Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights
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1 DeWitt Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights London, Houston, Washington, New York, Portland, Calgary, Santiago, Bogota, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney, Dubai, Moscow, Astana, Kiev, Porto and Johannesburg
2 Global Benzene and Toluene Indian Petrochem 2014 Andy Nicholson V-P Aromatics EMEI Argus DeWitt Mumbai 30 th Oct 2014
3 25 Years Toluene & Gasoline 1,350 1,200 1, Differential Toluene - Spot R'Dam Unleaded Gas (95R) CIF NWE $/T Copyright 2012 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
4 25 Years Benzene & Naphtha $/T Differential Naphtha cif NWE Benzene Spot cif ARA Copyright 2014 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
5 Regional Spot Toluene Prices Weekly Averages 1,500 $/t 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 FOB Korea USGC NG FOB ARA 900 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Copyright 2012 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
6 Regional Spot Benzene Prices weekly Averages 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 $/T 900 CIF ARA FOB Korea FOB USGC 800 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Copyright 2012 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
7 Global Aromatics Supply 41% Benzene 57% 16% BZ (Disp, MSTDP, HDA) Gasoline Pool (Reformate) 77% Toluene PX (MSTDP, MPX) 87% Mixed Xylenes 7% MX (Disp) 94% Copyright 2013 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
8 US Refining Capacity is growing and will increase further in EIA Weekly U. S. Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity ( 000 bls per Day) and Operating Rate Distillation Capacity Op Rate Capacity Op Rate J-13 F-13 A-13 M-13 J-13 S-13 O-13 D-13 J-14 M-14 M-14 J-14 A-14 Valero and others are adding distillation capacity to process more shale crudes Copyright 2013 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
9 US domestic gasoline demand to continue to fall Slow Economic Growth; Does not include exports Renewable Fuel Standard-Target is 36 B gallons of ETOH by 2023(not achievable) CAFÉ Standard with targets of 35.5 MPG by 2016 and 54.5 MPG by 2025 Source: EIA and DeWitt forecast Copyright 2012 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
10 The US has sought to manage naphtha length by increasing exports of gasoline Copyright 2014 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
11 Reformer Operations Yields impacted by: Quality of naphtha Severity Operating rate Three contributions to gross margin Octane, or blend, value Hydrogen and LPG, credit tied to natural gas, or fuel oil, price Aromatics, chemical value Copyright 2014 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
12 Monthly US Toluene Net Trade (t) N Am S Am Asia WE MEA EE Total Net Trade Jul-14 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Copyright 2014 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
13 WE Toluene Quarterly Net Trade by Region Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Exports '000t Imports Copyright 2012 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. USA South America North America North Africa MEAG East Med Africa Central Europe East Europe South Asia East Asia Eurostat
14 India Toluene Imports '000t 2014 H Singapore Korea S. Thailand EU Others Copyright 2012 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
15 Benzene Supply sources and economic factors that have limited benzene production Global Benzene trade flows, with a closer look at the USA, China and India situations What is the outlook for the benzene market? Copyright 2014 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
16 Numerous Impacts on Benzene Supply/Price Gasoline Quality / Feed Slate Reformate Pygas Olefin Demand/Feed Slate Toluene BV Benzene Demand HDA Coal Coke/Steel Demand TDP PX Isom Toluene BV PX Demand Copyright 2013 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
17 Regional Benzene Production Sources Coal kt Toluene based Pygas 3000 Reformer 0 USA W.Europe Asia excl China China MEA Copyright 2014 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
18 Total US Benzene Production with Imports Demand was 9 million tons in 2000 Decreased by nearly 1/3 by Imports account for more than 20% of demand Less extraction feed offset by decreased demand from derivative units KT PyGas Reformate Toluene Coal Imports Copyright 2014 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
19 W.Europe Benzene Production 9000 '000t Coal HDA TDP MSTDP & MPX Reformate Pygas Copyright 2012 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
20 EU15 Quarterly Net trade as Benzene Equivalent Cyclohexane Cumene/Phenol Styrene/EB Benzene Aniline Source: Eurostat Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Exports '000t Imports Copyright 2012 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
21 Changes limit benzene production in the US and Europe Reformate extraction limited by: declining petroleum-based gasoline demand More usage of renewable or green blend components Shift in crude quality More emphasis on middle distillate production Pygas extraction limited by: Advantaged light feeds produce much less pygas Copyright 2012 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
22 Monthly US Benzene Imports with Spot Price '000 t 180 Korea Japan India W Europe FOB USGC USD/USG Benzene Imports by Country of Origin (in '000 t) Jan - Jul Change Change in % Korea % Japan % Brazil % India % Canada % Saudi Arabia % Other % Total % Copyright 2014 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
23 Paraxylene and Benzene Capacity & Consumption PX demand growth double that of benzene 16.5 mn t new paraxylene capacity planned in 4 years 6mn t new benzene capacity planned, mostly linked to PX PX cannot run at capacity in next five years Uncompetitive PX capacity will be rationalized Feedstock a constraint for some PX capacity World Paraxylene & Benzene Demand PX Bz Copyright 2014 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
24 Benzene Trade In China (t) Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Imports (t) Exports (t) Copyright 2013 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
25 India Benzene Exports '000t 2014 H Singapore Saudi Arabia USA EU Others Copyright 2012 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
26 2014 World Benzene Trade Copyright 2014 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
27 US Benzene Costs from Toluene Conversion and Import costs ex- Korea /GAL Benzene J'12 M M J S N J'13 M M J S N J'14 M M J S HDA TDP STDP FOB Korea +75 $/t freight Copyright 2012 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
28 Benzene Pricing and Toluene based Costs - Korea 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, $/t STDP TDP HDA fob S.Korea 0 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Copyright 2012 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
29 25 Years Benzene HDA Economics Toluene Market Value Benzene Spot cif ARA Toluene BV $/t Copyright 2012 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
30 Summary/Forward View US Imports of benzene and exports of styrene will increase. Availability of aromatics feed-stocks in Europe is falling. India, the Middle East and the US will supply incremental C6 molecules to meet European needs. Korea and India will be the main sources of increased benzene exports to the US and Europe, based on co-product paraxylene production. Paraxylene demand constraints will limit Asian benzene length. China s benzene import needs appear to be stabilising. Toluene is long in Asia and Europe, tight in the US. Disproportionation economics underpin US benzene pricing. Hydrodealkylation economics may underpin European pricing. Copyright 2014 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
31 Any questions?
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