Myth 1:Not a Superpower Yet

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2 Panel Sponsored by

3 US$ bn Myth 1:Not a Superpower Yet Exports plus imports, US$ bn 12,000 10,000 GDP at current prices External trade excluding intra-regional shipments (right scale) 2,500 2,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Not a superpower 1,500 1,000 2, US EU-15 Japan Asia-7 China Canada Mexico 0

4 Myth 1:Impressive, Not Unprecedented Share of world output (%) 12 China ( ) 10 8 Asia-7 ( ) Japan ( )

5 Myth 1:Impressive, Not Unprecedented Share of world trade (%) 9 China ( ) 8 Asia-7 ( ) 7 Japan ( )

6 Myth 2:China Growth Increasing Surplus Share of ASEAN GDP (%) 1.6 US$ bn ASEAN trade balance with China/HK (left) China net imports of primary resources (right) China's raw materials appetite is driving ASEAN's increasing bilateral surplus

7 Myth 2: China FDI Impressive, But Not Decreasing US$ Billion ASEAN NIEs / ASEAN China - likely "roundtripping" China - net

8 Myth 3:Deflation is Most Apparent in IT US$ price index, 2000= IT equipment Traditional manufacturing Other manufacturing

9 Myth 3:Deflation Not Just a Chinese Issue US$ price index, 2000= Taiwan exports Korea exports China exports

10 Myth 3:China Exports Are Not High Value Added Trade balance (exports less imports), US$ bn 100 Textiles/light consumer manufactures 80 Electronics Machinery, equipment, inputs 60 Primary/natural resource China is still not a net electronics exporter

11 Rise of Electronic Sector in China Value added, % of GDP Significant decline in light manufacturing, with a sharp increase in electronics production Traditional light manufacturing Electronics Other manufacturing Agriculture Services

12 China s Regions in Int l Trade Regional Comparison Exports Imports Region US$bn Percent US$bn Percent East % % Central % % West % %

13 China Regional Comparison Share of Output, Consumption & Population Region Land Per Capita Retail Population GDP Area GDP* Sales East 13.5% 41.6% 91.4% 12, % Central 59.6% 29.9% 5.4% 6, % West 56.9% 28.5% 3.2% 5, % *RMB bn

14 US$ Billions Foreign Capital Utilization Top 5 Cities 2 Beijing Shenghai Guangzhou Shenzhen Honzhou

15 China s International Transactions Exports and Imports as Percent of GDP Percent Exports Imports

16 Percent Int l Transactions in Hong Kong Exports and Imports as Percent of GDP Exports Imports

17 Percent Int l Transactions in Taiwan Exports and Imports as Percent of GDP Exports Imports

18 US$ GDP Per Capita China vs. Hong Kong China (Left) Hong Kong (Right) US$ Thousands

19 US$ China (Left) Taiwan (Right) GDP Per Capita China vs. Taiwan US$ Thousands

20 Government Expenditures Per Capita China US$ Per Capita - L As Percent of GDP - R Percent

21 Government Expenditures Per Capita Taiwan US$ 3000 Per Capita - L As Percent of GDP - R Percent

22 Government Expenditures Per Capita Hong Kong US$ Per Capita - L As Percent of GDP - R Percent

23 Average Annual Wage & Exports China US$ Index 1991= Wage - L Export Growth - R

24 Shanghai Services Employment By Sector, 2002 Finance & Insurance, 25% Other Services, 40% Telecomm & Transp., 13% Retail / Wholesale Trade & Restaurants, 21%

25 China Industrial Production Real Growth Rate Percent Change, Year Ago

26 Percent China Industrial Production Value Added of Industry Industrial Output - L Services Output - R Percent

27 China Principal Imports 2001 Steel & products 4% Primary plastics 5% Others 33% Crude oil 5% Machinery & transport equipment 46% Electronic & electronic products 7%

28 China Principal Exports 2001 Computer & telecom products 14% Textile yarn & fabrics 6% Garments & clothing 14% Others 11% Machinery & transport equipment 36% Electric & electronic products 19%

29 China: A Producer s Haven US$ Billions FDI Inflows Outward Profit Repatriation

30 China s Rural Migrant Workers In Millions Region Across-country Across-province Total

31 Asian Economies Real GDP Growth Rates* Percent China North Asia Taiwan ASEAN 5 Hong Kong *Note: 2002 Estimated

32 Per Capita Income ,900 RMB and Above 7,900 RMB 12,900 RMB 5,900 RMB 7,900 RMB 5,300 RMB 5,900 RMB 5,300 RMB and Below

33 International Trade Imports & Exports, 2001 US$ 29 Billion and Above US$ 29 Bil. US$ 357 Mil. US$ 357 Mil. US$206 Mil. US$ 206 Mil. US$177 Mil. US$ 177 Mil. and Below

34 Establishment Employment Million and Above 3.72 Million Million 2.90 Million 3.72 Million 2.01 Million 2.90 Million 2.01 Million and Below

35 China Foreign Debt Per Capita US$

36 China Budget Balance* As Percent of GDP Percent *Note: 2002 Estimated

37 Building the Export Machine FDI as share of GDP, % China total China net NIEs / ASEAN

38 Will China Over-take ASEAN in Int l Trade? Share of world trade (%) China 10 NIEs / ASEAN Asian Malaise... 9 Japan and Chinese Dynamism

39 Edging Out its Competitors in Trade Growth rate of US dollar trade value (%) 40 China NIEs / ASEAN 30 Japan 20 Global IT downturn Asian crisis

40 US$ Billions 50 China s Export Machines Top 5 Cities Shenzhen Shenghai Suzhou Beijing Guangzhou

41 Value-added by Ownership 2000 State-owned, foreign and government 50% Domestic nonstate 50%

42 Financial System Loan Assets by Ownership, 2000 State-owned, foreign and government 89% Domestic nonstate 11%

43 Tough Balancing Act Growth rate (% yoy) 40 Nominal GDP (left scale) 35 M1 (lagged, right scale) M2 (lagged, right scale) Growth rate (% yoy)

44 1,400 1,200 1,000 Economic Expansion in the 90 s GDP, Trade and Income growth Total trade (US$ bn) GDP (US$ bn) Per-capita GDP (US$)

45 Share (%) 8 China: The World s Factory? 7 6 Share of world GDP Share of world trade 5 4 Initial opening Trade-led growth

46 US$ bn The Chinese IT Dream Electronics Textiles/light consumer manufactures Electronics is now the fastest-growing export category in China Machinery, equipment, inputs 200 Primary/natural resources

47 Hong Kong The Frontier Economy As Percent of GDP Sector Import/Export 11% 15% 20% Finance & Insurance 7% 7% 13% Transport 6% 7% 8% Manufacturing 24% 17% 6% Business Services 2% 4% 5% Retail & Wholesale 7% 5% 4% Communications 1% 2% 2%

48 Hong Kong Trade Balance In HK$ Bil Sector Q1 Q2 Q3 Goods Services Goods & Services

49 Hong Kong Goods Exports Percent Share of Total Exports by Global Market Region Mainland China 6% 25% 39% United States 26% 24% 21% Asia (excl. China) 23% 22% 18% European Union 25% 19% 13%

50 H.K. Export Structural Shift Domestic Exports vs. Re-Exports by Percentage Share Domestic Exports 69% 35% 8% Re-Exports 31% 65% 92% Total Exports 100% 100% 100%

51 H.K. Export Structural Shift Re-Exports to Offshore Trade (Year Over Year Change) Mainland China: Goods Exports 18% 23% 28% Hong Kong: Re-Exports 20% 17% 18% Offshore Trade: Sales of Goods NA NA 54%

52 A Rising Star in the Global Economy What s Hot: If you can image it, China can build it If you don t want it, China can make a buck out of it

53 If You Can Image it, China Can Build it 60% of USA imports last year sourced from China, including Hong Kong, if adding Taiwan, this will go up to as high as 65%,

