TIN: The Forgotten EV Metal?
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1 TIN: The Forgotten EV Metal? DATE: 06/11/2017 PREPARED BY: Tom Mulqueen PREPARED FOR: 2017 ITRI Australian Tin Tour
2 ITRI: Delivering the future of tin
3 100% electric vehicles by 2040
4 Tin overlooked by EV hype? Annual indexed price change, Index base=100 Battery grade lithium-carbonate Cobalt Graphite flake Tin Who are ITRI? to Sep 2017 Data: LME, Roskill, BMI, UBS
5 Who are ITRI? Tin market drivers
6 Who are ITRI? Tin demand
7 348,900 tonnes globally ITRI 2016 tin consumption estimates
8 Conventional cars have many tin uses
9 2 most significant uses for EV impact
10 Tin use in car batteries
11 Tin use in lead-acid batteries 2010??? ,100t 14,400 t 4 th largest tin use
12 Lead-acid battery markets
13 Substitution by lithium-ion Tonnes tin use in lead-acid batteries
14
15 Tin opportunities in lithium-ion ANODES Current GEN1 Graphite GEN2 Graphite + Silicon (?+ Tin) Tin-Cobalt (BYD Patent) GEN3 Metal Alloys Tin Alloys Tin Compounds (Storedot Patent) GEN4 Lithium Alloys Silicon Alloys Lithium-Tin Silicon-Tin SOLID STATE 2022 TOYOTA Lithium Tin Silicon PS
16 Tin use in car electronic soldering
17 3 are most relevant for the EV revolution Tin solder use in conventional cars
18 Chevrolet Volt disassembly (2012) Source: EDN Network
19 IU -1%pa (E.g. tin plays role in EV) IU -2%pa (Central Forecast) IU -3%pa Historical data Refined tin use scenarios to 2030 Annual consumption, 000 tonnes IU = Intensity of use (Technological component of changing demand)
20 Tin Use Tin Property Lead-acid batteries Improved metallurgy, corrosion resistance Li-ion batteries Absorption of lithium ions in lattice Post-lithium batteries Absorption of alkali metal ions in lattice Solar panels Semiconductor for sunlight conversion Thermoelectrics Semiconductor for ionic diffusion Fuel cells Robust membranes for catalytic combustion Biodiesel production Organic material cracking catalyst Hydrogen production 1 Water splitting catalyst Hydrogen production 2 Liquid metal for stripping methane carbon Fusion / Solar coolant High heat capacity liquid metal Market Headline opportunities from tin versatility
21 Who are ITRI? Tin supply
22 China Indonesia Myanmar Peru Bolivia Africa Brazil Australia Other Tin mine output H vs H % +26% +7% 0% 0% +58% +6% +22% +2% H H Average LME Price US$16,226 Average LME Price US$ 19,998 ITRI 2017
23 Shares of world tin mine output Mined tin output, kt 2017e Myanmar China Indonesia Peru Bolivia 50 Malaysia 0 ROW
24 Tin mining locations in Myanmar
25 Source: Google earth 5 km Man Maw Dec 2009
26 Source: Google earth 5 km Man Maw Dec 2010
27 Source: Google earth 5 km Man Maw Dec 2011
28 Source: Google earth 5 km Man Maw Dec 2012
29 Source: Google earth 5 km Man Maw Dec 2013
30 Source: Google earth 5 km Man Maw Dec 2014
31 Source: Google earth 5 km Man Maw Dec 2015
32 Source: Google earth 5 km Man Maw Dec 2016
33 Changes in mine production to 2021 Potential changes in tin-in-concentrate production (2017 to 2021), 000 tpy Bolivia Brazil Australia Russia Other Africa China Peru Indonesia Myanmar Margin for error is significant, price elastic supply Project development not a certainty Existing mines Projects
34 Tin stocks
35 tonnes refined tin Consumer & Producer SHFE LME Visible refined tin stocks near lows
36 t refined tin Surplus ROW China World Deficit -80 Regional supply/demand balances
37 World Supply/Demand Balances in Refined Tin ('000 tonnes) Estimate Forecast f 2018f World World Refined Production DLA Sales World Refined Consumption Global Market Balance Reported stocks LME SHFE Producers Consumer/other Total World Stock Ratio (weeks consumption) Tighter market anticipated in 2018
38 30,000 3 possible price scenarios to 2021 US$/tonne 20,000 10, ITRI 2017
39 EV cherry on top for tin market bulls? EV? Tin demand stable Existing sources in decline Visible stocks near lows
40 Thank You We believe that global co-operation on markets, technology, sustainability and regulatory issues is the most cost effective route to achieve long-term success for the industry. If we work together effectively then the outlook for tin is very positive. Global co-operation for long-term success ITRI Unit 3, Curo Park Frogmore St. Albans Hertfordshire AL2 2DD United Kingdom + 44 (0) ITRI China Room 1606, C2 Tower, Jinmao Building, No. 18 Xizhimenwai Street, Xicheng District, Beijing, China, chinaoffice@itri.co.uk
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