGAZ 25

26 International natural gas flows by main country (1) International imports in the top ten importing countries International exports in the top ten exporting countries Germany Japan United States China & Hong Kong Italy France United Kingdom Turkey South Korea Mexico Russia Qatar Norway Canada United States Australia Algeria Netherlands Turkmenistan Malaysia Source: CEDIGAZ 26

27 CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas UNDERGROUND GAS STORAGE IN THE WORLD 27

28 Evolution of global UGS working gas capacity Sources: Cedigaz UGS Database, Cedigaz Natural Gas Statistical Database 14% 13% 3 12% % WGC (bcm) WGC/Gas consumption 15 1% 1 5 9% % 28

29 Regional share of working gas capacity (Total 424 bcm) 5% 2% 25% 3% 38% North America C.I.S Europe Asia/Oceania Middle East Central and South America 29

30 Working gas capacity by storage type 8% 12% 8% Abandoned mine Aquifer Depleted field Rock cavern Salt Cavern Source: Cedigaz UGS Database 3

31 CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION IN THE WORLD 31

32 Evolution of the world energy mix 216 (%share of primary fuels) Nuclear 4.9 Renewables 14.1 Natural gas % 35% 3% 25% Coal Oil Oil 32,4 Coal % 15% 1% 5% % Natural gas Nuclear Renewables Source: CEDIGAZ Estimates Over ten years, the share of natural gas in the primary energy mix has gained 1 point to 21.5% In parallel, the share of renewables has risen from 12% to 14%. Coal share has declined significantly from 29% to 27% in the past five years. 32

33 Evolution of apparent consumption by geographic zone : + 2%/year Africa South & Central America Middle East Europe CIS Asia Oceania North America 5 Source: CEDIGAZ 33

34 Evolution of apparent consumption in the top ten consuming countries Top 1 consuming countries Source: CEDIGAZ Mexico UAE Canada Germany Saudi Arabia Japan Iran China Russia United States World Total 216 = 352 Bcm 39% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 22% 5% 12% 6% United States Russia China & Hong Kong Iran Japan Saudi Arabia Germany Canada UAE Mexico Others 34

35 Recent trends in actual gas consumption by region Actual gas consumption* North America Asia CIS Europe Middle East S & Central America Africa * Figures differ from apparent consumption as actual gas consumption takes stock changes into account. Source: CEDIGAZ 35

36 Recent trends in actual gas consumption by economic zone % Total 216 = 3528 bcm 47% % OECD CIS Emerging markets OECD CIS Emerging markets Source: CEDIGAZ 36

37 CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas INTERNATIONAL GAS PRICES 37

38 Evolution of international oil and gas prices $/MBtu Henry Hub Europe - Average Japan LNG Brent Source: CEDIGAZ, US EIA, Reuters Henry Hub Europe Average Japan LNG Brent 38

39 Evolution of international gas prices $/MBtu 2 Europe Average Spot NBP 15 1 Brent 6 M average Japon LNG Japan spot LNG Henry Hub 5 Source: CEDIGAZ, US EIA, Reuters 39

40 CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD 217 Full version (97 slides) + Excel Data Files (Reserves, Production, Trade, Consumption, Underground Gas Storage) available to Cedigaz members Price for non members: Full slideshow (PDF): 35 Euros (VAT excluded) Full slideshow (PDF) + Data (Excel): 1,5 Euros (VAT excluded) More:

41 CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas CEDIGAZ 1 & 4 Avenue de Bois Préau Rueil Malmaison Cedex France About CEDIGAZ CEDIGAZ is an international association dedicated to natural gas information and has around 8 members in 4 countries. CEDIGAZ data has been the industry's reference since its foundation in 1961.