The Multipurpose & Heavy Lift transportation outlook 18 th February 2015

Transcription

1 The Multipurpose & Heavy Lift transportation outlook 18 th February 215 BreakBulk Africa Congress Johannesburg, South Africa By Drewry Maritime Research 18 th February 215

2 2 Agenda The Multipurpose and Heavy Lift Fleet Cargo Demand Outlook

3 3 MPV fleet age profile as at January 1 st, 215 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, , 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, - 2-5, 5-1, 1-15, 15-2, 2-35, 35,+ Average dwt (RH axis)

4 4 Project carriers within the MPV fleet ( dwt) 35,+ dwt 2-35, dwt Dwt Sector 15-2, dwt 1-15, dwt 5-1, dwt 2-5, dwt - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 1, Multipurpose Heavy Lift Project carrier Premium Project carrier

5 5 Fleet development by vessel type ( dwt) 3, 2,5 Scheduled deliveries 2, 1,5 1, Multipurpose Vessels Project carriers inc HeavyLift 2,5 2, Scheduled demolitions 1,5 1, Multipurpose Vessels Project carriers inc HeavyLift

6 6 Fleet with current orderbook, as at January 1 st,215 35,+ 2-35, dwt sector 15-2, 1-15, 5-1, 2-5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 1, ' dwt Fleet OrderBook

7 7 Multipurpose fleet development to 216 ( dwt) 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Multipurpose Vessels Project carriers inc HeavyLift

8 8 Decline of simple multipurpose fleet % Newbuilding deliveries Project carriers: 72% % % 213 5% 214 Average for the last five years: 63% Average age of fleet sectors: Simple Multipurpose: 17 yrs Project Carrier: 9.5 yrs Premium Project Carrier: 8 yrs 47% of vessels on order as of Jan 1st 215 have confirmed heavy lift capability MPV share of project cargo estimated to be growing faster than share of breakbulk cargo - in the short term at least

9 9 Suggested fleet development by vessel type ( dwt) 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, , -1,5-2, -2, , 2, 15, 1, 5, PC deliveries (incl. HL) MPV deliveries (not incl. PC) MPV demolitions (not incl. PC) HL demolitions MPV fleet (not incl. PC, right axis) PC fleet (incl. HL, right axis)

10 1 Suggested development of dry cargo demand (million tonnes) 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, ,4 1,2 1, Total Dry Cargo Total Container cargo Total Bulk Cargo MPV Market share (rh axis), WTO

11 11 Suggested development of general cargo market (million tonnes) 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Non Container/ General Cargo Total Container Cargo, WTO

12 12 Development of MPV market share to 216 (million tonnes) 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Bulk cargo MPV share of bulk cargo General cargo MPV share of general cargo

13 13 Growth in the fleet versus growth in demand to % 12% 1% Demand growth slower over 215 8% 6% 4% Fleet stagnates over 215 2% % -2% Fleet growth Demand growth

14 14 Conclusions and challenges Steady fleet development expected for project carriers with new investment in eco designs and high spec vessels Demand for the sector continues to grow for both breakbulk and project cargo Encroachment by competing sectors still evident and unlikely to wane in the short term Project cargo demand dependent on developing economies

15 Thank You! Drewry BreakBulk Africa Drewry was founded in 197 as a provider of independent information and advice to the global maritime industry. Since then we have worked with over 4, clients in more than 1 countries. We are privately owned with research and advisory teams in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. London Drewry Christopher Street London EC2A 2BS,United Kingdom T: +44 () E: info@drewry.co.uk Delhi Drewry 29 Vipul Square, Sushant Lok- 1 Gurgaon 1222, India Telephone: /32 E: india@drewry.co.uk Singapore Drewry 15 Hoe Chiang Road, #13-2 Tower Fifteen Singapore T: E: singapore@drewry.co.uk Shanghai Drewry 555, 5th floor Standard Chartered Tower, 21 Shi Ji Avenue, Pudong District, Shanghai, China 212 T: +86 () Drew ry 213