Global Economic Indicators: Global Leading Indicators

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1 Global Economic Indicators: Global Leading Indicators November 27, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni Debbie Johnson Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents OECD Leading Indicators 1-7 BRICs Leading Indicators 8 OECD Leading Indicators 9 November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.

3 Figure 1. OECD: LEADING INDICATORS OECD Leading Indicators * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below and rising a recovery. Figure 2. OECD LEADING INDICATORS US (.7) Europe (.5) Japan (.1) * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below and rising a recovery. Source: OECD and Haver Analytics. Page 1 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.

4 Figure 3. OECD LEADING INDICATORS OECD Leading Indicators Europe (.5) Germany (.1) France (.5) Italy (.6) Spain (.9) United Kingdom (.5) * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below and rising a recovery. Source: OECD and Haver Analytics. 108 Figure 4. OECD LEADING INDICATORS 108 Europe (.5) Greece (.6) Portugal (.2) Ireland (.6) Belgium (.2) Netherlands (.3) * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below and rising a recovery. Source: OECD and Haver Analytics. Page 2 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.

5 Figure 5. OECD LEADING INDICATORS OECD Leading Indicators Australia (.8) Canada (.4) * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below Page 3 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.

6 OECD Leading Indicators Figure 6. OECD: LEADING INDICATORS JAPAN UNITED STATES GERMANY CANADA FRANCE UNITED KINGDOM ITALY * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below Page 4 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.

7 OECD Leading Indicators Figure 7. OECD: LEADING INDICATORS Australia CZECH REPUBLIC EUROPE DENMARK AUSTRIA FINLAND BELGIUM GREECE * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below Page 5 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.

8 OECD Leading Indicators 105 Figure 8. OECD: LEADING INDICATORS NEW ZEALAND Hungary IRELAND NORWAY MEXICO POLAND NETHERLANDS * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below Page 6 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.

9 Figure 9. OECD: LEADING INDICATORS OECD Leading Indicators SWEDEN Portugal SLOVAKIA SWITZERLAND SPAIN TURKEY * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion; above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below Page 7 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.

10 BRICs Leading Indicators 105 Figure 10. BRAZIL (amplitude adjusted, nsa*) INDIA CHINA RUSSIA * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion; above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below Page 8 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.

11 OECD Leading Indicators Figure 11. BRICs LEADING INDICATORS Brazil (.3) China (.7) India (.9) Russia (.8) * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below and rising a recovery. Source: OECD and Haver Analytics. Figure 12. OECD LEADING INDICATORS & JP MORGAN GLOBAL COMPOSITE OUTPUT PMI Leading Indicators (.2) JP Morgan Global Composite Output PMI (50+ = expansion, sa) (54.0) Oct * A reading above that is rising predicts expansion, above and falling a downturn, below and falling a slowdown, and below Source: JP Morgan, Markit, OECD, and Haver Analytics. Page 9 / November 27, 2017 / Global Leading Indicators www.

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