The Scale of Urban. Change Worldwide Shobhakar Dhakal Global Carbon Project (

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1 International Workshop on Urbanization, Development Pathways and Carbon Implications March 2007, Tsukuba, Japan 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000, % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Rural Population Urban Population ,000,000 Rural Population The Scale of Urban 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, ,000,000 4,500, Urban Population OCEANIA Change Worldwide an Population Urba 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 NORTHERN AMERICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EUROPE ASIA Shobhakar Dhakal Global Carbon Project ( David Satterthwaite International Institute for Environment and Development ( 1,000, , % 90.00% 80.00% NORTHERN AMERICA AFRICA OCEANIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN % EUROPE Urban Population 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% ASIA AFRICA

2 World urbanization at nutshell World urban population: 3.2 billion (49% of world population of 6.5 billion in 2005, will be 50% by 2008) Asia hosts largest world urban population (Asia 1.6 billion, Europe 0.5, Africa 0.3, North America 0.3, Latin America, Caribbean and Oceania in 2005) China, India, USA have largest urban population in 2005 as countries Urban population will grow twice as faster as compared to total population growth (1.78% vs. 0.95%- annual rate for projected) resulting 4.9 billion (about 60% of total population) by 2030 (out of 8.2 billion) 1.8 billion urban population will be added in out of which 1.1 billion will be added in Asia Cities and Asia: 11 out of 20 mega-cities (over 10 million), 17 out of 30 cities of 5-10 million, 184 out of 364 cities of 1-5 million, 225 out of 455 cities of million Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/200.

3 Regional distribution of world s urban population Regional share of world urban population 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 4.5% 7.0% 11.0% 15.1% 32.0% 37.9% 49.3% 53.7% 37.8% 29.2% 16.7% 11.1% 9.6% % 13.0% 12.4% AFRICA ASIA EUROPE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 15.0% 11.9% 8.5% 7.1% NORTHERN AMERICA 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% OCEANIA Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision.

4 Percentage of population residing in urban areas within regions, 1950, 1975, 2005 and 2030 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/200.

5 World urbanization at nutshell Historically urbanization speed has been accelerated Size of urban population has been unprecedented World urban population Time taken Years 0 1 billion 10,000 years? 8000 BC billion 25 years billion 17 years billion 15 years billion 3.1 billion Urban and rural population to be equal in % (urban pop) 50% Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision.

6 Number of Million-cities by region over time London and Peking Africa Asia Europe Latin America/Caribbean Source: David Satterthwaite (1996), The scale and nature of urban change in the south, IIED Working Paper, IIED, London North America Oceania 6 2

7 Cities by size, now and future 8000 World No of agglomeration % of urban population in in Urban > 10M Urban 5M to 10M Urban 1M to 5M Urban 0.5M to 1M Urban < 0.5M Rural % 6.5% 22.6% 10.1% 9.4% 7.1% 23.8% 9.1% Population (million n) % 50.5% Mega-cities are few and collectively makes small share Urban settlements with less than half-million make over half of urban population Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/200.

8 Aggregated statistics suggest rapid urbanization but.. Large proportions of world s urban centers are not growing rapidly A significant proportion are actually losing population Statistics hide people living in poor condition in mega-cities However, despite appearing chaotic, provision for basic services are well-above their national averages in large cities

9 World s ten fastest growing cities By annual average population increment ( ) Tokyo (464,000), Mexico City (304,000), Sao Paulo (296,000), Mumbai (262,000), Delhi (221,000), Dhaka (195,000), Jakarta (191,000), Karachi (180,000), Seoul (178,000), Kolkata (172,000) By annual average growth rate ( ) Karaj/Iran (10.5%), Brasilia (9.1%), Abidjan (8.2%), Lusaka/Zambia (8.1%), Faridabad (8%), Dubai (7.9%), Kaduna/Nigeria (7.8%), Riyad (7.7%), Las Vegas(7.6%), Dammam/Saudi Arabia (7.4%)

10 World s ten slowest growing cities ( ) By annual average growth rate Liverpool, Leeds, Copenhagen, London, Manchester, Genoa (reducing population) Berlin, Birmingham, Xiaoshan, Xintai, Buffalo, Newcastle, Budapest Slowest glowing cities are mostly in Europe, many in China and some in USA

11 We overestimated in the past!! Less urbanized and less dominant by large cities than predicted Mexico City:18 million in 2000 as opposed to 31 million predicted by UN in 1975 Calcutta: 13 million in 2000 as opposed to million predicted by Lester Brown in 1974 Mega-cities: 18 in 2000 as opposed to 27 predicted by UN in 1975 Several million fewer than predicted for Sao Paulo, Rio, Seoul, Chennei and Cairo

12 Often cross-city comparisons are confusing and misleading What is city population? City boundaries are not set by universal criteria Can go + few millions depending on boundaries Most large cities has at least three definitions (core city, metropolitan city, development planning zone) What is level of urbanization? Definition of urban is locally determined which varies widely from country to country Is it census data? Bottom-line: Urbanization data is not a precise figure

13 What is city population? Population Area(km2) Explanation Beijing (1990) 2,336, Four inner-city district including old city 5,400, Core city 6,325,722 1,369 Inner city + inner suburban districts 10,819,407 16,808 Including outer districts + 8 counties Tokyo (1990) 8,164, Tokyo 23-wards 11,856,000 2,162 Tokyo prefecture (Tokyo-to) 31,559,000 13,508 Greater Tokyo Metropolitan Area 39,158,000 36,834 National Capital Region Los Angeles (1990) 3,000, LA City 8,700,000 10,635 LA counties 8,863,000 6,526 LA-Long Beach Primary metropolitan statistical area 14,532,000 88,000 LA consolidated metropolitan statistical area

