Canal Traffic performance Grain cargo through the Panama Canal Panama Canal Expansion program Conclusion

Transcription

1 July 30-31, 2013

2 Canal Traffic performance Grain cargo through the Panama Canal Panama Canal Expansion program Conclusion

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4 Canal began commercial operation 24/7 operation began Torrijos Carter & Neutrality Treaties Legal Framework & Panamanian Participation growth Canal Transfers to Panama Market Segmentation (New Toll Structure) Canal Expansion begins Canal Expansion completed US Sole Stewardship ( ) Treaty Execution & Dual Stewardship ( ) Panama Sole Stewardship and Corporate model ( )

5 Panama Canal Universal Measurement System (PC/UMS) One PC/UMS ton equals 100 cubic feet of cargo carrying capacity

6 Evolution of Panama Canal Vessel Tons (million PCUMS tons) Millions of PCUMS tons Historical events and the evolution of Panama Canal cargo 350 Trans-Alaska pipeline in production ( ) China enters WTO (2001) Great Recession begins Irak Invasion (2007) (2003) 2012 (est.) Suez Canal shut down (1967) Suez Canal re-opening (1975) Opening of Trans-isthmic pipeline (1983) Grains purchases by China (1995) Panama Canal expansion begins End of Great recession (2009) World War I ( ) Great Depression ( ) World War II ( ) Korean War ( ) Vietnam War ( ) First Oil crisis (1973) Second oil crisis (1979) Gulf War ( ) El Niño phenomenon & Asian crisis ( ) 0 Source: ACP, Ago 2012

7 Commodities Containerized cargo Grains Petroleum and products Ores and metals Coal Chemicals and petrochemicals Salt and minerals Iron ore and steel manufactures Fertilizers Machinery and equipment Refrigerated products Lumber and products Others TOTAL

8 Main Routes - FY 2012 Total (long tons) M East Coast US Asia 84.3M West Coast South America East Coast US 27.6M West Coast South America Europe 14.4M West Coast US Europe 9.7M West Coast Central America East Coast US 12.2M

9 Source: ACP database Transits by vessel type

10 Transits PC/UMS tonnage in millions Transits vs PC/UMS Tonnage FY 1914 FY , , , ,000 14, , , , Fiscal Year

11 Average Vessel Tonnage (PC/UMS tons) Oceangoing Vessels 9,931 FY ,940 FY ,943 FY 2012

12 Toll revenues millions (USD) Container ships Dry bulkers Tankers Vehicle carriers Reefers Cruise ships General cargo Others

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14 Grain Cargo through the Panama Canal

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17 DWT Cargo PCUMS ton Toll Revenues Other Marine Charges Total Canal Charges $ per ton 67,104 52,215 30, ,302 25, ,

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22 Source: Clarkson Research Studies

23 Modernization and Expansion Program

24 Budget Regular Investment Program Accumulated Investment Capex 2,508 Dredging (USD millions) 1,870 Bridge over Atlantic side 102 New visitor s center in Atlantic side FY Ground dams Hidraulic dredge Tugboats

25 Canal Expansion Program Components $ 5.25 billion investment 17.9 M m 3 Atlantic Ocean Increasing Gatun Lake s Maximum Operational Level Deepening and Widening of the Atlantic Entrance Post-Panamax Locks - Atlantic Side 26.7 m 27.1 m Post-Panamax Locks Pacific Side Deepening and Widening of Gatun Lake s and Gaillard Cut s Navigational Channels 8.7 M m 3 Access Channel to Post-Panamax Locks - Pacific Side 49 M m 3 Deepening and Widening of the Pacific Entrance Pacific Ocean

26 Pacific Access Channel 42.8 M m 3 excavated and dredged / 49 M m 3 End of last Contract: 31-Oct-2013 Pacific Entrance Deepening and Widening 8.6 M m 3 dredged End of Contract: 31-Aug-2012 Gatun Lake and Culebra Cut Deepening and Widening 21.6 M m 3 dredged / 26.5 M m 3 End: 11-Apr-2014 Locks Design and Construction 37.9 M m 3 excavated / 47.5 M m 3 End of Contract: 21-Oct-2014 Atlantic Entrance Deepening and Widening 17.6 M m 3 dredged / 17.6 M m 3 End of Contract: 24-Apr-2013 Raising Gatun Lake s Maximum Operational Level End: 30-Sep-2013 Expansion Program 30 June 2013 Material removed: M m 3 / 148 M m 3 Actual 78.1% 0% 50% 100% Actual 99% 0% 50% 100% Actual 85% 0% 50% 100% Actual 50% 0% 50% 100% Actual 99% 0% 50% 100% Actual 37% 0% 50% 100% Actual 60.4% 0% 50% 100%

