22 November 2016 OFFSHORE WIND EUROPE. Offshore wind smashes $100/MWh. Tom Harries

Transcription

1 22 November 2016 OFFSHORE WIND EUROPE Offshore wind smashes $100/MWh Tom Harries

2 A full version is available to BNEF subscribers. If you are not a BNEF subscriber but would like to know more about the presentation and our services then please contact Tom Harries tharries1@bloomberg.net Thank You 1

3 OFFSHORE WIND INSTALLATIONS COUNTRY RANKING, 2016 (MW) MW United Kingdom 5,106 5,281 10,387 Germany 3,280 3,271 6,552 China 1,163 1,672 2,835 Denmark 1,271 1,675 Netherlands Belgium Sweden , Japan Korea (Republic) Finland United States MW Other Ireland Taiwan Norway Region EMEA Status Commissioned France Portugal 2 2 APAC Finance secured / under construction AMER Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2

4 GLOBAL OFFSHORE-WIND INSTALLATIONS BY COUNTRY, (GW) Cumulative Other Belgium Netherlands Denmark China Germany United Kingdom Note: Post-2020, this forecast covers announced/planned projects as well as planned capacity additions as part of national schemes, such as annual capacity auctions. Other includes Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, US, Norway, Portugal and Sweden. Bloomberg New Energy Finance 3

5 THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF AUCTIONS EUROPEAN OFFSHORE WIND FORECAST, (GW) GW Commissioning date Note: Based on forecast from the H Offshore Wind Market Outlook Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 4

6 THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF AUCTIONS EUROPEAN OFFSHORE WIND FORECAST SPLIT BY AUCTION CAPACITY, (GW) GW From 2019, auctions will be responsible for % of annual installations Non-auctions Auctions Commissioning date Note: Based on forecast from the H Offshore Wind Market Outlook Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 5

7 HOW TO COMPARE APPLES WITH APPLES It is inaccurate to compare winning bids across different country policies Key factors to consider: Tariff duration (no. of years or full-load hours?) EUR 72.7/MWh DKK 770/MWh EUR 49.9/MWh DKK 0.475/kWh /MWh /MWh Tariff linked to inflation? (reducing/ flat tariff in real terms) Merchant tail (power price for years after tariff) Commissioning year (can impact starting price of tariff) To a lesser extent Project lifetime (no. of operational years) Currency (a single currency for comparison) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 6

8 IMPACT OF AUCTIONS ON OFFSHORE WIND COST OF ENERGY PROJECT LCOE BY COMMISSIONING YEAR, ($/MWH) A full version is available to BNEF subscribers. If you are not a BNEF subscriber but would like to know more about the presentation and our services then please contact Tom Harries tharries1@bloomberg.net Thank You 7

9 SOME OTHER REASONS FOR LOW PRICES

10 AVERAGE TURBINE SIZE FOR EUROPEAN PROJECTS BY EXPECTED COMMISSIONING DATE, (MW) Commissioned Financing secured / under construction Permitted Announced / planning begun Annual weighted average Note: X-axis denotes commissioning date, bubble size denotes project capacity. A project-weighted average was used for projects with multiple turbine models Bloomberg New Energy Finance 9

11 EUROPEAN OFFSHORE TURBINE MODEL MARKET SHARE BY INSTALLED CAPACITY, 2016 (MW) A full version is available to BNEF subscribers. If you are not a BNEF subscriber but would like to know more about the presentation and our services then please contact Tom Harries tharries1@bloomberg.net Thank You 10

12 EUROPEAN OFFSHORE TURBINE MODEL MARKET SHARE BY PIPELINE CAPACITY, 2016 (MW) A full version is available to BNEF subscribers. If you are not a BNEF subscriber but would like to know more about the presentation and our services then please contact Tom Harries tharries1@bloomberg.net Thank You 11

13 AUCTIONS ARE DRIVING DOWN CAPEX DISCLOSED EUROPEAN CAPEX VALUES, ($M/MW) A full version is available to BNEF subscribers. If you are not a BNEF subscriber but would like to know more about the presentation and our services then please contact Tom Harries tharries1@bloomberg.net Thank You 12

14 WHO IS SUBMITTING RECORD-LOW AUCTION PRICES? TOP 10 DEVELOPERS BY % EQUITY, 2016 (GW) Dong Experienced developers are winning the latest auctions Winners of last three offshore wind auctions: Near-shore auction: Vattenfall ($55/MWh) Borssele I & II: Dong Energy ($66/MWh) Horns Rev III: Vattenfall ($81/MWh) Vattenfall E.on Iberdrola RWE Northland Power Stadtwerke Muenchen Siemens SSE 0.49 Note: Data accurate as of 7 June 2016 Statoil Commissioned 0.48 Finance secured/ Under construction Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 13

15 WIND FARMS ARE GENERATING MORE MEGAWATT-HOURS FORECASTED AND HISTORICAL DENMARK AND UK CAPACITY FACTORS VS COMMISSIONING DATE A full version is available to BNEF subscribers. If you are not a BNEF subscriber but would like to know more about the presentation and our services then please contact Tom Harries tharries1@bloomberg.net Thank You 14

16 WE ARE INSTALLING WIND FARMS QUICKER INSTALLATION TIMES FOR NEAR SHORE PROJECTS VS PROJECT COMMISSIONING YEAR (DAYS/UNIT) A full version is available to BNEF subscribers. If you are not a BNEF subscriber but would like to know more about the presentation and our services then please contact Tom Harries tharries1@bloomberg.net Thank You 15

17 WHAT DOES A TYPICAL OFFSHORE WIND PROJECT LOOK LIKE? EUROPEAN PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS, 2016 A full version is available to BNEF subscribers. If you are not a BNEF subscriber but would like to know more about the presentation and our services then please contact Tom Harries tharries1@bloomberg.net Thank You 16

18 WHAT DOES A TYPICAL OFFSHORE WIND PROJECT LOOK LIKE? EUROPEAN PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS, 2016 A full version is available to BNEF subscribers. If you are not a BNEF subscriber but would like to know more about the presentation and our services then please contact Tom Harries tharries1@bloomberg.net Thank You 17

19 WHAT DOES A TYPICAL OFFSHORE WIND PROJECT LOOK LIKE? EUROPEAN PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS, 2016 Water depth (m) 240 How do we classify a typical offshore wind project? 180 Deeper 120 Near-shore & shallow waters vs. Deep 60 Far-shore & deep waters Shallow 0 0 Near 100 Far 200 Distance from substation to shore (km) vs. Floating Note: Floating projects capacities (in yellow) are exaggerated for visual purposes. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 18

20 COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment. 19

21 MARKETS Renewable Energy Energy Smart Technologies Advanced Transport Gas Carbon and RECs SERVICES Americas Service Asia Pacific Service EMEA Service Applied Research Events and Workshops Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers driving change in the energy system Tom Harries