DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET 2017 REVIEW AND FORWARD ANALYSIS
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1 DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET 2017 REVIEW AND FORWARD ANALYSIS Assocarboni Roma March 22 nd, 2018 MARCH
2 STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION Market figures and graphs for 2017 Main market movers for 2017 Supply and demand outlook for market forecast Main market movers for 2018 Outlook for 2019 and onwards & key factors to watch. MARCH
3 2017 Market Cape Size 5 TC routes USD USD Average FFA January
4 2017 Market Panamax 4 TC routes USD USD Average FFA January
5 Seaborne Trade Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade (MMt) growth % Coking coal % Steam coal % Iron ore 1,482 1, % Grains % Minor % Total 3,538 3, % MARCH
6 2017 Fleet structure 2017 Net Fleet Change Actual (Mdwt) Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize Total Additions Deletions Net growth Total 806 % increase 2.8 % 2017 Existing Fleet (Mdwt) MARCH
7 2017 Fleet growth Additions Deletions 9.5 Mdwt +3.0% Mdwt Mdwt +4.0% 5.6 Mdwt +2.8% Mdwt +2.0% 2 0 Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize MARCH
8 2017 Supply / Demand Ratio TRANSPORT GROWTH 2017/ MILL. (+ 2,6%) FLEET NET GROWTH 2017/ MILL. (+ 2,8%) CAPE 9.5 MILL. (+ 2,9%) PANAMAX 5.6 MILL. (+ 2,7%) MARCH
9 2017 Main market movers Large increase of US coal volumes, to both EU & Far East. Recovery of world Economy. Fleet supply under control due to uncertainty on rules. Large increase in grains & iron ore, typically on long routes Slow steaming persists due to high bunker price. MARCH
10 2018 Outlook MARCH
11 2018 expected trade growth 2018 Est. Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade (MMt) est. growth % Coking coal % Steam coal % Iron ore 1,529 1, % Grains % Minor % Total 3,618 3, % MARCH
12 2018 Estimated fleet growth 2018 Est. Net Fleet Change Actual (Mdwt) Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize Total Additions Deletions Net growth Total 823 % increase 2.02% 2018 Est. Existing Fleet (Mdwt) MARCH
13 2018 supply/demand ratio EST. TRANSP. GROWTH 2018/ MILL. (+ 3,23%) EST. FLEET NET GROWTH 2018/ MILL. (+ 2,02%) CAPE 7.95 MILL. (+ 2,46%) PANAMAX 3.54 MILL. (+ 1,76%) MARCH
14 2018 Main market movers Extended recovery of world Economy. Fleet supply under control due to uncertainty on LSFO rules. Delays in USCG approval of BWM system have jeopardized NB orderbook. Lowest NB deliveries in the last 10 years. Rising oil price will boost slow steaming. Expectation for record low hydro electric output in China. Expected record soya beans crop in Brazil. Highest trade growth in the last 7 years Government interventions & Political turbulences MARCH
15 Legislation on fuels as from 2020 As from Jan 1 st 2020, vessels shall have to use LSFO at all times. There will not be any postponement. Rules will be further tightened. Fast implementation does not allow industry to timely solve technical issues. Investments in fuel logistics will be required and prices are set to rise. LSFO will be mainly allocated to big players. Older fleet will be heavily penalized. Upgrade costs have a different % impact, depending on vessel size. MARCH
16 MGO steaming. What does it mean? Tsuneishi Cebu built about 13 Kn on 22 mt fuel laden and ballast Tsuneishi built 2011 about 11 Kn Laden and 12 kn ballast on 24.5 mt fuel Voyage. Hong Kong/Santos/singapore/Quingdao with grains Duration Tsuneishi 2016 about 101 days Tsuneishi 2011 about 114 days Fuel cost Tsuneishi 2016 about 914,000 usd Tsuneishi 2011 about 1,180,000 usd Difference about 266,000 usd MARCH
17 Risks for fleet development A the end of 2019, around 100 panamax and 100 supramax built 2001 will still be afloat. This vessels will have to face costs for Scrubber and BWM with very short shelf life. Alternatively they will have to run on LSMGO at heavy costs. Unless market will rocket up (unlikely) like 2007, then these will be candidate for scrapping. At the same time, uncertainty on rules keeps order book at low levels. Far Eastern yards offer a variety of options, but no one wants to go first! MARCH
18 Conclusions Market is set to rise steadily in the few years to come. Demand will rise following a rising world economy. Supply side set to remain under control due to lack of clarity on legislations. Panamax rates seem to be the best candidate to lead this rise. The most delicate time will be at beginning of 2020, when we shall see if the supply chain of LSFO has developed enough to grant market efficiency. Severe peaks unlikely, due to Chinese shipbuilding capacity already there. Charterers should seek today sufficient level of cover for the next 2/4 years. But do not worry, owners have not learned even the last of the many lessons, and soon will splash billions in new buildings MARCH
19 2018 Estimated fleet growth MARCH
20 Chinese Dry Bulk Import by Cargo million tonnes 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, All Others Total coal Grains Iron Ore "Other" comprises steel products, bauxite/alumina, petcoke, pulp/woodchip, logs, fertilizers, ferrous scrap, nickel, copper, chrome and manganese ores Source: Chinese Customs/SSY MARCH
21 Annual change in world steel production MARCH
22 DRY BULK MARKET REVIEW & OUTLOOK ASSOCARBONI 22 MARZO, 2018 MARCH 2018
23 2018 Estimated fleet growth MARCH
24 2018 Estimated fleet growth MARCH
25 2018 Estimated fleet growth MARCH
26 2018 Estimated fleet growth MARCH
27 2018 Estimated fleet growth MARCH
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