Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges. Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1

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1 Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1

2 World GDP Growth Other Economies are Outpacing the U.S. Other, , 11% Africa, , 6% Latin America, , 9% Europe, , 21% Africa, , 7% Latin America, , 9% Other, , 10% Europe, , 12% U.S., , 13% Other Asia, , 11% India, , 5% Japan, , 6% China, , 13% U.S., , 18% Other Asia, , 12% India, , 11% China, , 24% Japan, , 2% Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook (GDP reported in billions of 2005 $)

3 Tectonic Shifts Between Now and 2030 Growth of the Global Middle Class Wider Access to Lethal and Disruptive Technologies Shift of Economic Power to the East and the South Unprecedented and Widespread Aging Urbanization Food and Water Pressures U.S. Energy Independence Source: Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, National Intelligence Council, December 2012

4 Potential Extreme Disruptive Events Severe Pandemic Much More Rapid Climate Change Euro/EU Collapse A Democratic or Economically Collapsed China A Reformed Iran Nuclear War or WMD/Cyber Attack Solar Geomagnetic Storms U.S. Global Disengagement Source: Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, National Intelligence Council, December 2012

5 U.S. Dollars (Billions) U.S. Dollars (Billions) U.S. Dollars (Billions) U.S. Dollars (Billions) U.S. Dollars (Billions) U.S. Dollars (Billions) Net Exports by Industry U.S., China, and Japan: 1992, 2002, and 2012 Iron and Steel Automotive Office Equipment Clothing Food Electronic Components Source: U.S. International Trade Commission 5

6 Industrial Output (2005$) Industrial Electricity Consumption (Gwh) U.S. Industrial Electricity Usage 3000 Peaked In 2000 U.S. Industrial Output and Electricity Consumption ,200, ,000, , , , Source: U.S. Federal Reserve and Energy Information Administration 200,000 0

7 Billions of 2005 Dollars U.S. Recession and Recovery at a Glance 13,800 13,600 13,400 13,200 13,000 12,800 12,600 12,400 12,200 Gross Domestic Product Unemployment 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% S&P 500 1,477 1, ,140 1,268 1,379 New Home Sales Electricity Sales (bkwh) 776, , , , , ,000 3,765 3,733 3,597 3,754 3,750 3,692

8 GDP (2005$) Unemployment Rate (%) The Economic Recovery: A Large, Lingering Gap Remains U.S. GDP and Unemployment 16, ,000 Actual Unemployment Rate Potential GDP ,000 10,000 8,000 Actual GDP Natural Unemployment Rate 6% gap in economic output , , , Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Congressional Budget Office

9 Energy Sales Growth and the Economy 20% 15% 10% Change in Electricity Usage Electricity Growth and Change in GDP: Change in GDP 5% 0% -5% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Change in Natural Gas Usage Natural Gas Growth and Change in GDP: Change in GDP Source: Energy Information Administration and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

10 The Recovery Challenge: Electricity Growth Continues to Slow... Electricity sales growth has been declining long before the recent recession. 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Period Sales Growth 50's 9.3% 60's 7.4% 70's 4.4% 80's 2.8% 90's 2.4% % -5% Source: Energy Information Administration 10

11 While the Future Trend for Natural Gas is Less Clear Natural gas consumption growth actually rebounded after deregulation in the late 1970s and 1980s. 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Period Sales Growth 50's 7.0% 60's 5.8% 70's -1.4% 80's -0.7% 90's 1.9% % -5% Source: Energy Information Administration 11

12 Distribution of proved gas reserves in 1992, 2002 and 2012 Percentage BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013 BP 2013

13 The Shale Gas Revolution What Does It Mean for the U.S. Energy Industry? 13

14 Jan-2000 Jul-2000 Jan-2001 Jul-2001 Jan-2002 Jul-2002 Jan-2003 Jul-2003 Jan-2004 Jul-2004 Jan-2005 Jul-2005 Jan-2006 Jul-2006 Jan-2007 Jul-2007 Jan-2008 Jul-2008 Jan-2009 Jul-2009 Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012 Jul-2012 $/mmbtu A New Era for Natural Gas Prices 12 U.S. Wellhead Natural Gas Price Source: Energy Information Administration 14

15 Price ($/mmbtu) America s New Abundant, Low Cost Natural Gas Supply Should We Be Exporting It? Comparative Annual Natural Gas Prices U.S. (Henry Hub) European Union (Germany) Japan (LNG) Source: 2013 BP Statistical Review of World Energy DOE has already granted authorization to one LNG exporter (Sabine Pass). NERA Study indicates that exports will create net economic benefits. NG prices would rise, but NG producers and the coal sector would welcome this.

