Comparison of urban energy use and carbon emission in Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul and Shanghai

Transcription

1 International Workshop on Urban Energy and Carbon Modeling, February 5-6, 28, AIT Centre, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani, Thailand Comparison of urban energy use and carbon emission in Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul and Shanghai Shinji Kaneko, Hiroshima University Shobhakar Dhakal,, Global Carbon Project

2 Goals through comparative study To understand dynamic relationships among urbanization, economic development, industrial structure changes, total direct CO2 emissions and indirect CO2 emissions. To distinguish unintentional factors such as income effects, economic structure effects accompanied by urban development process from the intentional factors which try to utilize the advantages of cities (concentration, economy of scale, economy of agglomeration).

3 Contents Urbanization and direct per capita CO2 emission Cities and CO2 emissions Economic development, urbanization and per capita CO2 emission Urban development process and energy, CO2 in Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul and Shanghai Flying geese pattern of development Economic structure and external dependency Energy structure Embodied CO2 emissions Carbon budget analysis (Tokyo, Beijing, Shanghai) Regional comparisons in Japan Future works

4 Gap of per capita CO2 between city and country Gap of per capita CO2 between city and country Tokyo Seoul Beijing and Shanghai Per capita CO2 emission (t-co2/person) Per capita CO2 emission (t-co2/person) Per capita CO2 emission (t-co2/person) Tokyo Japan(CDIAC) Japan Seoul Korea Beijing Shanghai China(CDIAC) China

5 City and CO2 emission Urbanizing world World: 32.75% (196) => 48.77% (25) => 6% (23) Developing East Asia and the Pacific: 16.76% (196) => 41.45% (25) If per capita CO2 emission in cities is twice larger than that in national average, then cities contributes 66% of CO2 emissions under current level of urbanization. Better understanding of the gap in per capita CO2 between city and national would be good start to have overall contribution of cities to global carbon emissions. Urban contribution to total CO2 emissions 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Beijing Shanghai Tokyo Seoul Gap of per capita CO2 between urban and national Urbanization196 (32.75%) Urbanization25 (48.77%) Urbanization23 (59.92%)

6 Urbanization, GDP and per capita CO2 emission Dependent Variable: CO2 emission (metric tons per capita) Independent Variable: Urban population (% of total) Manufacture, value added (% of GDP) GDP per capita (constant US$) Period: Countries: 163 countries Observations: 3,396 Data Sources: World Development Indicator 27 Model: Random Effect Tobit Regression model

7 Urbanization, GDP and per capita CO2 emission By eliminating lower income countries and refining the sample with higher income countries, elasticity of urbanization to per capita CO2 emission changes. In the range of per capita GDP between 21, and 22,, the elasticity turns to be negative. Urbanization, Elasticities Lowe limit of GDP per capita (constant international $) Urbanization, Parameters elasticities Number of observations

8 GRDP 24 billion $, PPP billion $, exchange Tokyo Seoul Beijing Shanghai Total 1,36 1,148 GDP Brazil (9, 1) 1, Italy (8, 7) 1,488 1,133 France (7, 6) 1,626 1,413 Beijing Seoul Shanghai Tokyo

9 Urban development pattern of East Asian mega-cities (Passenger vehicle ownership) million unit Tokyo Olympic (1964) Seoul Olympic (1988) Beijing Olympic (28) person per unit 1,, Shanghai Expo (21) 1, 1, 2. 1, person per unit(tokyo2) person per unit(beijing) Tokyo(2) Beijing person per unit(seoul) person per unit(shanghai) Seoul Shanghai

10 199 Final Energy Consumption Tokyo Coal products Seoul Petroleum products Electricity Gas and others 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Beijing Shanghai ,6 1,4 1,2 1, Coal products Petroleum products Electricity Gas and Others Coal products Petroleum products Electricity Gas and Others 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Final Energy Consumption (PJ) Final Energy Consumption (PJ) Final Energy Consumption (PJ) 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Coal products Petroleum products Electricity Gas and Others Final Energy Consumption (PJ) Coal products Petroleum products Electricity Gas and Others

11 Phase of economic development and industrial transformation GDP/GRP Growth Industrial Structure Change 16.% 9% 14.% 8% 12.% 7% Economic growth rate (%) 1.% 8.% 6.% Industrial Share (%) 6% 5% 4% 3% 4.% 2% 2.% 1%.% -2.% % China growht ratio Beijing Growth ratio Shanghai Growth Japan growth ratio Tokyo growth ratio Beijing_Industry Beijing_Service Shanghai_Industry Shanghai_Service Tokyo_Industry Tokyo_Service

12 Consumption vs Investment.6 Share of Gross Fixed Capital Formation Share of Private Final Consumption China Japan Beijing Shanghai Tokyo Korea China Japan Beijing Shanghai Tokyo Korea

