Southern African expansions set to meet growing platinum demand. Bob Gilmour. Overview

Transcription

1 Southern African expansions set to meet growing platinum demand PDAC March 24 Bob Gilmour Overview Historical platinum and palladium demand and supply Outlook for platinum demand How growing platinum demand will be met? 2 1

2 Historical platinum and palladium demand and supply 3 Platinum demand Automotive Spread of emission legislation and adoption of stricter standards Emission Limits (g/m) Tier 1 NLEV Nx Carbon Dioxide/1 Non-Methane Organic Gases (Hydrocarbons) 4 2

3 Platinum demand Automotive (cont) Diesel share of European new car sales % Source: Schmidt 5 Platinum demand Total Automotive demand oz 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1,

4 Platinum demand Jewellery Consumer desire for white metal 7 Platinum demand Jewellery (cont) New markets oz 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, China North America 8 4

5 Platinum demand oz 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Jew ellery 9 Platinum demand Other Industrial Expanding applications Economic growth Investment Price sensitive 1 5

6 Platinum demand oz 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Other 11 Platinum demand oz 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Automotive Jew ellery Other 12 6

7 Platinum supply Southern Africa South African expansions Emergence of Zimbabwe oz 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, South Africa Zimbabwe 13 Platinum supply Russia Sales erratic oz 1,4 1,2 1, Russian Sales 14 7

8 Platinum supply Secondary Increase in recycling oz Platinum supply North America Combination of primary and by-product output oz

9 Platinum supply Global supply oz 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Southern Africa North America Recycle Russia Zimbabwe Other 17 Platinum supply/demand balance oz $/oz Balance $/oz 18 9

10 Palladium demand Automotive Legislation Substitution for platinum oz per vehicle Palladium demand oz 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Automotive 2 1

11 Palladium demand Electronics Substitution by nickel in MLCC s % Palladium demand Electronics (cont) oz 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1,

12 Palladium demand Other oz 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Palladium demand oz 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Automotive Electronics Other 24 12

13 Palladium supply oz 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Other South Africa North Ame rica Recycle Russian Sales 25 Palladium supply/demand balance oz $/oz 2,5 2, 1,5 1, , Balance $/oz 26 13

14 Outlook for platinum demand 27 Outlook for platinum demand Automotive Adoption of stricter legislation Emission Limits (g/m) Tier 1 NLEV Tier Nx Carbon Dioxide/1 Non-Methane Organic Gases (Hydrocarbons) 28 14

15 Outlook for platinum demand Automotive (cont) Ongoing expansion of light duty diesel market New legislation covers heavy duty vehicles mainly diesel Growth in rest of world vehicle sales 29 Outlook for platinum demand Jewellery Resilient market underpinned by strong consumer demand New market development India South East Asia Middle East Bridal 3 15

16 Outlook for platinum demand Fuel cells Commercialisation starting 31 Platinum demand oz 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Automotive Jewellery Other 32 16

17 How will growing platinum demand be met? by Southern African expansions 33 South Africa/Zimbabwe operations 34 17

18 Bushveld Complex South Africa existing operations Implats AngloPlat Lonmin Aquarius Other Amandelbult Union Northam PP Rust Messina Lebowa Modikwa Impala Rasimone RPM Lonmin Kroondal Marikana 35 Bushveld Complex South Africa expansion projects Ramp-up, pre-production Awaiting approval Union Styldrift RPM Lonmin Twickenham Marula Two Rivers Der Brochen Everest South Kroondal Pandora 36 18

19 Great Dyke Zimbabwe existing operations Implats/Zimplats Implats/AQP Makwiro Mimosa 37 Great Dyke Zimbabwe expansion projects Pre-production Unki 38 19

20 Southern African platinum supply oz 6,5 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, South Africa Zimbabwe 39 Bushveld Complex South Africa expansion projects Exploration 4 2

21 Great Dyke Zimbabwe expansion projects Feasibility study Exploration Makwiro Mimosa 41 Global platinum supply oz 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Southern Africa ROW 42 21

22 Platinum supply/demand balance oz Outlook for palladium demand Automotive Legislation Substitution of platinum Electronics Ongoing miniaturisation and thrifting 44 22

23 Palladium demand oz 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Automotive Electronics Other 45 Palladium supply oz 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Other Southern Africa Russia North America Recycle 46 23

24 Palladium supply/demand balance oz 2,5 2, 1,5 1, , 47 Conclusion Platinum Fundamentals remain firm Growing demand met by Southern African expansions Palladium Increasing demand in automotive industry and new applications provide positive longer term outlook 48 24

25 Disclaimer This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements concerning Implats' operations, economic performance and financial condition, and plans and expectations. These statements, including without limitation, those concerning the economic outlook for the platinum group metals (PGM) industry and market, expectations of PGM prices, production, the commencement and completion of certain exploration and production projects, may contain forwardlooking views. Such views involve both known and unknown risks, assumptions, uncertainties and other important factors that could materially influence the actual performance of the company. No assurance can be given that these will prove to be correct and no representation or warranty express or implied is given as to the accuracy or completeness of such views or as to any of the other information on this website. Implats' future results may differ materially from past or current results, and actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. 25