Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist. recenter.tamu.edu
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1 Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu
2 National Economic Recovery still Going 2
3 National Issues Expected GDP growth still modest: %; personal consumption 2.5% Inflation not worrisome: % - 2.0%, especially with lower gas prices Industrial production data generally positive Housing improving, but not adding a great deal to overall national economy; residential construction stable at million units Jobs expanding; unemployment rate probably down under 5.5% level or better 3
4 Percent Change in Real GDP Since % 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% 4.4% 8.7% -0.5% -0.9% 7.7% 3.8% 4.6% Average 3.4% rate of growth per year % 7.2% 2.0%2.0% -0.9% 7.2% 2.5% 2.3% 6.4% 6.5% 6.1% 5.8% 4.4% 2.5% 4.8% 3.4% 3.1% 0.2% 5.3% 5.8% -0.2% -0.6% 5.6% 5.4% 4.6% 3.1% -0.3% 2.5% 4.5% 4.1% -1.9% 7.2% 4.1% 3.5% 3.6% 3.2% 1.9% 4.8% 4.5% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.7% 3.4% -0.2% 2.9% 2.5% 1.0% 1.8% 2.8% 3.8% 3.3% 2.7% 1.8% -0.3% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 2.2% -2.8% 1.6% Source: BEA
5 Thousands of Jobs U.S. Jobs Finally Recovered 150, , , % increase % increase; 0.8% > , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 90,000 Sources: BLS, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 5
6 Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Thousands of People Working Employment Level 160, ,000 Employment up 1.1% from prior max In past 7 years! Nov ,595 Jan , , , , , ,000 90,000 Sources: BLS, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
7 Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Unemployment Rate Average since 1980= Sources: BLS, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
8 Jan-71 Jan-72 Jan-73 Jan-74 Jan-75 Jan-76 Jan-77 Jan-78 Jan-79 Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Inflation Remains Relatively Low 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Source: BLS, Y/Y % change in index 8
9 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Consumer Confidence Index Recession U.S. Source: The Conference Board (1985=100); Haver Analytics 9
10 CURRENT SITUATION: Texas The Future Just Ain t What It Used to Be! Yogi Berra
11 Texas Issues Price of oil fell ~half since July National economy, High Tech & Healthcare sectors still fairly strong: major influences Energy-dependent local economies (e.g. Houston, Corpus) more vulnerable to significant downturns Statewide or local Slowdown vs. Decline? State budget expectations from Severance Tax affected by oil price decline Downstream offsets to Upstream cutbacks? 11
12 Oil Prices & Energy Prices may not have bottomed yet: Saudi Arabia continues to protect its market share Global oil production will increase before it decreases Global oil demand not rapidly increasing even with rapidly-falling prices. The rig count will drop: January US by 199 rigs to 1,683; Texas was down 99 rigs. Expect significant cut back in upstream capital spending on E&P, i.e., fewer wells drilled Increased geo-political-military volatility among oil producing nations that need (require) $95-$100+ oil price 12
13 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Texas Active Rig Count & Price 1, Rigs (left) of WTI $160 $140 $120 $100 $ WTI$/bl (right) $60 $40 $20 $0 Source: Baker Hughes, Haver Analytics 13
14 Texas Annual Jobs 12,000,000 11,000,000 10,000,000 9,000, & % increase % 8,610,900 9,737,500 9,428,900 9,510,900 9,412,700 9,494,200 9,366,900 9,157,300 8,940,500 10,875,000 10,606,300 10,567,500 10,392,700 10,304,200 10,336,900 10,063,500 11,574,750 11,190,200 8,000,000 7,000,000 7,485,500 7,272,800 7,098,900 7,177,300 7,755,600 8,260,300 8,027,300 6,000,000 5,000,000 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, SA 14
