INTERNATIONAL NICKEL STUDY GROUP
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1 INTERNATIONAL NICKEL STUDY GROUP Asia s role - past and present in the global nickel market Metal Bulletin 2nd International Nickel Conference Seville, Spain Salvatore Pinizzotto Director of Market Research and Statistics March 2013
2 Overview of the presentation The International Nickel Study Group World Nickel Ore Production World Primary Nickel Production and Usage Nickel Prices and Stocks Nickel Developments and Capacity World Nickel Production and Usage ( ) China Nickel Pig Iron Final remarks 2
3 International Nickel Study Group An Autonomous International Governmental Organization Co-located in Lisbon, Portugal with International Lead & Zinc and Copper Study Groups, resulting in significant cost savings Enhancement of market transparency in the world nickel market Forum for discussions on nickel issues. 3
4 INSG Member Countries Australia Brazil Cuba European Union Finland France Germany Greece Italy Japan Norway Portugal Russian Sweden United Federation Kingdom 4
5 INSG Main Publications 5
6 World Nickel Ore Production (1/2) 2400 in 1000 tonnes Oceania Europe Americas Africa 6 Asia (p) (p) preliminary
7 World Nickel Ore Production (2/2) 2003 Oceania 23% Oceania 17% 2013 (p) Europe 22% Americas 31% Asia 18% Africa 6% Indonesia 11% Philippines 2% Other Asia 5% Europe 14% Americas 22% Africa 5% Asia 41% Indonesia 21% Philippines 17% Other Asia 4% (p) preliminary 7
8 World Nickel Ore Production 2011 to 2013 in 1000 tonnes Area % change 2013 (p) % change Africa America Asia Europe Oceania Total All figures from March 2014 Bulletin (p) preliminary 8
9 World Primary Nickel Production (1/2) 2000 in 1000 tonnes Oceania Europe Asia 200 Americas Africa (p) (p) preliminary 9
10 World Primary Nickel Production (2/2) 2003 Oceania 14% Oceania 10% 2013 (p) Europe 38% Americas 23% Asia 21% Africa 4% China P.R. 6% Other Asia 15% Europe 26% Americas 14% Africa 3% Asia 44% China P.R. 36% Other Asia 11% (p) preliminary 10
11 World Primary Nickel Production 2011 to 2013 in 1000 tonnes Area % change 2013 (p) % change Africa America Asia Europe Oceania Total All figures from March 2014 Bulletin (p) preliminary 11
12 World Primary Nickel Usage (1/2) 1800 in 1000 tonnes Oceania Europe Asia Americas Africa (p) (p) preliminary 12
13 World Primary Nickel Usage (2/2) (p) Oceania 0.2% Oceania 0.2% Europe 38% Americas 13% Africa 4% Asia 45% China P.R. 10% Other Asia 35% Europe 19% Americas 10% Africa 1% Asia 70% China P.R. 51% Other Asia 19% (p) preliminary 13
14 World Primary Nickel Usage 2011 to 2013 in 1000 tonnes Area % change 2013 (p) % change Africa America Asia Europe Oceania Total All figures from March 2014 Bulletin (p) preliminary 14
15 LME nickel average prices and end-month stocks tonnes US$/tonne Stocks (tonnes) Prices (Cash, US$/tonne) J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ F
16 Nickel Prices and New Capacity Nickel Prices / New Capacity Annual Avg. Price USD / t 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Past SLN 1875 Inco Sudbury 1902 Falco 1928 Rustenburg 1928 Norilsk 1933 Nicaro s Sherritt 1954 Hanna 1954 Outokumpu 1956 Larco 1956 Moa 1959 Inco Thompson 1961 Morro s Impala 1969 Bindura 1969 Empress 1969 WMC 1970 Falcondo 1971 Botswana 1973 Nonoc 1974 QNI 1975 PTAT s CMSA 1982 Codemin 1982 Tocantins 1982 Kavadarci 1982 Kosovo 1983 Punta Gorda s Anaconda 1999 Cawse 1999 Bulong 1999 Loma Niquel /2010s Barro Alto Onça Puma Tagaung VNC Ambatovy Koniambo : Jan to Aug 16 Note: no Chinese NPI projects included.
