The Source for Maritime Information and Insight. Copyright Copyright 2009 IHS Global 2008 IHS Insight. Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1

Transcription

1 The Source for Maritime Information and Insight Copyright Copyright 2009 IHS Global 2008 IHS Insight. Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1

2 A Greener Shade of Blue Christopher Pålsson Director IHS Fairplay

3 20 minutes of What s What s Going On? Possible? Going to Happen?

4 WHAT S GOING ON?

5 Intense Activity Boston Bar Harbor Portland 41.5 New York Baltimore New York Richmond Philadelphia Wilmington Charleston Savannah 39.5 Baltimore Palm Beach Miami Richmond

6 Look Wider!

7 Follow the Supply Chain

8 Separate the Trade Flows

9 ..or just a single vessel 45 Brovig Wind, IMO , : :07 Santander Bilbao 43 Barcelona Lisbon Algeciras Cartagena Algiers Ceuta Agadir 29 Tan tan BROVIG WIND Ports 27 Laayoune, : :

10 WHAT S POSSIBLE?

11 For Each Vessel; IMO no Long Lat Time IMO no Long Lat Time +X minutes Calculate: Distance Average speed

12 Emissions Model Traffic data AIS-Live IMO No Vessel data Reg of Ships Engine designation Engine emission characteristics database Emissions calculations Output of results

13 The speed determines the power outtake Propulsion fuel consumption tonsfuel/day Cruise speed level Port approach level 0 Knots

14 GT vis-à-vis ME power (kw) Example: Bulk carriers Actual effect could differ substantially.

15 Add Sulphur ME 1.5% AE 0.1%

16 A Touch of Abatement where appropriate

17 Slow Steam Present the results

18 Total Duration in Port - hours 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000+ teu 5-7,999 teu 3-4,999 teu 2-2,999 teu 1-1,999 teu -999 teu

19 TEU Capacity of Calling Vessels 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,000+ teu 5-7,999 teu 3-4,999 teu 2-2,999 teu 1-1,999 teu -999 teu

20 CO2 Berth teu 1-1,999 teu 2-2,999 teu 3-4,999 teu 5-7,999 teu 8,000+ teu

21 Que? WHAT S GOING TO HAPPEN?

22 Global Scenarios to 2030 Global Redesign (Planning case) Rebalanced production & consumption between regions. Global growth propelled by Emerging Markets. Growing tension over nuclear weapons proliferation. Non-fossil fuels increase market share. Energy demand shift away from OECD. OECD oil demand has peaked. Continued resource nationalism. Oil loses monopoly in transportation sector. Successful GHG emissions agreement in latter part. Metamorphosis Non-fossil fuel focus Battery innovation Source: IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates. #### IHS_CERA_Template_MMDD , Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent. Vortex Boom Bust Lost Decade 4

23 Annual real GDP growth Global Redesign: GDP growth decreases in the old World avg 2.2% avg 1.8% United States European Union -5.0 Japan

24 Annual real GDP growth Global Redesign: GDP growth decreases in the new World 15.0 avg 6.3% avg 5.9% China -1.0 India -3.0 Brazil

25 Annual real GDP growth Global Redesign: but GDP growth increases in the total World avg 2.9% avg 3.5% World

26 Billions 2005 US dollars Regional Rebalancing of Global GDP 120, ,000 33% 80,000 60,000 40,000 Rest of World Brazil India China (excl H-K) Japan European Union United States 10% 13% 21% 20,

27 Exports. Billion tonnes. Global Redesign: rebalance of World Exports, tonnes Rest of World Brazil India China (excl H-K) Japan European Union United States 10% 56% 54% 19% Trade decreased 7% in 2009.

28 Global Redesign: N America Containerized Imports S America N America Middle East Europe C America Africa & RoW AustralAsia Asia other Asia FE

29 Container fleet, million teu, Capacity Delivery; More of Everything 20 Forecast teu 1-1,999 teu 2-2,999 teu 3-4,999 teu 5-7,999 teu 8,000+ teu

30 20 Minutes of What s What am I talking about? 1,200 container vessels calling or passing US EC ports They were all over the place (when not here) capture route changes Several ship operators are pro-active, but a lot remains to be done: Sulphur Abatement Energy use Energy efficiency Load Factors Routing Upscaling of fleet More capacity to come old technology Tough competition for operators Incitements? Port/fairway dues Rate premium Preferred partner Vetting Long term relationships Risk sharing - integration Corporate Strategy Fear? Environmental care

31 Thanks to Procul Harum, A whiter shade of pale for inspiration. A Greener Shade of Blue and the truth is plain to see I was feeling kinda seasick Thank you chris.palsson@ihs.com

32 The Source for Maritime Information and Insight Copyright Copyright 2009 IHS Global 2008 IHS Insight. Inc. All Rights Reserved. 32