15 Houston Annual Jobs 3,000,000 2,800, , % , % 2,693,700 2,890,942 2,788,400 2,600,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,871,400 1,827,600 1,793,900 1,795,100 1,764,800 1,977,700 1,930,000 2,060,400 2,289,600 2,284,500 2,270,400 2,286,100 2,250,600 2,198,000 2,163,400 2,350,200 2,602,600 2,591,900 2,548,500 2,533,300 2,527,600 2,448,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 15
16 Jul-78 Jul-79 Jul-80 Jul-81 Jul-82 Jul-83 Jul-84 Jul-85 Jul-86 Jul-87 Jul-88 Jul-89 Jul-90 Jul-91 Jul-92 Jul-93 Jul-94 Jul-95 Jul-96 Jul-97 Jul-98 Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Houston Business Cycle Index Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, October 1980=100 16
17 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Houston Jobs & WTI Price/bl 3,000,000 2,900,000 2,800,000 2,700,000 2,600,000 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,300,000 2,200,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,900,000 1,800,000 1,700,000 1,600,000 Number of Jobs NSA WTI $/bbl Correlation coefficient of 0.26 $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Source: EIA Monthly WTI Spot Price FOB Cushing, OK; TWC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
18 Housing Market Past 20 years, housing riding roller coaster of monetary policy, political directives and capital market manipulation caused boom-bust-boom Believe that housing market is returning to fundamentals Employment-income Household formations Affordability: Interest rates and financing
19 The Current Housing Market Price & Cost increases and Affordability Tight/Difficult mortgage credit: ATR, put-back risks slow HH income growth house price (collateral) risk Interest rates Shifting demographics: families, age, ethnic Gen Y demand Difficulty of first-time buyers to enter the market Attitude toward Homeownership Institutional investors All-cash sales
20 2Q1971 2Q1972 2Q1973 2Q1974 2Q1975 2Q1976 2Q1977 2Q1978 2Q1979 2Q1980 2Q1981 2Q1982 2Q1983 2Q1984 2Q1985 2Q1986 2Q1987 2Q1988 2Q1989 2Q1990 2Q1991 2Q1992 2Q1993 2Q1994 2Q1995 2Q1996 2Q1997 2Q1998 2Q1999 2Q2000 2Q2001 2Q2002 2Q2003 2Q2004 2Q2005 2Q2006 2Q2007 2Q2008 2Q2009 2Q2010 2Q2011 2Q2012 2Q2013 2Q2014 (Percent) US Homeownership Rate Current rate is same as 3Q s Baby Boomers enter market; homeownership grows Low interest rates and new mortgage products; Homeownership explodes from 64.1% to 69.1% 62.0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 20
21 Source: FHLMC, Job Outlook Casts Shadow on Homeownership Rate, February 2, 2015
22 WHO S BUYING? Who s Not Buying?
23 Major Demographic Trends & Changing Housing Preferences Aging population Generational changes Lifestyle & life cycle: Gen Y vs. Boomers Increasing racial/ethnic diversity & cultural shifts Economic Shift: income & wealth gap Educated and less well educated Age Race & Ethnicity Urban Concentration - urban areas 23
24 Overall Growth and Change in State Population Texas D-FW Houston Austin San Antonio Population Population % of State Total Population % of State Total Population % of State Total Population % of State Total ,145,561 6,426, % 5,920, % 1,716, % 2,142, % ,541,978 7,920, % 7,413, % 2,306, % 2,635, % ,155,084 9,970, % 9,278, % 3,035, % 3,182, % ,955,896 12,728, % 11,519, % 3,960, % 3,735, % ,369,297 16,367, % 14,221, % 5,176, % 4,013, % Number Increase 29,223,736 9,941, % 8,300, % 3,460, % 2,151, % Percent Increase 116.2% 154.7% 140.2% 201.6% 100.4% 82% of total increase will go to the Major MSAs Sources: U. S. Census; Texas State Demographer 2014 Projections ( Scenario) 24
25 Montgomery County Population 2,500,000 2,000, added 406, add 1,606,226 2,061,972 1,500,000 1,415,763 1,000, , , , ,746 49, Source: U.S. Census Bureau; 2014 Texas State Demographer s Office Projections 25
