PwC Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector Felix Kuhnert, European Automotive Leader 06 November 2012

Transcription

1 Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector Felix Kuhnert, European Automotive Leader

2 Agenda Page 1 Global Snapshot 1 2 Fasten your seatbelt! Turbulence in Europe ahead! 6 3 Growth takes place beyond Europe 13

3 Global Snapshot Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector 1

4 Section 1 Global Snapshot The latest IMF forecast on economic growth provides only limited room for Optimism New government debt [in percent of GDP] Forecast Economic growth [in percent] Forecast USA -11,2% -10,1% -8,7% -7,3% USA 2,4% 1,8% 2,2% 2,1% Euro-Zone -6,2% -4,1% -3,3% -2,6% Euro-Zone 2,0% 1,4% -0,4% 0,2% France -7,1% -5,2% -4,7% -3,5% France 1,7% 1,7% 0,1% 0,4% Germany -4,1% -0,8% -0,4% -0,4% Germany 4,0% 3,1% 0,9% 0,9% Italy -4,5% -3,8% -2,7% -1,8% Italy 1,8% 0,4% -2,3% -0,7% Spain -9,4% -8,9% -7,0% -5,7% Spain -0,3% 0,4% -1,5% -1,3% UK -9,9% -8,5% -8,2% -7,3% UK 1,8% 0,8% -0,4% 1,1% China -1,5% -1,2% -1,3% -1,0% China 10,4% 9,2% 7,8% 8,2% Brazil -2,7% -2,6% -2,1% -1,6% Brazil 7,5% 2,7% 1,5% 4,0% Source: International Monetary Fund, Die Welt Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector 2

5 Section 1 Global Snapshot Cultural tensions highlight risks beyond economic and financial predictables Source: International Herald Tribune, October 10th 2012 Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector 3

6 Section 1 Global Snapshot Europe continues to drive global discussions Global: Light Vehicle Assembly Outlook [ , vehicles in millions] , ,0 BRIC ,8 NAFTA Source: Autofacts Q4/2012 (preliminary) 0,8 JAPAN 1,6 ASEAN Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector 0,5 OTHER 1,2 EU 84, Global: Top Trending Automotive Issues [2012] European Economic Crisis North America Recovery China & India Slowing Down Japanese Yen Appreciation Brazil s Sluggish Economy Risk of global contagion Auto sector stronger than overall economy Large investments may not pay off in near-term Forex resulting in production shifts Expected to rebound in mid-term 4

7 Section 1 Global Snapshot Current situation highlights potential risks around the industry growth dynamics Global: Light Vehicle Assembly Outlook [ , vehicles in millions] m in 2018 Key Message General industry assumption is based on Global Economic Growth and Demand for Individual Mobility Investment strategies of OEMs and Suppliers mirror this overall positive expectation about market demand However, growth path might not be linear and impacted by economic slowdown or significant volatility in selected markets Such developments could be a potential stagnation in BRIC markets, downturn within NA and more prolonged contraction within the EU Overall, we consider a downside risk of approx. 10m units for 2013 ( ~ -15%) compared to Base Case Scenario Assembly Volume Downside Risk Source: Autofacts Q4/2012 Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector 5

8 Fasten your seatbelt! Turbulence in Europe ahead! Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector 6

9 Section 2 Fasten your seatbelt! Turbulence in Europe ahead! Registrations to fall for the fifth consecutive year. Recovery muted until EU+EFTA: New Car Registrations in the EU [vehicles in millions] ,0 14,7 14,5 13,8 13,6 12,5 12,5 13,1 14,0 14,6 14,9 15,2 10,0% 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% -2,0% -4,0% -6,0% -8,0% Key Message The lack of resolution of the Euro debt crisis causes wider economic effect and uncertainty leading to buying resistance. Market down 6.6% year to date. With more clarity and stability, people can start to plan again and we may start to see an improvement in demand from mid 2013 on. However, market may never recover to 2007 highs due to demographics, tighter financial environment and changing consumer preferences ,0% Registrations YoY change Source: ACEA; Autofacts Analysis Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector 7

10 Section 2 Fasten your seatbelt! Turbulence in Europe ahead! Diverse performance: GIPS-countries and Italy vs Northern countries EU: Registration Variance* [High and Low Scores since 1992 & Forecast 2012, vehicles in millions] 4 20-years-high (f) 1 * New EU = * GIPS = Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain * BeNeLux = Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg 0 * Main Nordic = Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden and their associated territories DE FR UK IT GIPS BeNeLux New EU Main Nordic AU&CH 20-years-low 20-years-high 20-years-low (f) Source: ACEA ; Autofacts Analysis Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector 8

11 Section 2 Fasten your seatbelt! Turbulence in Europe ahead! The pain is not equally shared EU: YoY Change of selected European automobile brands [Jan-Aug12 / Jan-Aug11; registrations in 000s] (20) (40) (60) (80) Press commentaries France wants to support domestic auto industry Three in every 10 new vehicles in Germany, including such premium brands as BMW, are sold not to customers, but to carmakers and their dealers all the growth had been manufactured by the manufacturers (100) (120) (140) (160) -137 Source: ACEA; EU27 + EFTA Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector 9

12 Section 2 Fasten your seatbelt! Turbulence in Europe ahead! Assembly change highlights problems some OEMs are facing, downside risks remain greater EU: Assembly Change Forecast By Main Group [ , vehicles in millions] VW Hyundai BMW Geely Daimler EU: Assembly with Downside Risk Outlook [2011, 2012, 2018, vehicles in millions] % 80% 60% RN* Ford GM ,9 m in % 20% PSA 10 0% Fiat ,7-0,5-0,3-0,1 0,1 0,3 0,5 0,7 Assembly Volume Downside Risk Utilisation (R-Axis) Source: Autofacts Q4/2012 (preliminary) Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector 10

