Corn Outlook. February, 2018
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1 Corn Outlook February, 2018
2 Corn Outlook February 2018 Historical Price Reference Fundamental Backdrop Seasonal Tendency Summary 2
3 Historical Price Reference Where are Corn Prices Currently, And Where are they Historically? 3
4 4
5 5
6 6
7 USDA Supply/Demand Report : February 8,
8 Fundamental Backdrop U.S. Corn Balance Sheet in Million Bushels Crop Year 2016/ /2018 January February Change January February Change Area (Million Acres) Planted Harvested Yield (Bushels/Acre) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Feed & Residual Food, Seed & Industrial Ethanol for Fuel Domestic Total Total Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Stocks/Usage Ratio 15.65% 15.65% 0.00% 17.12% 16.12% -1.00% 8
9 Actual USDA vs. Estimates 2017/18 Ending Stocks Estimates February January USDA Average Range USDA USDA Corn Soybeans Wheat
10 Domestic Supply/Demand Fundamentals? 10
11 1,000 Metric Tons U.S. Corn Ending Stocks (Updated February 8, 2018) 140,000 Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,
12 U.S. Corn Stocks/Use Ratio (Updated February 8, 2018) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 0%
13 Bushels Per Acre U.S. Corn Trendline Yield (Updated February 8, 2018) 200 Source: USDA Economic Research Service Source: USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board
14 100,000 Bushels Total U.S. Domestic Corn Use (Updated February 8, 2018) Source: USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board & Economic Research Service Ethanol & by-products Other Food, Seed & Industrial Feed and Residual
15 100,000 Bushels U.S. Feed and Residual Corn Use (Updated February 8, 2018) Source: USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board & Economic Research Service Feed and Residual
16 100,000 Bushels U.S. Corn Consumption for Ethanol (Updated February 8, 2018) 6000 Source: USDA Economic Research Service
17 The following tables outline changes to the Global balance sheet for 2016/17 crop year & 2017/18 crop year
18 World Corn Balance Sheet in Million Metric Tons Crop Year 2016/2017 February, 2018 Supply Use Region Beginning Stocks Production Imports Feed Exports Ending Stocks Stocks/Use World % United States Major Exporters Argentina South Africa Major Importers Egypt EU Japan Mexico Southeast Asia South Korea Selected Other Brazil Canada China FSU Ukraine Net Changes from Prior Month 18
19 World Corn Balance Sheet in Million Metric Tons Crop Year 2017/2018 February, 2018 Supply Use Region Beginning Stocks Production Imports Feed Exports Ending Stocks Stocks/Use World % United States Major Exporters Argentina South Africa Major Importers Egypt EU Japan Mexico Southeast Asia South Korea Selected Other Brazil Canada China FSU Ukraine Net Changes from Prior Month 19
20 What About Global Supply/Demand Fundamentals? 20
21 1,000 Metric Tons World Corn Ending Stocks (Updated February 8, 2018) 250,000 Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 200, , ,000 50,
22 World Corn Stocks/Use Ratio (Updated February 8, 2018) 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 0%
23 70% World vs U.S. Corn Stocks/Use Ratio (Updated February 8, 2018) 60% 50% World U.S. 40% 30% 20% 10% Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 0%
24 1,000 Metric Tons 600,000 Major Foreign Corn Producers (Updated February 8, 2018) Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 500,000 Southeast Asia Mexico Argentina 400,000 Brazil E.U. China 300, , ,
25 1,000 Metric Tons 90,000 80,000 Major Foreign Corn Exporters Annual Exports (Updated February 8, 2018) Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 70,000 60,000 Ukraine Argentina Brazil 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,
26 1,000 Metric Tons Brazil Corn Production (Updated February 8, 2018) 120,000 Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,
27 1,000 Metric Tons Argentina Corn Production (Updated February 8, 2018) 45,000 Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,
28 1,000 Metric Tons Brazil Corn Exports 40,000 (Updated February 8, 2018) Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,
29 1,000 Metric Tons Argentina Corn Exports 30,000 (Updated February 8, 2018) Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,
30 1,000 Metric Tons 90,000 80,000 E.U. Egypt Southeast Asia Major Corn Importers (Updated February 8, 2018) Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 70,000 South Korea Mexico Japan 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,
31 31
32 32
33 Summary The USDA released the February WASDE report and raised the U.S. corn export expectation by 125 million bushels, the total estimate now stands at 2,050 million. The report cited increased U.S. competitiveness and reduced export movement in Argentina and Ukraine as support for the move. Also weekly U.S. corn export sales the last month have been strong and reflect three of the top four weekly totals so far this marketing year. As a result, ending stocks were lower to 2,352 million bushels. Globally, persistent heat and dryness led the USDA to reduce the Argentinian production projection, while the Brazilian estimate was left unchanged. 33
34 , LLC 120 South LaSalle Street, Suite 2200 Chicago, IL fax internet site: There is a risk of loss in futures trading. The information contained in this publication is taken from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by, LLC as to accuracy or completeness, and is intended for purposes of information and education only. Nothing therein should be considered as a trading recommendation by Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. The rules and regulations of the individual exchanges should be consulted as the authoritative source on all contract specifications and regulations. There is a risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Copyright 2017 Commodity & Ingredient Hedging, LLC. All rights reserved. 34
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