26 Fort Bend County Population 3,000,000 2,500, added 533, add 2,153,178 2,738,553 2,000,000 1,920,868 1,500,000 1,314,652 1,000, , , ,000 52, Source: U.S. Census Bureau; 2014 Texas State Demographer s Office Projections 26
27 2013 Texas population by Age 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 7,159, % Total 26,664,574 4,000,000 3,825,377 3,614,086 3,484,545 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, to 17 years 2,730, % 18 to 24 years 14.3% 25 to 34 years 13.6% 35 to 44 years 13.1% 45 to 54 years 1,591, to 59 years 1,304, to 64 years 1,743, % 4.9% 6.5% 65 to 74 years 11.0% 65+ Source: Texas State Demographer s Office 2012 Projections Scenario 879, % 75 to 84 years 332, % 85 years and over 27
28 Percent Change from 2010 to 2050 by Age Groups in the Texas Population 300% 250% 259.0% 200% 150% 100% 119.5% 89.4% 101.8% 111.7% 110.5% 50% 0% ALL < Sources: Texas State Demographer s Office 2012 Projections 1.0 Scenario 28
29 Total <34 Years Years Years Years 68 > Years First-Time Home Buyers by Age Group (Percent of All Buyers) 80% 70% 2014 Texas first-time buyer was 32 60% 50% 40% 30% 76% 20% 10% 38% 35% 0% 16% 9% 2% Source: 2014 NAR Home Buyers and Sellers Survey
30 <34 Years Years Years Years 68 > Years Age of All Home Buyers (Percent Distribution and Median Age in Group) 35% 30% Texas buyer was 45 25% 20% 15% 31% 30% % 5% 0% 16% 14% 72 9% Source: 2014 NAR Home Buyers and Sellers Survey
31 Gen Y Housing Outlook Gen Y Emerging Adults Plugged in Social Educated Outspoken More liberal Multicultural High performance High expectations Marry later buy later Fewer children, later Gen Y Housing Seen the housing collapse Currently 51% rent 80+% eventually want to buy First-time buyers mostly with financial constraints to buying Jobs and student debt = less savings for down payment First-time buyers <30% vs. historic 40% Sources: M. Leanne Lachman and Deborah L. Brett, Generation Y: America's New Housing Wave, Urban Land, February 2011, FNMA National Housing Survey; Pew Research Group; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 31
32 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Interest Rate Mortgage and 10-Year Treasury Rates are DOWN YR Treasury 30-YR Mortgages Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FHLMC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
33 Jan-00 Jul-00 New and Existing SF Home Sales U.S. Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Existing Home Sales 000s 8,000 New Home Sales 000s 1,600 7,000 1,400 6,000 5,000 Existing SF Home Sales (left axis) 1,200 1,000 4, , ,000 1,000 New Home Sales (right axis) Sources: US Census Bureau, NAR, SAAR 33
34 New Houses Sold in the United States, by Sales Price Period Total Under $150,000 $150,000 to $199,999 $200,000 to $299,999 $300,000 to $399,999 $400,000 to $499,999 $500,000 to $749,999 $750,000 and over % 24.4% 25.3% 10.9% 4.8% 3.2% 1.2% , % 24.3% 24.0% 13.1% 5.2% 4.7% 1.6% , % 21.1% 26.0% 13.7% 7.5% 6.8% 2.6% , % 19.2% 27.4% 15.8% 8.7% 7.7% 3.5% , % 19.8% 28.5% 16.6% 8.0% 7.6% 4.1% % 20.9% 29.3% 15.6% 8.4% 8.0% 4.1% % 21.9% 30.7% 14.2% 7.2% 6.4% 3.7% % 25.6% 30.4% 12.3% 6.1% 5.3% 2.7% % 24.5% 30.0% 13.6% 6.5% 5.6% 2.5% % 22.2% 32.4% 15.0% 6.5% 5.6% 2.0% % 20.1% 32.6% 17.1% 9.0% 6.3% 2.4% % 18.4% 32.4% 19.8% 9.3% 8.4% 3.7% % 16.6% 31.7% 20.5% 10.8% 9.2% 4.8% % Change -55.3% -78.7% -32.0% 25.5% 87.8% 123.7% 188.6% 291.4% Sources: US Census Bureau
35 Current DTI Levels on New Mortgage Loans Loans Originated in January 2015 Total DTI > 38% Total DTI > 43% Total DTI > 50% Overall 46% 23% 5% FNMA/FHLMC 37% 15% ~0% FHA 65% 44% 16% RHS 40% 13% ~0% VA 56% 36% 13% Source: AEI International Center on Housing Risk, February 23, 2015
