North America Light Vehicle Outlook

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "North America Light Vehicle Outlook"

Veronica Booker
6 years ago
Views:

1 North America Light Vehicle Outlook July 18, 2012 Guido Vildozo Manager, Latin America IHS Automotive

3 Global Light Vehicle SAAR Volume is slowing down SAAR Index = 1 for year Lehman Bros Trigger (Sept) Japan Crisis YTD May Est up 4.6% Apr-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 Synchronized Global Crash in November 08 Dec-08 Aug-08 Apr-08 Dec-07 Aug-07 Apr-07 Dec-06 Aug-06 Apr-06 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 June12 World Index of Seasonal Adjusted Annualised Sales Rates Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

4 Global Light Vehicle Sales Outlook Regional SAARs Seasonally Adjusted Selling Rates Indexed 2007= Jul Sales Level Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Lehman Bros Collapse Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 Jan-08 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 CE EE China J/K NA SA WE Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Global Light Vehicle Sales Outlook 2010 2012 Sales Volume 83 Sales in Millions 78 73 68 72.5 Million 75.6 Million 1.3 Million 1.6 Million 863,000 516,000 216,000 +4.1% 99,000-325,000-1.2 Million 78.

5 Global Light Vehicle Sales Outlook Sales Volume 83 Sales in Millions Million 75.6 Million 1.3 Million 1.6 Million 863, , , % 99, , Million 78.7 Million Greater China North America Japan/ Korea South Asia South America Central/ Eastern Europe Middle East/ Africa Western Europe 2012 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Global Sales Sales in Millions 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2009 2010 2011 May 2012 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Japan/Korea led the regional ranking, up by 38%, with Japan mounting an impressive 55% rise in demand. North America follows with sales rising a very decent 12.8%. South Asia remains in recovery mode, largely due to production and distribution disruptions in 2011 that resulted from the heavy flooding in Thailand.

6 Global Sales Sales in Millions May 2012 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. YTD 2012 Global Sales Change YTD 2012 global light vehicle sales rose 5.5% versus YTD Japan/Korea led the regional ranking, up by 38%, with Japan mounting an impressive 55% rise in demand. North America follows with sales rising a very decent 12.8%. South Asia remains in recovery mode, largely due to production and distribution disruptions in 2011 that resulted from the heavy flooding in Thailand. For full-year 2012, we penciled in 78.7 million units, up a further 4.1%, actually a shade higher than our previous forecast. For 2013 and 2014, we downgraded our expectations. Until the end of the forecast horizon in 2019, the global light vehicle sales market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3% to reach million units. 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Year-Over-Year Change

Global Production 100 Global Production Change 30% Production in Millions 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Year-Over-Year Change 0 2009 2010 2011 May 2012 YTD 2012 Q2 2012

7 Global Production 100 Global Production Change 30% Production in Millions % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Year-Over-Year Change May 2012 YTD 2012 Q % In May 2012, global production is estimated at 6.84 million units, up 12.3% versus 2011 levels, and a weak comparison due to the immediate aftermath of the Japanese tsunami and earthquake. YTD 2012 output is estimated at million units, up 9.9%. Full-year 2012 output is expected to reach million units, the negative trend partially obscured by the positive development year-to-date. Growth is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2013 and reach million units as the economic woes in Europe continue. Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Regional and Global Production SAAR Rates 26 North America Europe China Japan/Korea Global 90 Trend Cycle Production SAAR in Millions 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 Chrysler and GM Bankruptcies Europe

8 Regional and Global Production SAAR Rates 26 North America Europe China Japan/Korea Global 90 Trend Cycle Production SAAR in Millions Chrysler and GM Bankruptcies Europe Supported by Luxury Exports Earthquake in Japan Disrupts Production North America Stabilizes Economic Uncertainty Slows Growth Trend Cycle Global Production SAAR in Millions 4 Mar 2009 Jun 2009 Sep 2009 Dec 2009 Mar 2010 Jun 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Sep 2011 Dec 2011 Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sep Dec 2012 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

9 Greece Exit Lowers Global Sales by 1m units for 2013 (Units in Millions Light Vehicles) 95 Q1 GR Forecast 3/4m units Lost in 2014 (90% Europe) Debt Crisis Returns Greece Exits Euro mid Japan supply constrains Auto sales June 2012 Fcast 1m Million Unit Downgrade Due to Greek Exit Assumption Initial Run for m out of US forecast Now 14.8m 0.62 m out of Europe Now 18.3m 0.26 m out of BRIC s-mainly China, (Rus and India slightly higher) -5% -4% 13% 4.3% 4% 4.4% 7% Source: Company Reports, Trade Associations, IHS Automotive. Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Global LV Sales: Changing of the Guard Long-Term Growth Only In Emerging Markets Annual Light Vehicle Sales (in millions) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 76% 2001 Share of World Sales in Triad

