Current situation and prospects for copper, nickel, lead and zinc

Transcription

1 Global Commodities Forum Palais des Nations, Geneva March 2010 Current situation and prospects for copper, nickel, lead and zinc by Mr. Don Smale, Secretary General, International Lead and Zinc Study Group International Nickel Study Group International Copper Study Group "The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNCTAD"

2 Current Situation & Prospects for Copper, Nickel, Lead and Zinc Don Smale Secretary-General International Lead and Zinc Study Group International Nickel Study Group International Copper Study Group UNCTAD Global Commodities Forum March 2010, Geneva 1

3 Presentation Outline Global Trends and Outlook Copper Nickel Lead and Zinc Challenges and Emerging Issues 2

4 The Study Groups Three independent intergovernmental organisations set up initially within the UN system: International Copper Study Group (1992) 22 members International ti Nickel Study Group (1990) 16 members International Lead and Zinc Study Group (1959) 30 members 3

5 Metals Markets Key Issues Prices collapsed in 2008 but recovered in 2009 Nickel from $52,000/tonne in May 2007 to below 10,000 US$/tonne in December 2008, Copper fell from near $9,000/tonne to $2,770 in Dec Currently (March 2010) prices for nickel are ~$22,000/t and for copper ~$7,400/t Uncertainty in the market which remains volatile China will remain the most important market 4

6 10,000 Copper Mine Production by Region (thousand metric tonnes) tric Tonne s Copper Tho ousand Me ,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, p Africa America Asia Europe Oceania 5

7 Copper Mine Capacity by Region, 1980 and 2009 (thousand metric tonnes) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3, ,000 1,000 0 Africa Asia Europe North Oceania South America America

8 Nickel Mine Production In thousand tonnes 7

9 Lead Mine Production by Region (thousand metric tonnes) 8

10 Zinc Mine Production by Region (thousand metric tonnes) 9

11 Refined Copper Usage by Region (thousand metric tonnes) 12,000 Thou usand Metr ric Tonnes Copper 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, p Africa America Asia Europe Oceania 10

12 Primary Nickel Usage in thousand tonnes 11

13 Lead Usage 12

14 Zinc Usage 13

15 20,000 World Refined Copper Production p (thousand metric tonnes copper) 17,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 7,500 5,000 2, Refinery Primary Refinery Secondary Refinery SX-EW 14

16 Global Copper Use sustained by Chinese Growth Copper and Copper Alloy Semis Production (2008 Not Fully Reported) by Country Gross Weight, Thousand Metric Tonnes 25, , , , , China United States Germany Japan Italy Korean Rep. Taiwan U.S.S.R. (former) Russian Fed. France Mexico India Brazil Turkey Spain Poland Sweden Egypt Greece Chile Rest of the World 15

17 Copper Stocks and Prices ,500 2, ,000 1,750 /ound) and metric tonnes ,500 1,250 1, Price LME (US cents Thous Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul-07 Jan 08 Jul-08 Jan 09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jan 02 J Jul 01 Jan 01 J 0 0 Price LME (UScents/pound) Stocks 16 J J Jan 00 Jul 00

18 ICSG Global Refined Copper Market Balance & Forecast '000MT 20, ,500 15,000 12,500 10, ,500 5,000 2,500 0 WORLD COPPER BALANCE '000MT ,000 Balance (after ajustments) World Refined Production (adjusted) World Usage

19 LME Nickel Prices and Stocks

20 1600 World Primary Nickel Balance Annual Data With 2010 Forecast nes ton BALANCE PRIMARY NICKEL PRODUCTION PRIMARY NICKEL USAGE 19

21 Lead Stocks '000 tonnes 550 and Prices US$ per tonne monthly average Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Stocks Lead LME Cash Settlement Price 20

22 Lead Balance '000 tonnes f 21

23 '000 tonnes Zinc Stocks and Prices US $ per tonne monthly average Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Stocks Zinc LME Cash Settlement Price 22

24 Zinc Metal World Balance '000 tonnes f 23

25 Chinese Zinc Trade '000 tonnes 700 EXPORTS 500 Source: ILZSG IMPORTS Concentrates Metal 24

26 Estimated Worldwide Exploration Budgets (in Billion US $) Source: Metals Economics Group 25

27 Exploration by Region 2009 Source: Metals Economics Group 26

28 Top 10 Countries for Exploration 2009 Source: Metals Economic Group 27

29 Lead 7.1 % Costs of a Carbon Tax Impact of a US $50 t tax Average percent increase in mining cost Met tal Nickel Copper 8.8% 12.5% Zinc 13 % Percent Change in Cost Source: Minecost.com com 28

30 Challenges for the Non-ferrous Metals Industry Ensure the supply of concentrates, secondary material and refined metal to meet evolving demand, both near term and long term Respond flexibly to changing demand while remaining profitable Develop and implement new technologies, including those related to recycling, to maintain competitiveness, enhance environmental performance and reduce energy intensity Ensure transparency and efficiency in the markets for raw materials, metals and products (The International Metals Study Groups have an important role here in meeting the data and analysis needs of the industry) 29

31 Challenges for the Non-ferrous Metals Industry Possible trade restrictions, i.e. new carbon border tariffs and carbon levies, which may result in WTO actions. Governments have a role in reducing barriers to trade Challenges presented by the three strands of sustainable development economic, environmental and social Possible changes in investment flows and relocation of operations in response to changing costs 30

32 To learn more about the Groups:

33 Current Situation & Prospects for Copper, Nickel, Lead and Zinc Don Smale Secretary-General International Lead and Zinc Study Group International Nickel Study Group International Copper Study Group UNCTAD Global Commodities Forum March 2010, Geneva 32