36 Why Aren t New Home Sales Increasing Faster? First-time/move up buyer employment and financing difficulties Home builders maxed out in many cases Employment & income stability and outlook Rent vs. Buy: flexibility; negative stigma; no choice Profit margins to builders better on higher-priced homes Bulk institutional investor buyers have run course Local regulatory controls and fees increasing cost of new home development 36
37 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 HMI Housing Starts, thousands NAHB HMI & SF Starts Housing Market Index Single-Family Starts 2,000 1, , , , , Source: NAHB, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 37
38 YTD Median Price of New & Existing SF Homes $300,000 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 New 2013 up 10% 2014 up 6.1% Existing 2013 up 11.5% 2014 up 6% $247,900 $221,900 $283,600 $207,208 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; NAHB; NAR
39 Annual Texas Home Sales 310, , ,000 Sales Avg Price Md Price $ ,805 $72.34 $ , ,842 $ , ,361 $310,000 $290,000 $270, , , , , , , , , ,147 $ , , , , , ,060 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190, , , , , ,638 $170,000 $150, , , , ,047 99, , , ,823 $130,000 $110,000 90,000 $90,000 70,000 $70,000 50,000 $50,000 Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
40 Record Texas Median Home Price Five Years in a Row $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50, %; % 78,200 80,00081,600 75,200 68,50068,100 71, ,900 96,200 90,600 86, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,400 Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 40
41 1990 Annual Percent Change in the % 10.0% Median Home Price in Texas 11.1% Average Change +4% Average Change Average Change +4.1% 9.1% 5.0% 4.6% 5.6% 4.0% 6.2% 5.9% 4.9% 4.9% 6.5% 4.3% 5.1% 4.6% 6.2% 7.0% 2.3% 2.0% 2.6% 1.9% 2.9% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% -0.6% peak-to-trough -1.0% trough-to-peak % -0.7% -5.0% Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
42 e Texas SF Building Permits 180, , , YTD up ~7.5%; marked slowdown average (104,800) 151, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 67,870 66, ,252 84,565 78,714 67,964 59,143 59,543 43,975 46,209 36,658 35,908 38,233 83,132 82,228 70,452 69,964 70, , , ,782 99, , ,366 81,107 81,926 68,170 68,230 67, ,400 93,478 20,000 0 Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M 42
43 e Texas MF Building Permits 180, , , MF permits Up ~22% 140, , , ,000 95,086 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,057 51,592 64,247 33,857 13,879 5,251 3,8508,273 9,304 8,291 3,745 51,576 40,245 30,165 31,281 32,521 40,715 28,381 33,958 35,791 37,537 33,036 47,271 38,671 53,196 46,918 15,837 19,741 30,729 54,145 53,615 65,700 Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M 43
44 Houston 2015 Outlook Job formation about half of 2014 level if oil prices stabilize in the $50 s per barrel; even lower if oil price is lower Home sales down 5% - 15% from best year ever, depending on impact of oil prices and potential offsets from downstream energy, healthcare, first-time buyers and National economy Home prices up 5% to 7% - continued tight inventory for sale
45 Houston Annual Home Sales 90,000 80, %; % % - marked slowdown 80,994 77,668 83,160 80,848 72,800 70,000 66,979 65,169 68,643 60,000 50,000 60,732 56,563 51,433 52,45953,856 48,767 60,106 58,854 56,807 40,000 30,000 40,673 36,894 33,617 32,491 29,726 30,080 30,78332,37133,386 20,000 Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
46 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 Monthly Home Sales Houston Home Sales & WTI Price /bl Monthly January 1995 to Current 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2, ,000 Monthly WTI Crude Price $/bl Source: EIA; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M 46
47 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Houston Months Inventory Inventory at extremely low level relative to market activity Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M 47
