World Vegetable Oil Themes in 2018/19
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1 World Vegetable Oil Themes in 2018/19 Ben Buckner AgResource Company
2 World Veg Oil Themes in 2018 POLITICS Disorder, Trade Barriers (India More than China?) HUGE difference between world soybean supply & demand and other oilseed supply & demand CURRENCIES Again boosting profitability in South America, Black Sea WEATHER El Nino? Maybe Stagnant Weather Patterns? More Extremes? Duration of drought in Europe ENERGY Global petroleum deficits likely into 2019 Particularly in US Brent Crude below $70 unlikely Biofuel markets stay healthy
3 World Veg Oil Themes in 2018 CHINA INDIA ENERGY
4 World Demand for Ag Products 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% Veg Oil Corn Wheat 136% 79% 27%
5 Global per Capita Vegoil Consumption Kg
6 NO PROBLEM FEEDING 8 BILLION PEOPLE
7 Change in Harvested Major Crop Acres 55 Mil Hectare Jump! World 1998: 589 Mil Hectares 2018: 643 Mil Hectares 2,2-2,8-1,5 5,8 Asia 9,6 South America FSU Africa North America 6,2 26,2 EU Australia
8 Peak Agricultural Land Forecasts: Not Until 2025 Possibly 2050? Bil Acres Measured ag area FAO/IMAGE IAASTD OECD Outlook MEA Scenario 1 MEA Scenario 2 MEA Scenario 3 MEA Scenario 4
9 World Population (7.52 Bil 2018) Mil Persons
10 Blessed with Water- Africa Could be Self Sufficient? Infrastructure/Tech?
11 Non-Irrigated US Corn Contest Yield vs US Trendline Yield 515 BPA Irrigated!
12 Global per Capita Harvested Area HAs
13 Global Coarse Grain, Wheat & Oilseed Yields Rise Corn, Wheat, Barley, Sorghum, Soy, Canola Combined MT/HA
14 Memphis Meats; Raised $17 Mil with Retail Product Expected in 2020
15 The Continued Move Away from Petroleum! China All Electric By 2040?
16 Ag Tech Faith in Our Future!
17 Global Oilseed Yield Trends 2019 Trend Yield 2.53 MT/HA, 3 rd Highest Ever MT/HA Yield Trend Yield 2,80 2,60 2,40 2,20 2,00 1,80 1,60 1,40 1,20 1,
18 Global Oilseed Yield Trends MT/HA Canadian Canola Russian Sunflower US Soy Ukraine Sunflower +12% +14% +28% +20%
19 King US Dollar Is based on Strong US Economy
20 Brazilian Farmers Cheer!
21 Long Term Brazilian Soybean Production Massive Growth MMTs Production Consumption MMTs 88 MMTs
22 Brazilian Logistics? No Problem.
23 Brazilian Soybean Exports by Port Northern Arc! Region 2015/ / / /2015 Northern Arc % Others % Total %
24 World Veg Oil Prices $USD/MT Sun Oil Palm Oil Soy Oil
25 Soy Oil, Palm Oil Price Long Term $/MT Palm Oil Soy Oil
26 VEGOIL Stocks & Stocks/Use MMTs Stocks Stocks/Use % 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
27 ENERGY
28 Crude Long Term vs. Soy Oil $/bbl Brent Crude Soy Oil $/Lb
29 World Petroleum Production & Consumption Mil bbls/day Consumption Production
30 World Petroleum Production & Consumption Mil bbls/day Consumption Production
31 Iranian Crude Exports barrels per day
32 Iranian Crude Exports barrels per day
33 US Oil Rig Numbers vs. Price Rigs Rigs Spot WTI $/bbl
34 US Oil Rig Numbers vs. US Oil Stocks 1,000 barrels Stocks Rigs Rigs
35 US Exporting Crude
36 Big Time
37 Still Net Importer for Now
38 US Weekly Crude Stocks Simply too Tight for Sub-$65
39 Palm Cheaper than Crude! $/MT MCPO Brent Crude Oil
40 US Biodiesel Production
41 US Biodiesel Margins
42 US Soy Oil Stocks vs. Crush MMTs Crush (Mil Tons) Stocks (Mil Lbs) Mil Lbs
43 Industrial Veg Oil Consumption MMTs Palm Rapeseed Soy
44 TRADE BARRIERS TALE OF TWO MARKETS
45 World Soybean Price (Fob)
46 World Soybean Balance Sheet MMTs 120 Stocks Stocks/Use Stocks/Use 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Sep 2018 Aug %
47 Combined World Rapeseed, Sun Balance Sheet MMTs Stocks Stocks/Use Stock/Use 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Sep 18 Aug
48 Change in World Soybean Trade MMTs
49 US Soybean Balance Sheet Mil Acres, Bushels 2016/ / /19 AgResource 2019/20 Beg. Stocks Harvested Yield Production 4,296 4,392 4,693 4,182 Imports Total Supply 4,515 4,715 5,113 5,052 Feed/Food Crush 1,901 2,055 2,070 2,085 Exports 2,166 2,130 2,060 2,075 Total Demand 4,214 4,321 4,268 4,295 End Stocks
50 Change in US Soybean Seed Technology?
51 US Soybeans vs. Canadian Canola
52 US Soybeans vs. Black Sea Sun
53 China Out of Options?
54
55 Indian Veg Oil Imports Fall Sharply
56 Indian Refined Palm Oil Rup/Kg
57 Indian Rapeseed Rup/MT
58 Indian Oilseed Production MMTs Cotton Rapeseed Soy
59 Malaysian Palm Oil Exports Oct-July MMTs 2012/ / / / / /18
60 Malaysian Palm Oil Production Oct-July MMTs 2012/ / / / / /18
61 Malaysian Palm Oil Production Less Exports 1,000 MTs
62 Malaysian Palm Oil Production Less Exports 1,000 MTs Recovery from El Nino
63 World Climate Changing
64 Weaker Jet Stream = Stronger Storms & Stagnant Patterns
65 Cool blob = May 2018 Extremes
66 Cool Blob = June 2018 extremes
67 Cool Blob = July 2018 extremes
68 El Nino?
69 El Nino?
70 Malaysian Palm Oil Production in El Nino Years MMTs
71 AgResource Summary Energy Markets Healthy. Supportive. Biofuel Growth Continues, though Likely at Slower Rate in Weather Uncertain. Volatile. More Extremes Ahead. Government Policy More uncertain than ever. Impossible to trade. For now all indications point towards trade barriers continuing. Veg Oil Markets Seem Cheap
72 Thank You
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