16 Tcf Real NG Price ($/Mcf) A Natural Gas Manufacturing Renaissance? U.S. Industrial Natural Gas Sales $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 Low, stable U.S. natural gas prices, competitive on a global scale, are bringing back gasfired manufacturing Positive Economic Impacts: First Wave: Fracking $87.5 billion in annual capital investment, doubling by end of decade 1.7 million jobs supported (direct and indirect) growing to 3 million by end of decade Second Wave: Return of gas-fired manufacturing lost in early 2000s (Dow Chemical predicts 55% gas sales growth by 2035) Third Wave: Lower chemicals and metals prices spur growth in manufacturing and consumer demand

17 Primary energy world consumption Million tonnes oil equivalent Coal Other Nuclear Natural Gas Liquids 0.9%/year BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 BP EIA 2013 International Energy Outlook

18 Global Nuclear Power Growth Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2013

19 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2013

20 The U.S. Flight from Coal Generation from coal has declined 25% in the past 5 years Coal-fired generation in 2012 was less than in 1988 (but total electricity output has grown 50% during that timeframe) 9,300 MW of coal-fired generation was retired in 2012 This is the highest ever recorded in a single year Equivalent to previous five years of coal retirements combined Over 27,000 MW of coal-fired units scheduled for retirement during next three years

21 Renewable energy consumption/share of power by region Other renewables consumption by region Million tonnes oil equivalent Other renewables share of power generation by region Percentage BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013 BP 2013

22 Europe Has Led the Way in the Solar Expansion Boom... 70,000 Installed Photovoltaic Power (MW) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Rest of World China U.S. Japan Other Europe France Spain Italy Germany Europe (74%) 10, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 BP 2012

23 ... But China and the U.S. Have Led the Way on Wind Power 300,000 Installed Wind Turbine Capacity (MW) 250, , , ,000 50,000 Rest of World U.K. Italy France India Spain Germany U.S. China BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 BP 2012

24 Gigawatts U.S. Renewable Generation Will Make Up 17% of Total Electric Power Sector Capacity by Municipal Waste Wood/Biomass Geothermal Solar Thermal Solar PV 100 Wind Hydropower 50 0 EIA 2013 Annual Energy Outlook

25 The Changing Resource Mix for U.S. Electricity Generation 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2,473 bill kwh 4,110 bill kwh 4,979 bill kwh ,519 1,402 1,847 1, Other Petroleum Renewables Nuclear Natural Gas Coal Numbers indicate electricity generated from each source in billions of kwh Source: Energy Information Administration (Projections for 2035 are from the EIA 2013 Annual Energy Outlook) 25

26 $/kwh $/mmbtu 2009 $/ton Long-Term U.S. Energy Price Projections Wellhead Natural Gas Coal Avg. Forecast Growth: 1.1%/year Electricity Avg. Forecast Growth: 0.4%/year Source: Energy Information Administration

27 What s Driving Grid Modernization? Aging Infrastructure Duration and frequency of power outages increasing 2% per year (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) ASCE estimates investment gap of $57 billion in electric infrastructure through 2020 Environment National (FERC/DOE) vision of power from cleaner/decentralized sources 29 states have RPS programs; 17 with mandates/programs for solar and other DG Energy Autonomy DOD actively implementing islanding State net metering policies encourage customer self-generation Entrepreneurs are capitalizing on DG 27

28 Will Energy Efficiency Bring an End to Electricity Sales Growth in the U.S.? Impact of Energy Efficiency on Total U.S. Electricity Consumption Source: The Institute for Energy Efficiency, Factors Affecting Electricity Consumption in the U..S. ( ), December 2012.

29 Customer Preferences Five Forces of Change in the U.S. Energy Industry

30 An Industry in Transition Strategic Challenges May Reshape Industry Grid Modernization Who Will Provide Electricity, and How? The Future of Energy Demand More, Less, and From Where? Regulation How Will Federal/State Regulatory Policies Evolve? Environmental Policy How Will It Affect the Way that Energy is Produced, and the Cost of Energy? 30

31 Future Utility Business Models Will Be Driven by the Network Control Access Bypass Hardened Grid Cost-Based Open Access Subsidized Open Access Post- Modern Grid Central provider paradigm maintained Investments in reliability Minor inroads by 3 rd party providers Full cost recovery limits risk Proliferation of 3 rd party services Must find new earnings platforms Utility relegated to provider of last resort Reinvention required Passive Consumer Active Prosumer Centralized Decentralized Multiple Networks

32 Thank You! Questions? Contact: John Caldwell

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