Overview of China s Heavy Commercial-Vehicle Market

Transcription

1 AUTOMOTIVE Overview of China s Heavy Commercial-Vehicle Market 22 September 2016 Hannover, Germany Jia Li, Senior Analyst, IHS Automotive , Jia.Li@ihsmarkit.com

2 2 Contents 1. Global Overview 2. China Truck Demand and Production Outlook Short-term China Truck Demand Outlook Long-term China Truck Demand Outlook China Truck Production 3. China Truck Market Analysis Product Upgrading and Market Trend OEM Competition 4. Conclusion 2

3 3 China Economy in the World Percent Share of World Nominal GDP CHINA US JAPAN GERMANY Source: IHS 3

4 4 China Heavy Truck in the World Unit: one thousand Unit: one thousand US % % % % % 0 8% 18% 16% 0% 100% India 100% 80% % % % 0 8% 10% 11% 14% 0% Unit: one thousand China 100% % % 60% % 40% 30% 29% 20% 0 0%

5 5 China OEMs in the World Unit: one thousand Global Truck Sales >6t: 2010 to 2015 Average DAIMLER 344(13%) DONGFENG 233 (8.8%) FAW VOLVO GROUP GLOBAL VOLKSWAGEN TRUCK & BUS TATA CNHTC PACCAR BAIC WEICHAI POWER 184 (6.9%) 167 (6.3%) 165 (6.2%) 154(5.8%) 154 (5.8%) 129 (4.8%) 109 (4.1%) 100 (3.8%) ? 5

6 6 China Truck Product in the World China Truck Export (>6t): Sales Volume and Destination OTHERS NIGERIA COLUMBIA ANGOLA PHILIPPINES IRAN ALGERIA MYANMAR VIETNAM

7 7 Content 1. Global Overview 2. China Truck Demand and Production Outlook Short-term China Truck Demand Outlook Long-term China Truck Demand Outlook China Truck Production 3. China Truck Market Analysis Product Upgrading and Market Trend OEM Competition 4. Conclusion 7

8 8 China - Short-term Heavy Truck Demand Negative factor: Weak macroeconomics situation Current Scenario Positive factor: Low base effect in 2015 Replacement demand 1 0,75 HDT 614,173 (11.5%) 0,5 550,716 (-27%) 0,25 MDT 200,414 (-19.1%) 211,485 (5.5%)

9 Percent change from a year earlier 9 China - Short-term Macroeconomics Outlook Macroeconomics Parameters Chinese government sets a GDP growth target of 6.5%- 7% in Jan-12 Oct-12 Jul-13 Apr-14 Jan-15 Oct-15 Source: EBSCN,IHS FAI Industrial Output Exports Retail China Heavy Truck Monthly Sales Economic growth in Q was unchanged at 6.7% y/y, the slowest two quarters since Q The state-led investment was accelerated in Q2, and consumer market was stable. However, private investment and export deteriorated from the first quarter Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. The heavy truck sales grew with a positive growth rate of 14.8% in the first 6 months of

10 10 China - Short-term Heavy Truck Demand Negative factor: Weak macroeconomics situation Current Scenario Positive factor: Low base effect in 2015 Replacement demand 1 0,75 HDT 614,173 (11.5%) 0,5 550,716 (-27%) 0,25 MDT 200,414 (-19.1%) 211,485 (5.5%)

11 11 China s Long-term Heavy Truck Demand Becomes Stable Truck Sales (Units) HDT MDT HDT + MDT Compound Annual Growth Rate: 28.1%

12 12 NS5 Implementation Timeline (MHCV) Time Implementation 1 st 2 rd 3 th 2016/04/ /01/ /07/01 Vehicle Heavy commercial vehicles with application of City bus Sanitation trucks Post vehicles Heavy commercial vehicles with application of City bus Sanitation trucks Post vehicles All heavy commercial Vehicles Region Range 11 eastern cities and provinces: Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Liaoning, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan Nationwide Nationwide Source: Ministry of Environmental Protection 12

13 13 Real GDP and Its Components 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% GDP Growth Consumption Growth Investment Growth Export Growth 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 13

14 14 China s Long-term Heavy Truck Demand Becomes Stable Truck Sales (Units) HDT MDT HDT + MDT Compound Annual Growth Rate: 28.1%

