sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO

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1 The economy and the banking sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO January 2006

2 Recent performance of the economy and prospects Factors behind the period of slow growth Challenges to the Banking Sector Regulatory changes and effects of the economic environment Risk management (credit, liquidity, capital) Structural problems and long term economic potential

3 Portugal Euro Area(*) GDP growth rates (%) Diferential Portugal vs. Euro Area

4 Factors behind the period of slow growth Cyclical pattern of slight overheating and subsequent deceleration associated with joining a monetary union coming from a regime of higher inflation Pro-cyclical fiscal policy External demand shocks Significance of the oil shock Competitiveness problems in the context of enlargement and globalisation

5 Investiment and domestic savings rate (% of GDP) Investment rate Savings rate

6 Macroeconomic policy stance Short term interest rates Primary deficit (ciclical adjusted without one-off measures)

7 3,0 Stability and growth programme Main direct effects of consolidation measures (a) 2,5 As a percentage of GDP 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0-2,0 0,5 1,1 Revenue 0,4 0,3 Expenditure 0,2-0,1-0,3-0,3-0,6-0,5-1,8-3, Accumulated Source: Stability and growth programme, June 2005 (a) Yearly, direct effects of discretionary measures included in the SGP.

8 Growth rates of GDP, Domestic Demand and External Demand directed to the Portuguese economy External demand 9 Domestic demand GDP

9 Growth rates of external demand and portuguese exports External Demand Exports market quota Exports -6

10 Competitiveness Indicators: relative ULC s, CPI and export prices with the 13 main trading partners (1995=100) ULC's (total) ULC's (manufacturing) (Source: BP AMECO e OECD) CPI Relative export prices

11 Technological content of Exports (% of total ) Low technology High technology Variation Euro Area Ireland Holand Finland Germany France Austria Portugal Italy Belgium Spain ECB Occasional Paper Competitiveness and export performance of the euro area No. 30, 2005

12 Composition of Exports Variação Agriculture & Food, Wood,Cork, Paper, Leather, Textiles, Clothing, Footwear Electronics, Machines, Transport equipment, Chemicals, Energy Other 61,1 % 40,2% -20,9 p,p 27,0 % 45,8% +18,8 p,p 11,8 % 14,0% +2,2 p,p

13 Bank of Portugal s Economic Forecasts Growth rates (%) GDP , ,0 Private Consumption Public Consumption Gross Fixed Investment Domestic Demand Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Inflation rate (HICP)

14 Recent performance of the economy and prospects Factors behind the period of slow growth Challenges to the Banking Sector Regulatory changes and effects of the economic environment Risk management (credit, liquidity, capital) Structural problems and long term economic potential

15 Credit to households and non-financial firms

16 18 Return on Equity (ROE) (a) 16 Percentagemg (a): ROE defined as net profit over average own funds (consolidated accounts)

17 Net Interest Inome (in % of average Total Assets) Fees and commissions in % of average Total Assets % Percentageage

18 Staff Costs in % of average Total Assets Consolidated accounts

19 Cost / Income Ratio (in %)

20 10 Interbank liabilities (net of interbank assets) In % of Total Assets Total Banking Sector Domestic Banks

21 Ratio of high liquid assets over interbank liabilities Dez Dez Dez Dez Dez Dez Dez Note: High liquid assets include Interbank Assets (Banks and Central Banks) and Public Sector securities.

22 Non Performing Loans in % of Total Credit Total Households - total Households - housing Non Financial Firms Dez-97 Dez-98 Dez-99 Dez-00 Dez-01 Dez-02 Dez-03 Dez

23 HOUSEHOLDS INDEBTEDNESS AND INTEREST PAID As a percentage of disposable income Indebtedness Interest paid (right-hand scale) Per cent Per cent E 4.0

24 The aggregate debtto-assets ratio increased but net wealth is estimated at a comfortable 400 percent of disposable income. Household debt is mainly comprised of housing mortgages, with direct coverage by nonfinancial assets (housing in particular for owner occupation).

25 10 8 HOUSE PRICES IN PORTUGAL year-on-year growth rates House prices - nominal year-on-year growth rates House prices - real year-on-year growth rates 6 Percentage Dez-94 Dez-95 Dez-96 Dez-97 Dez-98 Dez-99 Dez-00 Dez-01 Dez-02 Dez-03 Dez Source: Confidencial Imobiliário New sletter.

26 Total Provisions in % of Non Performing loans Dez.95 Dez.96 Dez.97 Dez.98 Dez.99 Dez.00 Dez.01 Dez.02 Dez.03 Dez.04

27 15 Regulatory Capital Ratio (own funds)

28 Capital Access Index (2005) 1. U.K. 2. Hong-Kong 3. Singapore 4. USA 5. Sweden 6. Denemark 7. Australia 8. Norway 9. Finland 10. Ireland 10. Canada 12. Switzerland 13. Netherlands 14. New 15.Germany 16.Malasya 17. Spain 18. Chile 19.Japan 20.France 21.Estonia 22.Austria 23.South Korea 24.South Africa 25.Taiwan 26.Portugal 27.Israel 28.Belgium 29.Greece 30.Thailand 31.Italy Source: Milken Institute, USA 8,01 7,84 7,77 7,75 7,62 7,61 7,6 7,47 7,46 7,42 7,42 7,39 7,2 7,04 6,93 6,88 6,8 6,78 6,76 6,62 6,59 6,41 6,37 6,36 6,34 6,31 6,19 6,17 5,85 5,71 5,66 «Ranks 121 countries according to the ability of new and existing entrepreneurs to finance their strategies and investments for job creation and capital formation»

29 Recent performance of the economy and prospects Factors behind the period of slow growth Challenges to the Banking Sector Regulatory changes and effects of the economic environment Risk management (credit, liquidity, capital) Structural problems and long term economic potential

30 Growth competitiveness index ( WORLD FORUM 2005) Total Quality of Institutions Technological absortion Macroeconomic environment Finland USA Sweden Denmark Taiwan Singapore Iceland Switzerland Norway Australia Portugal Spain Ireland Greece

31 World Bank Indicators of «Governance» (2004) Voice and accountability Political stability Government efficiency Quality of regulation Rule of law Control of corruption Germany Portugal Spain Poland Germany Portugal Spain Poland Germany Portugal Spain Poland Germany Portugal Spain Poland Germany Portugal Spain Poland Germany Portugal Spain Poland Source: World Bank Governance Indicators for , 2005

32 Index of economic freedom (Fraser Institute 2003) Hong Kong Singapore USA New Zealand Switzerland U.K. Canada Ireland Australia Luxembourg Unit. Arab Estonia Netherlands Iceland Austria Denmark Finland Germany Belgium Chile Costa Rica Sweden Bahrain Taiwan Norway Botswana Japan Spain Portugal Cyprus France Greece Lithuania Malta 34º in127 countries

33 OECD Regulation Index ( ) Source:OECD «PRODUCT MARKET REGULATION IN OECD COUNTRIES: 1998 TO 2003»

34 OECD Regulation Index ( ) Source:OECD «PRODUCT MARKET REGULATION IN OECD COUNTRIES: 1998 TO 2003»

35 OECD Regulation Index ( ) Source:OECD «PRODUCT MARKET REGULATION IN OECD COUNTRIES: 1998 TO 2003»

36 Recent performance of the economy and prospects Factors behind the period of slow growth Challenges to the Banking Sector Regulatory changes and effects of the economic environment Risk management (credit, liquidity, capital) Structural problems and long term economic potential

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