17 Project Name / Country Product Mode New Nickel Capacity on Stream / Ramp Up Estimated Production Projected Total Production Remarks Ambatovy / Madagascar Class I Ramp Up Open market Long Harbour / Canada Class I Start Up Mainly replacement Tagaung Taung / Myanmar FeNi Start Up China Koniambo / New Caledonia FeNi Start Up Open market Onça Puma / Brazil FeNi Ramp Up Open market Barro Alto / Brazil FeNi Ramp Up Open market Goro / New Caledonia Semi / Class I Ramp Up Australia & China Ramu / PNG Semi Ramp Up China & Other Talvivaara / Finland Semi Ramp Up Finland Raventhorpe / Australia Semi Ramp Up Australia & Other Taganito / The Philippines Semi Start Up Japan Santa Rita / Brazil Conc. Ramp Up Brazil & Finland Kevitsa / Finland Conc. Ramp Up Open market 17 Note: no Chinese NPI projects included.
18 AUSTRIA 0% AUSTRALIA 8% ZIMBABWE 1% VENEZUELA 1% UK 2% UKRAINE 1% SOUTH AFRICA 3% SERBIA (KOSOVO) 1% BRAZIL 7% 2012: 1.8Mt CANADA 9% RUSSIAN FED. 19% Primary Nickel Capacity CHINA P.R. 9% COLOMBIA 3% NORWAY 5% CUBA 3% DOM. REP. 2% FINLAND 3% FRANCE 1% FYROM 1% by Country GREECE 1% INDONESIA 1% JAPAN 10% KOREA 2% MADAGASCAR 3% NEW CALEDONIA 3% New committed developments: 0.5Mt NORWAY 2% NEW CALEDONIA 23% New producing countries 18 Note: no Chinese NPI projects included. MYANMAR 4% BRAZIL 27% KOREA 5% MADAGASCAR 11% CANADA 10% CHINA P.R. 8% CUBA 4% JAPAN 6%
19 China Nickel Pig Iron Nickel Production (monthly) Sources: INSG, Antaike 19
20 China Nickel Pig Iron Imports of Nickel Ores (monthly) Sources: INSG, China Customs 20
21 China Nickel Pig Iron Imports of Nickel Ores (annual, year-to-date) Sources: INSG, China Customs 21
22 China Nickel Pig Iron LME Nickel Price (monthly average) Sources: INSG, LME 22
23 China Nickel Pig Iron Imports Ferro-nickel (monthly) Sources: INSG, China Customs 23
24 China Nickel Pig Iron Imports Unwrought Nickel (monthly) Sources: INSG, China Customs 24
25 China Nickel Pig Iron Imports Stainless Steel Scrap (monthly) Sources: INSG, China Customs 25
26 Final Remarks (1/2) Europe & North America: Stainless steel scrap has replaced more and more primary nickel, even FeNi has lost ground lately The nickel evaluation in stainless steel scrap in Europe and North America is rapidly approaching the nickel evaluation in NPI in China Will stainless steel scrap also become competitive with NPI in China? Will this mean more stainless steel scrap usage in China in the future, with slower NPI growth? The Indonesian legislation on nickel ore export restrictions, what effect will that have on ore availability in China and NPI in the near and medium future? 26
27 Final Remarks (2/2) Building up of NPI capacity in Indonesia, what effect will that have on nickel prices, NPI production in China and the world nickel supply/demand balance in coming years? High world nickel stocks, particularly LME, what effect will that have on nickel prices and availability of primary nickel in coming years? Nickel has been an attractive investment object and store of value in the past, will that continue? 27
28 INTERNATIONAL NICKEL STUDY GROUP Many thanks for your kind attention! Salvatore Pinizzotto Director of Market Research and Statistics Rua Almirante Barroso, 38-5 th Lisbon Portugal phone: (351) fax: (351)
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