27 Dimension of Vessels and Post Panamax Locks Existing Lock Post Panamax Conceptual Lock Length of lock chamber 305m (1,000 ) Length of lock chamber 427m (1,400 ) Maximum Ship beam 32.3m (106 ) Maximum Ship beam 49m (160 ) Maximum Ship length 294.3m (965 ) Maximum Ship length 385.8m (1,265 ) Maximum ship draft m (39.5 ) Maximum ship draft 15.2 m (50 )

28 Utilización de agua Post-Panamax Water Saving Basins Locks Operation Basin 1 Basin 2 Basin 3 With the reutilization water basins the new Locks will use 7% less water than the existing Locks New Locks Exisitng Locks 39

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30 Dry Bulk Vessels Costs in $/MT Grain Route US Gulf to Asia FY 2015 Vessel Size Fuel Charter Rates Port Canal Cargo Handling Inland Cost Total Cost Canal Cost Impact (%) Economies of Scale ($/MT) Savings from Economies of Scale Total 55,000 DWT $ $ $ 2.91 $ 2.89 $ 8.17 $ $ % 95,000 DWT $ 9.55 $ 9.67 $ 2.73 $ 2.33 $ 8.17 $ $ % $ (7.59) $ 649, Assumptions for FY 2015: Panama Canal tolls based on current tariff approved for FY 2014 (PC/UMS Pricing Structure) Utilization Rate 90% unless stated otherwise Current Fuel Prices as of November 2012 (HFO Singapore $605/MT) Charter Rate forecasted to FY2015 (Drewry) Cost savings generated by economies of scale by vessel sizes: 95,000 DWT vs. 55,000 DWT: $7.59/MT $649,322.8/Trip Vessel Size Canal as a Percentage of Commodity Price (%) 55,000 DWT 0.5% 95,000 DWT 0.4% *Soybeans represent 52% of the US Gulf grain trade to Asia via the Panama Canal. * Soybean price = $607/MT according to the December 2012 data of The World Bank. Source: ACP/PCRCAM

31 Delivered Dry Bulk Fleet for Expanded Canal Only Beam between m DWT Range Number of Ships Avg. DWT Avg Beam (m) Avg LOA (m) Avg Draft 40,000-50, , ,001-60, , ,001-70, , ,001-80, , ,001-90, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Total 1,425 (m) Total in Dry Bulk Fleet 5,373 Source: Fairplay, Dic 2011

32 On Order Dry Bulk Fleet for Expanded Canal Only Beam between m DWT Range Number of Ships Avg. DWT Avg Beam (m) Avg LOA (m) Avg Draft 40,000-50, ,001-60, , ,001-70, , ,001-80, , ,001-90, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Total 549 (m) Total in Dry Bulk Fleet 2,077 Source: Fairplay, Dic 2011

33 Drybulk Cargo projections in million long tons Main commodities Additional Var% tonnage Grains % Coal % Iron ore % Other dry bulks % Total % Source: Nathan Associates Inc. study with CRU International Ltd. and IHS Inc.under contract for ACP, september 2012

34 Increased cargo carrying capacity with larger vessels and more draft capacity More efficiencies in logistics networks and costs for shippers Opportunity for more flexibility to get advantage of demand surges. (China) Improved times

35 Project Evaluation New Opportunities LNG Terminal Ro-Ro Terminal Ship Repair Logistics Parks Bunkering Terminal Container Barging Top-Off Operations Corozal Container Terminal

36 Expansion of the Panama Canal ($5.25 billion) Transportation Infrastructure s Investment Program Total: B/. 2,677.6MM (as of February 2011) Highway System($2.7 B) ROAD REALIGNMENT PROJECTS Location: Panamá City Amount: B/ M SANTIAGO DAVID HWY EXPANSION Locaction: Chiriquí / Veraguas Amount : B/. 750 MM «METRO DE PANAMÁ» Location: Panamá City Amount: B/. 1,089 MM MADDEN COLÓN HWY EXPANSION Location: Colón Amount: B/ MM «METRO BUS» Location: Panamá City Amount: B/. 30M Ports Expansion ($1.2 billion) New container terminals ($600 million) New Metro ($1.8 B million) Intl Airport Expansion ($100 million) ARRAIJÁN CHORRERA HWY REFURBISHMENT Location: Panamá Oeste Amount: B/ MM DAVID BOQUETE HWY EXPANSION Location: Chiriquí Amount: B/ MM Under construction Awarded DIVISA CHITRÉ HWY EXPANSION Location: Herrera Amount: B/. 114 MM LA VILLA LAS TABLAS HWY EXPANSION Location: Los Santos Amount: B/ MM Real Estate Development ($10 billion) Hotel Development ($2,000 million) Cleaning of the Panama Bay Project ($310 million) Cemex Expansion ($500 million) Panama Pacific Special Economic Zone Agency ($600 million) Coastal Belt Highway Development ($200 million) Visit: proinvex.mici.gob.pa

37 Thank you! María Eugenia de Sánchez, Senior Trade Specialist, Traffic Projections/Drybulk Segment Office of Market Research and Analysis Panama Canal Authority For latest updates and videos, visit: Webcam: