Markets Today. Dr. Gerhard C. Pariser. Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research Xanten / Germany
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1 April 11 th, 2011 INSG 21 st Session, Industry Advisory Panel Lisbon Global l Stainless Scrap Markets Today Dr. Gerhard C. Pariser Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research Xanten / Germany 1
2 Stainless in the Global Steel Environment Steel Production 2010 Stainless Steel Production 22% 2.2% Crude Steel Production 97.8% Stainless Steel Production 25,989 32,468 34,569 1,347 1,182 6,065 5,814 1,222 3,545 3,427 4,811 Others 2,607 Asia 12,350 13,342 Japan China 9,751 EU 27 USA 7,494 7,884 5,980 1,618 2,201 2, e 2
3 Stainless - Back on Track 40.0 Post-War Reconstruction Crisis Years Stainless Steel-Boom: Asia - Europe - USA Stainless Steel Boom: China Glob bal Stainle ess Steel Pro oduction, in Mill t Stainless Steel Production G.R.: + 5.0% p.a World-Financial Crises
4 Outline 1. Global Stainless Scrap Markets 2. Stainless Steel made of Scrap? 3. Conclusions 4
5 Global Stainless Chromium & Stainless Scrap Steel Markets 5
6 Scrap Cycles Internal Scrap External Scrap Blend Material T I M E Influencing Factors Stainless Production Stainless Consumption Historical Stainless and Alloy Consumption, Nickel Price Recycling Time 3 days 3 months Approx. 6 months years Recycling Ratio Approx.100 % Approx. 100% 60 80% 6
7 Generic & Blended Scrap Availability 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 Blended Scrap GrowthRate : 5.7 % p.a : -0.9 % p.a. in 000 t 4,000 Reclaimed Scrap Growth Rate 3, : 4.8 % p.a : 5.9 % p.a. 2,000 Gene eric Scrap 1,000 Industrial Scrap Growth Rate : 4.3 % p.a : 3.6 % p.a
8 Scrap Availability vs. Nickel Price Development 2, Scrap Availabili ity, '000 t 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 Scrap Availability LME Cash Nickel Price LM ME Cash Nickel Pric ce, US$/lb 1, e 2012f
9 in % Valuation relative to Referen nceprice, Intrinsic Values of Alloying Elements in Stainless Scrap but Ni is the main Scrap offers discounts determinant (e.g. grade 304 type scrap) Referenceprice 8.0% Ni Cr Nickel 18.0% Fe Molybdenum Chrome f 74.0% quantity in kg 76.3% 15.8% 79% 7.9% value in US$ 9
10 Stainless Chromium Made & Stainless of Steel Scrap? 10
11 Global Scrap Usage ed Stainle ess", in % p Ratio in Stain nless Melting) "Recycl (Total Scra RoW Ratio (excl. China) Global Ratio 42.3 Scrap Consumption Global RoW (excl. China) Total Scrap Consumpti ion, in Mi ill t 589_
12 Stainless Steel Made of Scrap? Primary Metals Internal Scrap External Scrap Outokumpu s Raw Material Mix between Primary Metals % Stainless Melting Internal Scrap % External Scrap % Source: Outokumpu Oy Annual Reports, Heinz H. Pariser 12
13 External Stainless Scrap Ratios of Austenitic Melting Production Exter rnal Auste enitic Scr rap Ratio o, in % Ø 2010: 39.9% Ø 2011: 41.1% Ø 2012: 41.8% USA Europe Taiwan Japan S. Korea China 13
14 Chromium & Stainless Steel Conclusions 14
15 Long-term Stainless Scrap Availability (Austenitic CrNi Stainless Steel) 35.0 Actual Forecast 30.0 Actual Scrap Availability t in Mill Lower Ratio Upper Ratio Austenitic Stainless Steel Production DB_SCR
16 Long-term Stainless Scrap Reserves (Austenitic CrNi Stainless Steel) in Mill t 500 Cum. Aust. Consumption Cum. Scrap Consumption Scrap Reserve in Mill t 300 Cum. Aust. Consumption Scrap Reserve Cum. Scrap Consumption DB_SCR
17 Summary 1. Since the introduction of Electric Arc Furnaces in Stainless melting, recycling has played a key role 2. Globally, the secondary raw material input averages between 40 and 43% - typically higher in Europe and the United States (approaching 70%), but significantly lower in China (approximately 25%) 3. Since 1970, global scrap availability has risen from barely 1 Mill t to 7.8 Mill t in 2010 and is expected to double by Scrap input reduces energy consumption and CO2-emissions, increasing sustainability in stainless steel making 5. Scrap is complementary to primary raw materials nickel and chrome 17
18 Contact Details Dr. Gerhard C. Pariser Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research Scharnstr Xanten Germany Tel.: info@heinzpariser.de You are always welcome to contact us. 18
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