13 Section 2 Fasten your seatbelt! Turbulence in Europe ahead! Capacity utilization Germany and UK vs. Italy and France EU: Production capacity [High and Low Scores since 1992 & Forecast 2012, in %] 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Germany France UK Italy P/ES BeNeLux New EU AU/FI/SE P/ES = Portugal, Spain BeNeLux = Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg AT/FI/SE= Austria, Finnland, Sweden 20-years-high (f) 20-years-low Source: ACEA / Autofacts Analysis Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector 11

14 Section 2 Fasten your seatbelt! Turbulence in Europe ahead! Current status: 15 major plants running at or below 50% capacity utilisation in 2012 EU: Plants of greater than 100k capacity and less than 50% capacity utilisation Type 16 Plants Capacity All 15 plants Assemby All 15 plants Utilisation All 15 plants 71,56% 61,70% 60,27% 60,21% 55,23% 42,28% 50,17% 55,25% 60,41% 64,99% 68,83% 68,82% According to Autofacts data and assembly forecasts for 2012, there will be 16 plants of greater than 100k units capacity running at less than 50% capacity utilisation. Collectively, these plants have an estimated capacity of 3.8m units and a forecast output of 1.6m units giving a utilisation rate of just 42%. The situation should improve with one of these plants confirmed for closure, some receiving new models and as a result of an improvement in the output as demand recovers. However, utilisation is forecast to remain well below industry benchmarks at just 69% by Source: Autofacts Q4/2012; *Renault-Nissan Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector 12

15 Growth takes place beyond Europe 3.3 Growth projection of global real GDP ( , in market rates) Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector 13

16 Section 3 Growth takes place beyond Europe BRIC-countries: major growth continues to be driven by the usual suspects BRIC-countries: annual sales and world ranking [2011 and 2012(f), vehicles in millions] ,7 2,9 3,0 3,1 3,4 3,5 BRIC-countries: annual assembly and world ranking [2011 and 2018 in millions, ranking 2011 and 2018] 12th 9th 7th 6th 6th 1,8 3,3 5,2 3,2 3,5 4th 7,4 16,6 Russia India Brazil China (f) 15,4 Russia Brazil India China 1st 17,2 27,3 Key Message Brazil: World Cup 2014 and Olympic Games 2016 support massive $300bn infrastructure investment. Auto industry investing $30bn. Russia now seeing massive investment push by foreign OEMs as market demand recovers and legislation benefits investment. India will more than double its production up to 7,6 Million in 2018 China to extend its no.1 position, accounting for 27% of global assembly Source: Ward s Automotive Reports, Autofacts Q4/2012 (preliminary) Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector 14

17 Section 3 Growth takes place beyond Europe Assembly North America The North American landscape continues to be characterised by the localisation of foreign brand assembly to the region. Forex risk mitigation and the desire to cater product to an increasingly competitive market remain the primary drivers of this trend. NA: Light Vehicle Assembly Outlook (millions) Assembly Volume Excess Capacity Automotive Utilisation Global (R-Axis) Future of the Auto Sector 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% NA: Current Alliance Group Assembly Outlook* 2011, 2012, 2018 (millions) GM Ford Fiat Toyota Honda RN Hyundai VW Other *RN = Renault-Nissan 1,02 0,93 0,93 1,53 1,74 2,33 2,61 2,99 3,80 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4, Source: Autofacts 2012 Q4 Data Release

18 Section 3 Growth takes place beyond Europe ASEAN-countries offer significant growth potential trade barriers need to be tackled Top5 ASEAN-Countries: new car registrations [2006 and 2012*] CAGRs [in%] Vietnam Top5 ASEAN-Countries: LV assembly [2006 and 2012] 2012* 3,139,449 units Philippines ,659,197 units ,632,361 units Malaysia Thailand Indonesia ,145,330 units Source: AAF, DB Research; *2012: Projections based on calculations, Autofacts 2012/Q3 preliminary Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector 16

19 Section 3 Growth takes place beyond Europe Beyond the sea the majority of the growth will not take place in the EU, but overseas. Global: Contribution to Growth by Region [ ] EU: 5.3% East Europe: 6.5% Share of Assembly Production [in %] New Triade* Total markets 84% Mio. 16% NAFTA: 16.2% Developing Asia-Pacific: 60.0% % 56 Mio. 22% South America: 8.6% Middle East & Africa: 2.4% Developed Asia-Pacific: 1.0% 47% Mio. 53% Source: Autofacts Q4/2012 (preliminary); * incl. South Korea Automotive Global Future of the Auto Sector 17

20 Thank you for your attention! Vorsitzender des Aufsichtsrats: WP StB Dr. Norbert Vogelpoth Vorstand: WP StB Prof. Dr. Norbert Winkeljohann WP StB Dr. Peter Bartels WP StB CPA Markus Burghardt StB Prof. Dr. Dieter Endres WP StB Prof. Dr. Georg Kämpfer WP StB Harald Kayser WP RA StB Dr. Jan Konerding WP StB Andreas Menke StB Marius Möller WP StB Martin Scholich Sitz: Frankfurt am Main Amtsgericht Frankfurt am Main HRB PricewaterhouseCoopers AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft is a member of PricewaterhouseCoopers International, a Company limited by guarantee registered in England and Wales.