NG Good, CL Better. May 12, 2011

Transcription

1 NG Good, CL Better May 12,

2 Value of CL will drive NG production Market is working producers focused on the highest value BTU s Oil infrastructure is needed to relieve deep discounts NG Good, CL Better N. American oil growth will reduce Gulf Coast imports if we can move it there 2

3 Natural Gas Good 3

4 U.S. Production Still on the Rise Current Levels at All Time Highs Bcf/d Maintenance & Freeze-offs 2009 Avg. = 56.4 Bcf/d 2010 Avg. = 57.8 Bcf/d 2011ytd Avg. = 59.1 Bcf/d /1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/ Source: BENTEK Supply and Demand Report, Dry Production 4

5 Sub $4.00 Breakevens Drive Resource Plays Horn $4.30 $3.24 Montney $3.54 WCSB $5.30 Pinedale $2.77 $4.32 PRB Cana Piceance $3.80 Granite Woodford Wash San Juan $3.17 $4.02 $5.13 $0.92 $2.29 $4.03 Barnett $4.01 $3.84 Permian $0.00 $5.00 $0.00 $5.00 Bakken $3.66 $1.67 $3.42 Eagle Ford Marcellus Woodford Haynesville $1.78 $2.94 Fayetteville $3.17 Source: BENTEK Note: Breakevens computed at 12:1 Crude Ratio and 1:1 NGL Ratio Green Circles Breakeven s Computed at $80 Crude and 1:3 NGL Ratio Based on 4Q2010 Financials and State Production Data 5

6 Active Rig Additions Since Low - May North-South Liquids Fairway Note: April 2011 Source: RigData, BENTEK Not all rigs/basins shown on map 6

7 Processing Capacity Additions , , Bcf/d 7

8 Production Projections (Based on Current Drilling Activity Going Forward) Gross Production (Bcf/d) Bcf/d Balance U.S. Production Balance U.S. Marcellus Haynesville Fayetteville Woodford Barnett Eagle Ford Anadarko 8

9 Impact on Prices $7 NYMEX Forward vs. Bentek $6 $5 $0.81 $1.13 $1.00 $0.91 $1.32 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 Bentek NYMEX 9

10 Crude Oil Better 10

11 Average Annual Nat Gas Price ($/MMBtu) $10.00 $9.00 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $

12 Annual Average Ratios NGL-Gas Ratio Oil-Gas Ratio

13 Historical U.S. Crude Production 10,000 8, s b/d 6,000 4,000 2, Crude Oil Crude Oil 2008, 2009 & 2010 Source: EIA, Excludes NGLs and Other Liquids 13

14 U.S. Active Rig Locations Williston Basin Bakken Shale (Oil Play) Pinedale/Jonah Tight Gas Niobrara Shale Play (Oil Play) Uinta Piceance Marcellus Shale Gas Play Woodford Shale Gas Play Granite Wash Tight Gas Sands Fayetteville Shale Gas Play Barnett Shale Gas Play Permian Basin-Oil Targets Horizontal Rigs Directional Rigs Eagle Ford Shale Play Haynesville Shale Gas Play Vertical Rigs U.S. Active Rigs Ver Source RigData and BENTEK: Lower 48 States, May 6, 2011 Dir Hor 14

15 Crude Oil Break Even Ranges $45-$95 $35-$95 $40-$60 $40-$60 $40-$65 $45-$65 $/Bbl 15

16 U.S. Crude Oil Supply Growth 1,000 2, , , Denver-Julesberg Williston Eagle Anadarko Permian Ft. Basin Ford Worth Basin Area (Bakken) & Niobrara Anadarko-TX Denver-Julesberg Permian-TX Permian-NM Anadarko-OK Niobrara Mb/d 16

17 U.S. Crude Oil Supply Growth ,316 Mb/d by End of Mb/d 17

18 Forecast Through ,000 8, s b/d 6,000 4,000 2, Source: BENTEK, EIA, Excludes NGLs and Other Liquids 18

19 Adding In Canada 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 $45-$85 Canada 19

20 N. American Crude Oil Supply Growth ,316 2,287 Mb/d by End of Mb/d 20

21 U.S. and CN Forecast Through ,000 10, s b/d 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, U.S U.S Canada Canada Source: BENTEK, EIA, BP Stat Review Excludes NGLs and Other Liquids 21

22 U.S. Crude Runs are Flat to Declining 16,000 15, s b/d 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10, Source: BENTEK, EIA 22

23 Jan 2011 to April 2011 WTI Basis $ (15) $ (20) $ (13) $ (16) $ (9) $ 1 $ 98 $ (3) $ 6 23

24 Value of CL will drive NG production Market is working producers focused on the highest value BTU s Oil infrastructure is needed to relieve deep discounts NG Good, CL Better N. American oil growth will reduce Gulf Coast imports if we can move it there 24

25 BENTEK Energy, LLC BENTEK is an energy market analytics company, focused on the natural gas market and related energy sectors. James H Simpson Vice-President and General Manager jsimpson@bentekenergy.com Contact Any Analyst Direct at (303) DISCLAIMER. THIS REPORT IS FURNISHED ON AN AS IS BASIS. BENTEK DOES NOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY OR CORRECTNESS OF THE REPORT OR THE INFORMATION CONTAINED THEREIN. BENTEK MAKES NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE USE OF ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT IN CONNECTION WITH TRADING OF COMMODITIES, EQUITIES, FUTURES, OPTIONS OR ANY OTHER USE. BENTEK MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANT- ABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. RELEASE AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITY: IN NO EVENT SHALL BENTEK BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFIT) ARISING OUT OF OR RELATED TO THE ACCURACY OR CORRECTNESS OF THIS REPORT OR THE INFORMATION CONTAINED THEREIN,WHETHER BASED ON WARRANTY, CONTRACT, TORT OR ANY OTHER LEGAL THEORY. 25