The Slowdown and the Stimulus China Demand Outlook

Transcription

1 AUTOMOTIVE The Slowdown and the Stimulus China Demand Outlook 27 October 2016 Shanghai Lin Huaibin, Manager, China Light Vehicles Sales Forecast , 2016 IHS Markit. All 版权所有 Rights Reserved.

2 Chinese GDP growth Slowing down gradually over years, not collapsing overnight GDP development Percent change GDP Growth 2016: 6.6% 2017: 6.2% 2018: 6.4% Source: IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit 60

3 How much payback should we expect in 2017? <1.6L >1.6L

4 Millions Total industry volume 17.0 Vehicle Purchase Tax cut from 10% to 5% for vehicles (1.6L and below) in October 2015 December 2016 Improving GDP growth of 6.6% in GDP growth to trough out from 2018 with an average growth of 6.4% in Supported by replacement demand coming from scrappage of vehicles (Euro I and below) in Termination of tax incentives GDP growth rate of 6.2% in The government could usher in vehicle demand management because of rising energy security concerns % 12% 10% 8% 6% 10 4% 5 2% %

5 When will the JV share cap be lifted in the auto industry? Unit: 100 million USD FDI inflow FDI outflow Outflow as % of inflow CAGR:28% 1, , , , ,239 1,285 1,231 1,010 93% 1,457 1, % Sources: UNCTAD; ( ) refers to Outward Investment Ranking by Country. China excl. Hongkong and Taiwan

6 The day of JV share cap to be numbered

7 Body types diversity SUV sales keep expanding over proportionally in the long term 8% 65% 39% China North America Europe 8% 5% 18% 1% 12% % 3% 8% 44% 39% 3% 3% 7%4% 38% 45% 13% 9% 4% 11% 10% 13% 36% 15% 47% % SUV Hatchback Wagon Convertible Sedan MPV Coupe SUV Hatchback Coupe Convertible Sedan MPV Wagon Roadster SUV Sedan MPV Convertible Hatchback Wagon Coupe Roadster 65

8 IQS between domestic and international OEMs narrowed again in 2016 Unit: Problems per 100 Vehicles 900 GAP Chinese OEMs IQS International OEMs IQS Source: JD Power 66

9 Would the Chinese OEMs share continue to rise? Sales of JV cars based on old platform Chinese OEMs market share (as % of PV) Millions % 27.5% % % 25.2% 30.5% % % 31.6% 31.8% 32.0% 35% 30% 25% % % Citroen C-Elysee Hyundai Elantra VW Lavida Chevrolet Cruze Classic % 5% 0% 67

10 IHS definitions of China city tiers TIER-1 TIER-1.5 TIER-2 TIER-3 TIER-4 TIER-5 TIER-6 Major Cities Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen Tianjin, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Suzhou Changsha, Dongguan, Foshan, Qingdao Changzhou, Changchun, Harbin, Shijiazhuang Guiyang, Lanzhou, Luoyang, Handan Anqing, Changde, Datong, Guilin Aksu, Baiyin, Garzee, Puer Number of Cities (%) 4 Cities (1.2%) 7 Cities (2.1%) 11 Cities (3.2%) 37 Cities (10.8%) 30 Cities (8.8%) 87 Cities (25.5%) 165 Cities (48.4%) Location Core area of major economic zones Key cities in coastal or central China Important cities in coastal or central China Important cities in coastal or central China Most cities in Central and West China Most cities in West and Central China Most cities in West and Central China Total Population 70.7 million (6.5%) 98.8 million (9.0%) 72 million (6.6%) million (16.2%) 98.3 million (9.0%) million (25.5%) million (27.1%) GDP (%) 8,354 billion yuan (11.8%) 8,824 billion yuan (12.5%) 8,286 billion yuan (11.7%) 14,764 billion yuan (20.8%) 7,855 billion yuan (11.1%) 12,754 billion yuan (18.0%) 10,039 billion yuan (14.2%) GDP per Capita (average) 2015 PV SALES 125,000 renminbi 99,000 renminbi 90,000 renminbi 64,000 renminbi 45,000 renminbi 42,000 renminbi 28,000 renminbi 1.2 million (6.4%) 2.2 million (11.8%) 2.5 million (13.3%) 4.5 million (23.8%) 2.1 million (11.2%) 3.4 million (17.9%) 3.0 million (15.7%) 68

11 Economy vs. car sales: City tier development Tier 4 Tier 6 cities market shares increase with Tier 1 share declining GDP share by city tier PV market share by city tier T5 18% T5 18% T4 11% T4 11% T6 14% T6 14% T1 12% T1 12% T3 21% T3 21% T1.512% 12% T2 12% T1.5 T2 12% T5 18% T5 15% T4 10% T4 11% T6 16% T6 12% T3 24% T1 6% T1 13% T3 24% T1.5 12% T1.5 13% T2 13% 2010 T2 13%

12 Are Tier 4-6 cities the new El Dorado? Where are the +11k new dealers? Q vs 2013 T1 4% T1.5 8% City tier dealer share vs. city tier sales share 25% 2015 dealer share Y2015 sales share T6 22% T2 9% 20% 15% T4-T6:58% T5 24% T4 12% T3 21% 10% 5% 0% T1 T1.5 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 70

13 Dealer throughput : Profitability pressure not only for dealers but ultimately for OEMs/suppliers China dealer throughput by city tier 1,230 1, US dealer throughput T1 T1.5 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 National

14 New OEM entrances and brand expansion New entrants from other industries drive brand expansion Mega tech companies New OEMs Brand number Existing small OEMs Sharing economy Premium brands

15 Product nameplates for sales OEMs moving to emerging market quickly to gain customers Number of nameplates , United China Japan Germany France India Brazil Russia Source: IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit 73

16 Economics of pepper Heilongjiang GDP growth by province H1 2016(%) Chongqing Tianjin Anhui Fujian Jiangsu Xinjiang Ningxia Zhejiang Sichuan Shandong Guangxi Jilin Beijing Yunnan Liaoning

17 Car sales by provinces: Is pepper still hot? As % of national total 55% 45% 2016 YTD PV sales y/y (%) SHANXI NINGXIA HEBEI FUJIAN ZHEJIANG INNER MONGOLIA CHONGQING National JIANGSU YUNNAN BEIJING GUANGXI ANHUI TIBET GUANGDONG GUIZHOU 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 13% 13% 13% 13% 15% 16% 16% 17% 18% 23% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 75

18 NEV development in China EV demand is exploding in the near future; hybrid as main driver in the long term EV/hybrid PV production in China Millions Inception period 48V system will be the first priority option in the mild hybrid sector EV might NOT be market dominator despite strong stimulus policy today Development period Electric Plug-in hybrid Full hybrid Mild hybrid Source: IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit 76

19 Car sharing growing rapidly but business models challenged with lack of profitability In Chongqing from Apr 2016 with 400 cars With Drivers

20 Is car sharing becoming a real threat to vehicle demand?: What P2P tells us No. of models by body type Sedan MPV SUV No. of models by car age >=3 yrs <3 yrs 5% 11% 29% 71% 84% No. of models by brand positioning Mass Luxury 8% Total No of cars:+17k Cities Covered: 22 92% Source: AT Zuche,PP Zuche as of Sept 2016

21 Car sharing, or really?

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