10 Global LV Sales: Changing of the Guard Long-Term Growth Only In Emerging Markets Annual Light Vehicle Sales (in millions) % 2001 Share of World Sales in Triad -Mature Markets BRICs Mature Markets % Change : BRICs +69%, CAGR = 6.7% Mature +18%, CAGR =1.9% % Note: Mature=US, Canada, W Europe, Japan BRICs=Brazil, Russia, India, China Source: IHS Data Insights 10 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

11 World Real GDP : Growing a little slower than previous forecasts and still being Re-distributed Between 2007 to 2024 Real Per Capita GDP will grow by 33% in OECD countries (down from 36% Last year) but 150% in non OECD countries 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 Bn US $ (2005) 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 28% 38% 35,000 30,000 19% 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 March 12 OECD Non-OECD Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

12 Recent Signposts to Vortex :- Undercurrents of Protectionism China US Solar PV tariffs US Vs China Steel Wheel Tariffs US Built Vehicle Tariffs China : Rare Earth Policy India Raises Auto Import Tariffs on CBU in Recent Budget Brazil Backtracks on FTA with Mexico imposes $1.5bn (100k Vol) quota on imports from Mexico Raises IPI by 30% on imported vehicles (65% local content) New Industrial Policy Brazil Maior adds requirement for localisation of 12 identified major auto component target of 8 of the 12 by 2013 must be local/regional and 12 of 12 by 2018 Argentina 1:1 Auto import measures announced in 2011, Nationalisation movement (YPF Oil company) Spain, EU Retaliate Import delays orchestrated, increasing delays from 30 days to 3-4mths Argentina Renege on Bilateral auto trade with Mexico Luxury Tax started earlier this year from 10 to 25% on cars over $35K Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

13 US - Auto Market Overview Pent Up demand is driving the auto recovery The first quarter (the high point for the year) was outstanding but unsustainable Retail, rather than fleet, remains the main driver, although February saw more fleet volume Sales have improved, as Japanese cars return to the showrooms, but there are still some issues of availability High gasoline prices actually helped sales (trade-in gas guzzlers) Incentive spending has risen modestly, as inventories rebuild, but there is more pricing discipline today Auto credit availability is improving Supply constraints are becoming a concern The used car and truck market remains very strong Cost pressures will return but industry profits are good Bottom Line A weak economy will hurt the release of pent up demand, slowing not derailing, the auto market recovery Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 13

Pure Raw Material Cost in a Car Debt Crisis Lowers Input Costs Steel Aluminium Plastic Resins Rubber Glass Iron US Vehicle @ 3500 Lbs In $ Latest

14 Pure Raw Material Cost in a Car Debt Crisis Lowers Input Costs Steel Aluminium Plastic Resins Rubber Glass Iron US 3500 Lbs In $ Latest Data Point March 2012 European 2700 Lbs in Euro (Excludes Fuel, Processing and Transportation costs) Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

16 New Auto Loans Delinquency Rates 4.0 (% - Accounts past due 30 days or more) Direct (Bank) Loans Months Indirect (Dealer) Loans Source: American Bankers Association Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 16

17 New Vehicle Buyers Average Credit Score Avg. Score Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% Source: CNW Marketing FICO SCORE % UNDER 670 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 17

18 New Auto Loan Application Approvals 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Source: CNW Marketing Unweighted Average of Prime, Near and Subprime Months Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 18

20 Incentives to MSRP 26 (Percent) /1/2001 1/1/2002 1/3/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011/1/2012 CNW Marketing Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. Months

21 100% 90% Residual Value Index (Index = Lease contract residual value versus CNW estimate of residual at end of lease term) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 GM Ford Chrysler Industry Toyota Honda Nissan Source: CNW Marketing Months Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 21

22 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Lease Penetration (Share) 29% 28% 27% 26% 25% 24% 23% 22% 21% 20% 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 Source: CNW Marketing Leases by Month Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 22

U.S. Light Vehicle Inventory Units 4,500 (Units in thousands) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1990 1992 1994

U.S. Light Vehicle Inventory Days Supply 120 (Days Supply) 110 100 90 80 Light Trucks 70 60 50 40 Cars 30 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96

24 U.S. Light Vehicle Inventory Days Supply 120 (Days Supply) Light Trucks Cars 30 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 1/1/20041/1/20061/1/20081/1/20101/1/2012 Months Seasonally Adjusted Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 24

25 United States Car & Truck Sales, SAAR 22 (Units in millions) Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Actual Forecast Months Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 25

Gasoline Retail Price - All Grades Per Gallon 450 (Cents) 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 2004 2005

29 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales 2008: 13.2M units 2009: 10.4M units 2010: 11.6M units 2011: 12.7M units 2012: 14.3M units 2013: 14.8M units 2014: 15.6M units 2015: 16.2M units 18 (Units in millions) June 2012 Forecast July 2011 Forecast Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 29

34 U.S. Sales By Car Segment (54%) 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% (Light Vehicle Share) Compact Full-Size Micro + Mini Mid-Size Sports Subcompact Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 34

36 North America - Light Vehicle Production Millions (Units in millions) ` (Share of NA Prod.) 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% Volume - L Canada- R Mexico - R Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 36