13 Economic external dependency Economic external dependency Import/Domestic Demand Export/Total Production 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % China Japan Beijing Tokyo Shanghai China Japan Beijing Tokyo Shanghai

14 CO2 emission (million t-co CO2 emission (million t-co2) CO2 emissions from Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul and Shanghai Tokyo Seoul Beijing and Shanghai Tokyo Seoul Shanghai Beijing CO2 emission (million t-co2)

15 Methodology: carbon footprint analysis with regional input- output energy model World Country City Embodied energy in import for capital formation Embodied energy in import of intermediate products Production Capital Stock Embodied energy in Export Import Export Embodied energy in import for final consumption Consumers Energy supply from the earth Imported products Local products Embodied energy and embodied CO2 emissions Indirect energy and CO2 emissions Industry 3 Industry n-2 Industry 2 Industry n-1 Industry 1 Industry n n i= 1 ε X i ij Industry j n i= 1 ε X j ji E j n jqj ε jx ji i= 1 ε

16 CO 2 Balance, million t-cot 2 (1) 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Embodied CO2 in export Embodied CO2 in capital formation Embodied CO2 in final consumption Embodied CO2 in imported products Embodied CO2 in imported products Japan Carbon footprint 1.63 (1985) 1.6 (199) 1.51 (1995) 5 CO2 in energy supply 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 Japan inflow Japan inflow (1985) (199) Japan inflow (1995) Japan (1985) Japan (199) Japan (1995) Embodied CO2 in export Embodied CO2 in capital formation Embodied CO2 in final consumption China Carbon footprint 1.9 () 1.23 (1997) 2, Embodied CO2 in imported products 1,5 1, Embodied CO2 in imported products 5 CO2 in energy supply China inflow China inflow () (1997) China () China (1997)

17 CO 2 Balance, million t-cot 2 (2) Embodied CO2 in export Embodied CO2 in capital formation Embodied CO2 in final consumption Embodied CO2 in imported products Embodied CO2 in imported products Tokyo Carbon footprint 5.81 (1985) 6.55 (199) 4.44 (1995) CO2 in energy supply Tokyo inflow (1985) Tokyo inflow (199) Tokyo inflow (1995) Tokyo (1985) Tokyo (199) Tokyo (1995) Embodied CO2 in export Embodied CO2 in capital formation Embodied CO2 in final consumption Embodied CO2 in imported products Beijing Carbon footprint 1.95 () 1.99 (1997) Embodied CO2 in imported products 5 CO2 in energy supply Beijing Beijing inflow () inflow (1997) Beijing () Beijing (1997)

18 CO 2 Balance, million t-cot 2 (3) Embodied CO2 in export Embodied CO2 in capital formation Embodied CO2 in final consumption Embodied CO2 in imported products Embodied CO2 in imported products Fukuoka Carbon footprint 3.65 (1985) 3.16 (199) 3.21 (1995) 5 CO2 in energy supply Fukuoka inflow (1985) Fukuoka Fukuoka inflow (199) inflow (1995) Fukuoka (1985) Fukuoka (199) Fukuoka (1995) Embodied CO2 in export Embodied CO2 in capital formation Embodied CO2 in final consumption Embodied CO2 in imported products Embodied CO2 in imported products Kitakyushu Carbon footprint 1.43 (1985) 1.71 (199) 1.71 (1995) 5 CO2 in energy supply Kitakyushu inflow (1985) Kitakyushu Kitakyushu inflow (199) inflow (1995) Kitakyushu (1985) Kitakyushu (199) Kitakyushu (1995)

19 CO 2 emission () (million t-co2) n.a. Direct CO 2 emission Indirect CO 2 emission

20 CO 2 emission per capita () (t-co2/capita) n.a. Direct CO 2 emission per capita Indirect CO 2 emission per capita

21 Comparison of annual growth rate from 199 to (%) n.a. Direct CO 2 emission Indirect CO 2 emission

22 Net virtual inflow of carbon Indirect - Export CO 2 emission () (million t-co2)

23 Indirect and Export CO 2 Emission per Direct CO2 () n.a. Indirect / Direct CO 2 Emission Export / Direct CO 2 Emission

24 (Direct + Indirect) CO 2 emission per capita () (t-co2/capita) n.a.

25 (Direct + Indirect - Export) CO 2 emission () (million t-co2) n.a.

26 Concluding remarks Gap of per capita CO2 between city and national average vary from city to city, to have better understanding some distribution pattern tern of the gaps across different scale and income level of cities would help to understand overall urban contribution to global carbon emissions. With higher income group, urbanization would positively contribute te to improve per capita CO2 emission at the country, while urbanization in middle income countries would negatively contribute. Industrial structure and its changes are one of the dominant factors to determine the level and changes of both total CO2 emissions of o cities, directly and indirectly. In order to evaluate the real performance of cities climate mitigation policies, we need study more on the contributions of unintentional factors.