48 Jul-05 Houston Median Home Prices $210,000 $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 66,00065, % % 72,400 78,400 79,900 83,000 78,20078,300 88,900 94, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,700 Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
49 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Houston Median Home Price $210, Month Moving Average $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 $130,000 $110,000 $90,000 $70,000 Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 49
50 Percent of Total Sales Percent of Houston Home Sales by Price $99,999 or less 100, , , , ,000 or more Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M 50
51 Houston Median Price & WTI Price/bl Monthly January 1990 to Current $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 $130,000 $110,000 Correlation coefficient of 0.86 $90,000 $70,000 $50,000 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 Source: Avg. Monthly WTI Spot Price FOB Cushing, OK; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
52 Montgomery County Median Home $260,000 Price $240,000 $220,000 Annual average increase of 4.3% %; % 212, ,300 $200, ,800 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120, , , , ,200143, , ,100139, , , , ,300177,200178, ,300 $100,000 88,10087,600 89,700 98,200 $80,000 $60,000 Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
53 Fort Bend County Median Home Prices $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 Annual average increase of 4.5% %; % 234, ,300 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 $130,000 $110,000 $90,000 90,50090,500 92, , , , , , , ,600182, , , ,700154, , , ,600198, ,900 $70,000 $50,000 Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
54 Harris County Fort Bend County Montgomery County January Market Activity by Major Sales Y/Y % County Median Price Y/Y % Price per Sq.Ft. Y/Y % DoM Months Invent. 2, % $173, % $ % % $265, % $ % % $205, % $ % MSA* 4, % $190, % $ % *10-County Area: Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, San Jacinto, and Waller Counties Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 54
55 January Y/Y Percent Change in Sales by Zip Code Produced by: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Data: Houston Association of REALTORS /CoreLogic Solutions LLC 55
56 January Y/Y Percent Change in Average Price/Sq. Ft. by Zip Code Produced by: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Data: Houston Association of REALTORS /CoreLogic Solutions LLC 56
57 Houston MSA SF Building Permits 60,000 50,000 40, % % % 55,159 51,202 45,092 42,040 42,217 34,685 34,543 38,319 30,000 20,000 10,000 21,160 25,763 30,563 30,303 17,820 8,886 7,803 7,514 8,093 9,894 10,963 15,159 15,661 15,762 15,873 13,535 19,463 20,854 25,414 25,617 28,169 30,490 28,188 22,328 22,369 22,887 28,624 0 Source: U. S. Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
58 Houston SF Permits & WTI Price/bl Monthly January 1995 to Current 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 Source: Avg. Monthly WTI Spot Price FOB Cushing, OK; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
59 ,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 Houston MF Building Permits 42,355 32, % % % % 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,310 21,543 12,687 4,067 3,667 3,887 3,341 2,2432, , ,690 4,783 4,499 11,265 20,189 10,150 7,631 6,643 11,382 16,586 10,602 10,468 15,733 20,312 14,165 4,709 4,858 8,281 14,525 16,649 25,044 Source: U. S. Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
60 Houston MF Permits & WTI Price/bl Monthly January 1995 to Current 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 Source: Avg. Monthly WTI Spot Price FOB Cushing, OK; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
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