Tanker supply until 2015 OECD working party on shipbuilding Paris by Manager Research and Projects Paris 4-5 December

Transcription

1 Tanker supply until 215 OECD working party on shipbuilding Paris by Manager Research and Projects Paris 4-5 December 28

2 Tanker contracting bn $/ bn $ Handy Panamax Aframaxes Suezmaxes VLCCs dwt Sep-8 Av Source. Clarkson Shipyard Monitor $ dwt

3 Tanker fleet, orderbook, SH tankers VLCC - 13 Suezmax - 39 Aframax - 99 Panamax , % 54% 54% 38% 29% SH - 16% Orders - 48% Fleet - 1% Average age 1.9 years 89% <2 years old 75% <15 years old 61% <1 years old

4 Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out 25, 59,999 dwt Max phase out Demolition Delveries Surplus % increase trade Surplus 2.5% increase trade Surplus 4% increase trade year Assumed balanced market end 27 Tonnage overhang Fleet 1, Orderb % Not DH %

5 Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Panamaxes 6, 79, dwt 7 Max phase out 6 5 Demolition 4 3 Delveries Assumed balanced market end 27 Surplus tonnage zero increase demand Surplus tonnage 2.5% increase demand Surplus tonnage 4% increase demand Fleet Orderb % Not DH %

6 Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Aframaxes 8, 119,999 dwt year Max phase out Deletions Delveries Surplus % increaser in demand Surplus 2.5% increaser in demand Surplus 4% increaser in demand Tonnage overhang Assumed balanced market end 27 Fleet Orderb % Not DH %

7 Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Suezmaxes 12, 199,999 dwt 28 Max phase out 24 2 Deletions 16 Delveries Surplus zero demand increase Surplus 2.5% demand increase Surplus 4% demand increase year Assumed balanced market end 27 Fleet Orderb % Not DH %

8 Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out VLCCs 2, dwt + 52 Max phase out Actual Deletions 28 Delveries 2 Surplus zero increase Surplus 2.5% increase Surplus 4% increase year Assumed removals ahead of phase out 28 Assumed balanced market end 27 Fleet Orderb % Not DH %

9 Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out All tankers > 25, dwt year Max phase out Deletions Delveries Surplus zero trade growth Surplus 2.5% trade growth Surplus 4% trade growth Removals in addition to phase out (conversions) Assumed balanced market end 27

10 Investment in new tankers Some $ 327 billion invested since 2 with the result that 96% of tanker fleet double hulled in 21* % dwt share: End End 3 End 4 End 5 73 End End 7 End 8 End 9 96 End 1 SH/DB/DS DH *Assuming only DB/DS tankers continue to trade beyond 21, some SH tanker will most probably continue until the age of 25 years old

11 Need for new contracts assuming 4% increase in demand VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax 25-59,999 dwt Average ordering Assumptions: All SH out by 21 (questionable) Balanced market end 27 (some slack existed) Current orderbook 24 years life time DH tankers as from 216

12 Tanker fleet development number????? 45 4 Projected Actual Tanker fleet increase 23-21: 61%

13 Conclusion

14 Conclusion A tanker surplus is building up unless demand is strong Crises probably means abating demand No need for additional tanker orders over the next couple of years

15 Appendix

16 The tanker market facing Financial and economic turmoil Abating demand Demand firstly powered by China Probably cancellation of contracts, Increasing fleet Scrapping up, as Conversions to dry bulk halted

17 SH trading beyond 21? Flag/Port States positions MARPOL 2 Trading until the age of 25 years Australia No China No EU No Mexico No Romania No S Korea No Philippines No UAE No no official note to IMO on Bahamas Yes Barbados Yes Liberia Yes Marshall Isl. Yes Panama Flag Yes Japan Yes Singapore Yes India Yes Hong Kong * Yes *2 years United States N/A OPA9

18 Tanker fleet development 518 number 5, dwt Number 5,3 44 4, , , ,3 Tanker fleet increase 23-21: 61%

19 Global Financial Crisis Tanker Fleet Removals 3 24 Conversions Scrapping 18? Conversions Small Aframax Suezmax ? VLCC Source: INTERTANKO

20 Single-hull phase-out regulation bn tonne-miles 12,5 Oil products Crude oil??? 1, 7,5 5, 2, P8 P1