14 Often cross-city comparisons are confusing and misleading What is city population? City boundaries are not set by universal criteria but local Can go + few millions depending on boundaries Most large cities has at least three definitions (core city, metropolitan city, development planning zone) What is level of urbanization? Definition of urban is locally determined which varies widely from country to country Is it census data? Bottom-line: Urbanization data is not a precise figure

15 Incomparable definitions of urban determines global urbanization numbers Who defines urban? Mexico can be 74.4% urban (in 2000) or 67.3% urban depending on definition of urban center as settlements with 2,500 or 15,000 people India classifies 500-5,000 inhabitant settlements as rural villages if India changes definition, it will be predominantly urban population 17.5% of Egypt's population lived in settlements with 10,000 to 20,000 inhabitants which were not classified as urban (1996) In Sweden, urban (tätort) refers to settlements of more than 200 inhabitants with continuous built-up area that houses are not more than 200 meters apart when discounting rivers, parks, roads, etc What would be world s urban population data if we apply Swedish definition to India and China? Lower ends of urban definition swings urbanization levels drastically

16 Often cross-city comparisons are confusing and misleading What is city population? City boundaries are not set by universal criteria but local Can go + few millions depending on boundaries Most large cities has at least three definitions (core city, metropolitan city, development planning zone) What is level of urbanization? Definition of urban is locally determined which varies widely from country to country Is it census data? Bottom-line: Urbanization data is not a precise figure

17 Beyond boundary issue- accurate accounting Census data - best case:10 years, worst case: years (Sub-Saharan Africa) Projected data from 1970 for 1990 and 2000 are not reliable Often it is said that sub-saharan Africa surprisingly Often it is said that sub-saharan Africa surprisingly urbanized without economic growth (World Bank in 1990) but those were projected data from 1970

18 Often cross-city comparisons are confusing and misleading What is city population? City boundaries are not set by universal criteria but local Can go + few millions depending on boundaries Most large cities has at least three definitions (core city, metropolitan city, development planning zone) What is level of urbanization? Definition of urban is locally determined which varies widely from country to country Is it census data? Bottom-line: Urbanization data is not a precise figure, we should be aware of these limitations when we use it

19 What these aggregated statistics don't tell? Behind the story of urban change Immediate cause- movement of people from rural to urban area Underlying case concentration of new investment and economic opportunities in urban centers Key factors Economic, social, political and demographic changes underpinning urbanization Particular local and national influencing factors

20 Middle and low-income nations The scale and direction of people s movement consistent with spatial location of economic opportunity defined by concentration of profit-seeking enterprises and people working outside agriculture for living - Large importance of industry and service sector Expanding economy attract more migrants In many nations rural-rural migration is on larger scale than rural-urban migration Urban centers concentrate public service provision (education, hospitals, government offices and functionaries)

21 Drivers for urban change State of national economy Scale of economy Local factors Decisions of national governments Structure of government (division of power and resources between different levels of government) Extent and spatial distribution of transport and communication investments Local investors Location, natural resources endowment, demographic structure State of infrastructure Quality and capacity of public institutions External factors Connectedness of nation's economy with neighboring nations and global economy 30,000 or so global corporations who control significant share of world economy

22 Local factors are key to size and spatial distribution of urban population Case of Pakistan: Political factors Partition from India (1.8 million added mostly to Sindh and Punjab, especially Hyderabad and Karachi; drop in NWFP by 1951), Bangladesh partition, Afgan civil war (3.7 million moved to Pakistan, Peshawar, Quetta), political structure Case of Mexico: economic changes Up to 1940: Agro-exporting period (Cities grew as place for market and service centers for agriculture) : Import substitution period (Mexico City expanded) : Slowing economic growth led to export-oriented industry (deceleration of Mexico and growth of US-border cities as export processing zones and port cities) In 2000, Mexico grew half of what was expected 20 years back Strong impact of migration slowed economy

23 Local factors are key to size and spatial distribution of urban population Case of South Africa: Racial discrimination Strict control over rights of black majority to live and move to urban centers limited scale of urban growth (displaced within 60 km of large cities) Urban center are also shaped by development of gold and diamond mines Influence of immigration flows and decline in white population since 1991

24 Urbanization level and economic change In general, nations with higher income are also nations with higher level of urbanization however Amongst the nations of same income there is a great diversity in urbanization level Thailand 20% and Columbia 75% in 2001 (about 6,000 US$, PPP) Amongst the nations of same urbanization rates, there are a great diversity in income levels Such as Columbia and USA in 2001 (close to 77%) where per capita income (PPP) of USA was about 7 times more World Bank data and UN Pop statistics

25 Final words The speed and size of urbanization has been unprecedented for last 100 years and more specifically in period However, the world is less urbanized and less dominated by large cities than predicted few decades back Asia will continue to play center-stage in this saga Rapid urban change is generally thought to be taking place at low- and middle- economies but are not only confined there - North America has some of fastest growing cities, some of key European cities are declining Urban data are a good reference but one should be aware of its limitations, especially in cross-comparisons Economic, social, political and demographic changes underpin urban change - particular local and national factors influences

26 Urban and Rural Population 100% 80% 60% 40% Rural Populat ion Urban 20% Populat ion 0% 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, Rural Population Urban Population Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision.

27 Urban population by region 5,000,000 4,500,000 OCEANIA 4,000,000 Urban Population 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 NORTHERN AMERICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EUROPE 1,500,000 1,000, , ASIA AFRICA Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/200.

28 Regional share in world urban population % 90.00% 80.00% OCEANIA NORTHERN AMERICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 70.00% EUROPE Urban Population 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% ASIA 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% AFRICA Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/