U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook
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1 U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX August 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies (each BBVA Group Company) for distribution in the United States and the rest of the world and is provided for information purposes only. Within the US, BBVA operates primarily through its subsidiary Compass Bank. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein refer to the specific date and are subject to changes without notice due to market fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources, believed to be correct by the Company concerning their accuracy, completeness, and/or correctness. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to acquire or dispose of an interest in securities.
2 Bottom Line In August, the price of crude oil dropped to its lowest level since March 2009 as the oil supply glut continues Market sentiment is on the downside as indicated by the decline in futures prices. Last month, the total active rig count fell to its lowest level since January 2003; we expect a steady decline in crude oil production by early 2016 (see: The Dynamics of Crude Oil Production) In July, Texas employment in mining and logging experienced its biggest YoY decline since March 2010 The Obama administration approved limited crude oil trading with Mexico, which could possibly lead to further loosening of the export ban and an improved trade balance, although the impact on domestic fuel prices is uncertain
3 Spot Prices WTI Spot Price (avg, $/bbl) Libyan production increases by more than 300% from June Iraqi production increases by 24% from previous year OPEC announces weaker demand & U.S. production reaches record high Nuclear deal between Iran and P5+1 China devalues its currency EIA cuts its oil price forecasts Saudi Arabia refusal to cut production Rig count falls to lowest level since January 2003 WTI at $41.14 as of August 20,
4 Spot Prices Crude Oil and Natural Gas Spot Prices U.S. economy expands 2.9% between Great Recession U.S. production of crude oil goes from 5.2 million B/D to 9.6 million B/D Cushing OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel), lhs Natural Gas Price, Henry Hub, LA {EIA} ($/mmbtu), rhs
5 Futures Prices WTI Futures ($/bbl) st expiring contract (nearby) 2-month 3-month 4-month 6-month 1-year 2-year
6 Forecasts EIA: Oil and Natural Gas Forecast Spot Crude Price: West Texas Intermediate ($/bbl, WSJ), lhs Henry Hub Spot Price ($/mmbtu), rhs Projections are generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model Source: Energy Information Administration/ Haver Analytics 6
7 Futures Prices Natural Gas Futures ($/mmbtu) st expiring contract (nearby) 3 months ahead 6 months ahead 2.0 7
8 Supply and Demand Global Oil Supply and Demand Balance (mmbbl/day) month MA
9 Production Production for Top Crude Oil Producers (Thous. B/D) USA Saudi Arabia Russia Iraq
10 Production U.S. Crude Oil Field Production (mmbbl/day) North Dakota Texas U.S
11 Rig Count U.S. Active Rig Count (units) Horizontal Vertical
12 Rig Count Rig Count Productivity (bbl/day) Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobara Permian Utica Source: Energy Information Administration 12
13 Investment U.S. Real Private Fixed Investment: Mining Exploration/Shafts/Wells, % Change (SAAR)
14 Private Fixed Investment Contributions to % Change by Type of Structure (SAAR, %) Other structures Mining exploration, shafts & wells Power and communication Manufacturing Commercial/ Healthcare 2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 14
15 Production Simulated Crude Oil Production (mmbbl/day) Crude oil prod. forecast Crude oil prod. forecast (lower bound) Crude oil prod. forecast (upper bound) abr-15 may-15 jun-15 jul-15 ago-15 sep-15 oct-15 nov-15 dic-15 ene-16 feb-16 mar-16 15
16 Inventories U.S. Stocks of Crude Oil Excl. SPR (EOP, thousand barrels) 500, , , , , , , , , , ,
17 Inventories U.S. Stocks of Natural Gas (SA, End of WK, billion cubic feet)
18 Net Imports U.S. Production and Net Imports of Crude Oil (mmbbl/month) 350 Net Imports Production
19 Net Imports U.S. Production and Net Imports of Natural Gas (Bill. CF) Net Imports Production
20 Exchange Rate WTI ($/bbl) and U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate (Mar-73=100) 160 WTI 140 Real Broad Trade-Weighted
21 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Debt High Yield Bonds (option adjusted spreads relative to U.S. treasuries) Energy Total Source: Bloomberg 21
22 Debt Median Net Debt to EBITDA 2.5 Selected E&P companies 2.0 Dow Jones Industrial Average Source: BBVA Research & Bloomberg 22
23 Debt E&P Free Cash Flows (Bill.$) (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) Source: BBVA Research & Bloomberg 23
24 Stock Markets S&P Daily Stock Market Capitalization (Bill.$) S&P 500 (lhs) E&P Index (rhs)
25 4.0 Gasoline Retail Gasoline Price ($/gallon)
26 Gasoline Gasoline Prime Supplier Sales Volume (Mil. Gallons/Day) Regular Premium (rhs)
27 Employment Change in Mining and Logging Employment (SA, Thous)
28 Texas Employment YoY Change in Employees Texas (SA, Thous) Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul
29 U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX August 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies (each BBVA Group Company) for distribution in the United States and the rest of the world and is provided for information purposes only. Within the US, BBVA operates primarily through its subsidiary Compass Bank. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein refer to the specific date and are subject to changes without notice due to market fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources, believed to be correct by the Company concerning their accuracy, completeness, and/or correctness. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to acquire or dispose of an interest in securities.
U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook
U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX September 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria s (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and
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