15 HDT Sales Sophistication Developments: unit 840 HDT Total Advanced Budget High-End

16 China MDT Sales Sophistication: unit 280 MDT Total Advanced Budget High-End

17 17 China Production Developments: Truck Production (Units) HDT MDT HDT + MDT

18 18 Overcapacity in China Implications % % Production Capacity % Production Volume Capacity Utility Rate % % % % 18

19 19 Chinese Truck Market: Consolidation is required Over-Capacity + Market Correction = Consolidation? 19

20 20 Contents 1. Global Overview 2. China Truck Demand and Production Outlook Short-term China Truck Demand Outlook Long-term China Truck Demand Outlook China Truck Production 3. China Truck Market Analysis Product Upgrading and Market Trend OEM Competition 4. Conclusion 20

21 21 Joint Venture Status of Top 10 China Heavy Truck OEMs Rank OEM 2014 (HDT) Joint Ventures Partner Sales Market share % 1 Dongfeng 155, yes Volvo 2 CNHTC 121, yes MAN 3 FAW 116, no 4 FOTON 109, yes Daimler 5 Shaanxi Auto 104, no 6 JAC 39, yes Navistar 7 Hongyan yes Iveco 8 Hauling 18, no 9 Dayun 16, no 10 North Benz 11, no Total 718,

22 22 Product Upgrading in Emerging Markets Under Way Highly-efficient Tractor for Long-distance Transportation Engine (More Powerful & Fuel-efficient ) Cabin (More Comfortable) Fuel Tank (Bigger Volume) Lightweight Internet of Vehicles Truck Product Upgrading 22

23 23 Structure of Heavy Truck Market Unit: thousand % % 41% 40% 38% 38% 36% 31% 28% % 40% 35% 29% 30% 34% 38% 46% 49% % 24% 31% 32% 28% 27% 24% 23% 0% Cargo Truck Tractor Chassis Chassis Tractor Cargo Truck 23

24 24 Structure of Tractor Segment Unit: thousand % 7% 10% 11% 14% 14% 15% 22% % % 40% 92% 88% 88% 75% 71% 77% 67% % 70 0% 2% 2% 1% 12% 15% 8% 11% kg 25000~40000kg >40000kg >40000kg 25000~40000kg 25000kg 24

25 25 Truck Engine Fuel Trend Fuel Type in HDT Segment Fuel Type in MDT Segment 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% % ELECTRICITY NG DIESEL GASOLINE NG ELECTRICITY DIESEL 25

26 26 HDT Market Competition Landscape 100% 15,4% 16,9% 14,7% 13,8% 13,1% 11,4% 11,5% 80% 2,5% 10,7% 3,8% 11,8% 4,1% 4,2% 5,4% 13,2% 13,1% 14,1% 5,4% 6,3% 14,7% 14,2% Others 60% 10,1% 12,2% 13,7% 14,9% 14,7% 13,6% 11,5% JAC Shaanxi Auto 22,7% 18,0% 16,6% 16,9% 15,7% 15,7% 20,6% Foton 40% FAW 20% 19,6% 16,2% 17,1% 15,6% 16,3% 17,9% 16,8% CNHTC Dongfeng 18,9% 21,1% 20,6% 21,4% 20,9% 21,3% 19,1% 0% (Jan.-Jul.) 26

27 27 100% MDT Market Competition Landscape 80% 60% 16% 17% 22% 11% 8% 7% 10% 8% 5% 6% 9% 8% 19% 5% 5% 6% 8% 14% 4% 5% 8% 11% 11% 13% 5% 3% 4% 9% 8% 6% 20% 18% Others Nanjun JAC 4% 6% 10% 10% 11% 13% 3% 3% Qingling 40% 15% 5% 8% 14% 16% 18% 20% 21% 20% Lifan CNHTC FAW 20% 33% 28% 26% 28% 26% 28% 28% Dongfeng 0% (Jan.-Jul.) 27

28 28 Contents 1. Global Overview 2. China Truck Demand and Production Outlook Short-term China Truck Demand Outlook Long-term China Truck Demand Outlook China Truck Production 3. China Truck Market Analysis Product Upgrading and Market Trend OEM Competition 4. Conclusion 28

29 29 Conclusion China will remain the biggest heavy truck market in the world. NS 5 emission standard implementation timeline will be the key factor impacting short-term truck demand. China truck demand is entering the micro-growth period signalled by China economic reform. Key short term challenge: Overcapacity; Key mid term challenge: Consolidation OEM competition becomes fiercer, and China truck product is being under product-upgrading process. The growth driver for future truck demand in China is tractor demand. 29

30 30 Thank you