40 Autos - The Bottom Line The auto industry is in its best shape to withstand economic adversity Auto credit quality is outstanding, availability will improve this year Industry pricing power will continue to improve Leasing is on the way back Small cars will gain market share but crossovers will remain very popular Higher fuel economy standards are the next big challenge (opportunity) The industry has done a great job reducing capacity and cost, but we can t rest on our laurels Initially replacement demand drives volume, longer term demographics sustain sales Eventually the economy will support volume levels that are more normal for the auto industry The industry has become more profitable and once volume returns, it will become even more so Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 40

41 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Seasonally Adjusted Annual Selling Rate - SAAR 1.3 (Units in Millions) Monthly Annual Average 0.3 1/1/1997 1/1/1999 1/1/2001 1/1/2003 1/1/2005 1/1/2007 1/1/2009 1/1/2011 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 41

42 Mexico - Light Vehicle Sales 1,500,000 1,400,000 Units Used car imports and credit availability limit growth 30% 1,300,000 20% 1,200,000 1,100,000 10% 1,000,000 0% 900,000-10% 800, ,000-20% 600, Light Veh -L Annual Change -R -30% Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 42

43 Mexico Market Share 100% Percentage 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nissan grows in coming years Others Suzuki Daimler BMW Mitsubishi Mazda Honda Toyota Chrysler Ford Volkswagen General Motors Renault/Nissan Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

47 Mexico to Brazil ACE 55 Imports from Mexico [US$] Imports from Mexico [Units] Vehicle price per unit [US$] ,500,00 1,260,900,000 2,070,000,000 1,450,000,000 1,560,000,000 1,640,000,000 60,138 76, ,745 93, , , ,755 16,429 17,003 15,500 15,600 15,700 Very little impact YOY to 2012 figures, but we had expected K. Impact will be hardest for 2013 and Difficult to compete after quota is hit, so far Asians are down 20-40% Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 47

49 Brazil Outlook Summary Real GDP Growth (%) Consumer Price Inflation (%) Exchange Rate per USD* Current-Account Balance** *Annual average, **Billions of US dollars Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Nominal GDP per Capita 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 (US $,000) GDP per Capita has broken US $10,000, allowing for

Brazil Market Outlook 8.0 7.0 Million Units Promising growth outlook with incredible potential 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.

53 Brazil Market Share 100% Percentage 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Big four continue to loose 20% 10% 0% Others Chery Jianghuai Mitsubishi Honda Toyota PSA Hyundai Renault/Nissan Ford General Motors Volkswagen Fiat Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

56 Brazil is using the IPI Tax Changes to increase local manufacturing (Manufacturer Wholesale Tax) OEMs with local content OEMs that don t meet requirements IPI IPI Passenger Cars Fuel Type Up to 1000cc Flex-Fuel 7 37 Up to 1000cc Gasoline cc to 2000cc Flex-Fuel cc to 2000cc Gasoline cc Flex-Fuel cc Gasoline HCVs NA 30 Light Commercial Vehicles (PUPs/Vans) NA 4 34 Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

57 Brazil New Regional Content Requirements rely heavily on the types of components Brazil has raised the IPI (manufacturers wholesale tax) by 30 percentage points. The government s plan, Brasil Maior it aiming at protecting the industry. An OEM may be exempt from the new IPI if it has 65% regional content and meets eight out of these 12 requirements: Assembly Chassis assembly Chassis production with regional parts Corrosion treatment and paint Drivetrain/steering assembly Engine production Final assembly of cabins and accessorizing Plastic Injection Stamping Transmission production Welding Research and Development Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 57

Production: Recent Investments Prepare for Market Growth 7.50 6.50 5.50 Million Units 5 MM capacity by 2015 Two new plants in 2012: Hyundai, Toyota 4.50 3.50 2.

59 Production: Recent Investments Prepare for Market Growth Million Units 5 MM capacity by 2015 Two new plants in 2012: Hyundai, Toyota Light Vehicle Production Capacity Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 59

60 Bottom Line With the exception of Western Europe, global demand will continue to gather momentum BRICs will outsell TRIAD (USA, WE and Japan) within a few years Mexico has to explore new opportunities given this scenario, South America presents great potential The US has turned the corner, promising outlook for sales and production Mexican demand has broken the million unit mark! Production is promising but big uncertainties lie in the future Copyright 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

61 Thank You for Your Participation! Guido Vildozo Manager, Latin America IHS Automotive Contact: 24 Hartwell Ave Lexington, MA USA Ph: Em:

US Light Vehicle Outlook. George Magliano Senior Principal Auto Economist Americas, HIS May 31, 2012

US Light Vehicle Outlook. George Magliano Senior Principal Auto Economist Americas, HIS May 31, 2012 US Light Vehicle Outlook George Magliano Senior Principal Auto Economist Americas, HIS May 31, 2012 External Shocks to The Global Auto Industry - A Critical Timeline Sub-Prime Crisis Bear Sterns Oil Hits