54 If You Don t Want it, China Can Make a Buck Out of it 35% of USA s exports go to China, so what s being shipped out?

55 Exports From USA Into China Top 5 GROWING COMMODITIES Commodity % of Total Exports 1) Waste Paper 25.9% 2) Metal Scrap 9.8% 3) Resin 8.7% 4) Plastic Scrap 4.9% 5) Logs & Lumber 3.9% Commodities of Potential Machinery, Auto & Building Materials

56 Exports From USA Into China Top 5 DIMINISHING COMMODITIES Commodity % of Total Exports 1) Frozen Poultry 3.5% 2) Kraft Liner Board 3.0% 3) Foodstuff 0.5% 4) Shellfish 0.3% 5) Lettuce 0.1%

57 Hot Shots 1 Single Euro Land Bridge 2 Go West 3 Link 4 PL 5 fix s 6 vital links 7 % GDP 8 yes, 2008 Olympics

58 A Rising Star in the Global Economy What s Not Everything is possible, nothing is easy

59 Everything is Possible, Nothing is Easy Transition to market economy, Logistic overrun, Aging infra-structure, Central, provincial and local government agencies legistration, Financial practices, Licensing

60 China Export Partners 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% USA Japan Germany % of US$ Bn Source: CIA

61 China Import Partners 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Japan Taiwan USA S. Korea Germany HKG % of US$ 268.6Bn Source: CIA

62 Outbound International Travel Passengers Carried 40,000 (000's) 30,000 20,000 10,000 China Taiwan SIN HKG IATA forecast

63 China - Annual Visitor Arrivals 10,000 Unit: 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Foreigners HK & Macao Taiwan Source: CNTA

64 Foreign Tourists Visiting China In 10,000 1, , Tourists Handled by Travel Service Source china.org.cn

65 CHINA - TOP 15: COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN IN 2002 Visitors ('000) Percentage Total Growth (%) 1 Japan Korea Russia USA Malaysia Philippines Singpore Mongolia Thailand UK Canada Australia Germany Indonesia France Source: China National Tourism Association (CNTA)

66 CHINA - International Tourists by locality, 2002 Others 23.6% Beijing 7.7% Shanghai 6.7% Jiangsu 5.5% Zhejiang 5.0% Yunnan 3.2% Guangxi 3.4% Fujian 4.6% Hubei 2.5% Guangdong 37.7% Source: China National Tourism Association (CNTA)

67 Cargo Traffic at Asia s Top Airports First 10 months of 2002 World Total Cargo % Change Ranking Airport In Tonnes Over Hong Kong 2,043, % 4 Tokyo Haneda 1,621, % 6 Seoul 1,426, % 7 Singapore 1,374, % 13 Taipei 1,134, % 17 Bangkok 790, % 20 Osaka 664, % 23 Tokyo Narita 570, % 25 Beijing 555, % 28 Guangzhou 493, % 29 Shanghai Pudong 458, % Source: Airports Council International

68 Cargo Traffic at China s Top Airports First 6 months of 2002 World Total Cargo % Change Ranking Airport In Tonnes Over Hong Kong 1,664, % 26 Beijing 291, % 28 Guangzhou 284, % 30 Shanghai Hongqiao 259, % 56 Shanghai Pudong 222, % 62 Shenzen 126, % 77 Chengdu 94, % 113 Xiamen 50, % 116 Macau 49, % 157 Nanjing 24, % Source: Airports Council International

69 Inbound Air Freight Metric Tonnes (000's) 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , China Taiwan SIN HKG IATA forecast

70 Outbound Air Freight Metric Tonnes (000's) 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , SIN Taiwan China HKG IATA forecast

71 Hong Kong Trade ,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 - Domestic Exports Re-exports Total Exports Imports HK$ Millions HK Govt Data

72 Hong Kong Total Trade HK$ millions 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 - China Japan Singapore HK Govt Data

73 Hong Kong Trade Domestic Exports to Destinations HK$ Millions 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, USA China UK Taiwan Germany HK Govt Data

74 Hong Kong Trade Imports by Origin HK$ Millions 800, , , , China Japan Taiwan USA R. Korea HK Govt Data

75 Hong Kong Trade Re-exports By Destination HK$ millions 600, , , , , ,000 - China USA Japan UK Germany HK Govt Data

76 Hong Kong Trade Re-exports by Origin HK$ millions 1,000, , , , ,000 - China Japan Taiwan USA R. Korea HK Govt Data

77 Hong Kong Trade by Mode of Transport Domestic Exports HK$ Millions 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Ocean Land Air River HK Govt Data

78 Hong Kong Trade by mode of Transport Re-exports HK$ millions 800, , , , Ocean Land Air River HK Govt Data

79 Hong Kong Trade by mode of Transport Imports HK$ millions 600, , , , , ,000 - Ocean Land Air River HK Govt Data

80 Pearl River Delta Guangdong Province Hong Kong Population 30M 40M 7M Pearl River Delta

81 Hong Kong and The Pearl River Delta Over 80% of HKG air cargo originates from or destined for China, particularly to the Pearl River Delta area About 40% of China export by value via HKG Pearl River Delta: Area - 42,000 sq. km Population - 40M GDP RMB billion (90 USD billion) Hong Kong: Population - 7m

82 GATEWAY TO CHINA HKG continues to handle about 40% of all exports to Mainland China, and accounts for about half of foreign direct investment there. Every day there are about 800 sailings, 140 flights, 35 train connections and 27,000 vehicle crossings between HKG and Mainland China. About 50,000 HKG companies have production facilities in southern China, employing some 5M workers. Approximately 190,000 HKG expatriates work on the mainland, mainly in managerial and professional positions. Source:

83 HONG KONG - PREMIER HUB WITH GLOBAL REACH Reach all geographical markets & half the world s population within 5 hour s flying time Bangkok Beijing Jakarta Kuala Lumpur Manila Seoul Shanghai Singapore Taipei Tokyo and many others

84 HONG KONG - WORLD S 3RD BUSIEST AIRPORT 34.32M int l passengers in 2002 (+3.8% vs 2001) Served by 62 airlines Offers connection to 112 destinations WORLD S BUSIEST INT L CARGO HUB 2.48M tonnes of air cargo in 2002 (+19.6% vs 2001)

85 HONG KONG - REGIONAL HQ CAPITAL IN THE ASIA PACIFIC A total of 3119 overseas companies had regional operations in HKG as at 1 June This figure comprised 948 regional headquarters and 2171 regional offices. Source: Census & Statistics Department, HKSAR Number of members American Chamber of Commerce 2,300 Australian Chamber of Commerce 1,000 British Chamber 850 Canadian Chamber 700 Japanese Chamber 660 French Chamber 450 German Business Association 400 Dutch Business Association 350 Swiss Business Council 140 Italian Chamber 130 Source: Invest HK

86 GATEWAY TO CHINA Overseas Visitors going via HKG to Mainland 2001 ( 000) Dep for Gth % Share to total Mainland HKG arrivals Americas 447-2% 36% Europe, Africa/ME 330-3% 23% SW Pacific 115 1% 30% N. Asia % 30% S., SE Asia % 34% Sub Total 1,982^ 5% 30% Taiwan 1,145 5% 48% Grand Total 3,172 6% 34%* ^ 18% of China inbound (excl HKG/Macao/TWN) go via HKG * 34% of total overseas visitor arrivals in HKG go to Mainland

87 GATEWAY TO CHINA Overseas Visitors going via HKG to Mainland 2001 ( 000) Ttl Gth Air Sea Land Americas 447-2% Europe, Africa/ME 330-3% Australasia 115 1% N. Asia % S. & SE Asia % Sub Total 1,982^ 5% ,400 Taiwan 1,145 5% ,010 Grand Total 3,172* 6% ,447 ^ 18% of China inbound (excl HKG/Macao/TWN) go via HKG * 34% of total overseas visitor arrivals in HKG go to Mainland

88 Milken Institute Global Conference 1 April 2003 Tom Wright Senior Vice President Americas Cathay Pacific Airways 88