The Path to Global Education The Big Shift

Transcription

1 The Path to Global Education The Big Shift Bernard Salt 26 August 2010

2 These slides are not for commercial use or redistribution. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. The sources of the information have been indicated within the presentation. These sources have not been independently verified unless otherwise noted within the presentation. No reliance should be placed on additional oral remarks provided during the presentation. The Presenter is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this presentation, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the presentation. The information provided in this presentation has been formed on the above basis. Forecasts are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Forecasts should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Presenter or any other person that such forecasts will be met. Forecasts constitute judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market trends, which are based on current market conditions. The Presenter does not undertake responsibility arising in any way from reliance placed by any party on this presentation. Any reliance placed is that party s sole responsibility. The Presenter accepts no responsibility to anyone for the information contained in this presentation. The Presenter disclaims all responsibility and all liability for any losses, claims, expenses, actions, demands, damages, liabilities or any other proceedings arising out of any reliance by any third party on these slides.

3 Australia has a role to play in delivering resources and services at peak humanity Population (billion) Food Security Actual and projected global population between 1900 and 2100 Energy Services Commodities 2070 Water Resources Source: Source: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, United Nations Population Division, US Census Bureau International Data Base

4 Australia s growth spiked in response to the GFC 480, , , , , , , , ,000 80,000 30,000-20, Net increase - historical Net increase old projection Net increase - current Net overseas migration - historical Net overseas migration old projection Net overseas migration - current Net overseas migration new projection Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data

5 Population growth generates business activity and demand for practical skills 1. Brisbane 21, Gold Coast 15, Moreton Bay 13, Wyndham 10, Sunshine Coast 9, Wanneroo 9, Casey 8, Ipswich 7, Melton 7, Blacktown 6,902 Top 10 growth areas in Australia over 12 months to June 2009 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data

6 Out with the Mediterraneans in with the Asians Growing Extra China 166, , India 144, , New Zealand 126, , United Kingdom 34,000 1,167, South Africa 55, ,000 Contracting Loss Italy -21, , Poland -5,000 60, Greece -4, , Malta -2,000 50, Hungary -2,000 23,000 Most growth and loss by place of birth in Australia, Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data

7 Areas of high population growth Palmerston (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between Broome 1986 and 2009 Townsville Winners Losers Busselton Augusta- Margaret River Denmark Victor Harbor Surf Coast Cairns-Port Douglas Sorell Mackay Gladstone Bundaberg Hervey Bay Sunshine Coast Gold Coast Byron Bay Coffs Harbour Port Macquarie Port Stephens Narooma Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data

8 Education will crystallise around surge points in the Australian demographic profile 500, , , ,000 Kids Pre-school Early primary Young adults Overseas workers Overseas students Household formation Little Emperor syndrome Mature adults Support for students Re-training Up-skilling Active retirees U3A Return to Uni Education for interest 100, , Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2007 and 10 years to 2017 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, Department of Health and Ageing Population Projections, 2007

9 The extension to life expectancy creates demand for an extended education phase Child Adolescence Adult Lifestyle Retired Old Child Teen Old Adult Child Adult Old Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia Source: Based on United Nations Population Division

10 Who is what is Generation Y? Born Raised in prosperity Single kids Unfazed by authority Culture of volunteering Sense of entitlement

11 700,000 International student enrolments still on the rise in k 658k 600, k 500, , , k 307k 324k 344k 380k 450k School education Other ELICOS Vocational education Higher education 200, , (f) Total overseas student enrolments in Australia by field of study, 2002 to 2010 Source: Based on Australian Education International, June 2010 data

12 Most international student growth this decade in VET, ELICOS and Uni segments Change YTD June YTD June Higher Education 34,600 54,200 19,700 VET 16,600 67,000 50,400 ELICOS 21,000 43,800 22,900 Schools 7,800 7, Other 11,400 14,000 2,600 Total 91, ,200 94,900 Most growth in VET, up 50,000 ELICOS also a major growth area, up 23,000 Uni students up 20,000 YTD June 2010 commencements of 186,200 down 13,300 or 7 per cent over previous 12 months Source: Based on AEI;DEEWR data

13 Indian student commencements in Australia dropped 37 per cent in early 2010 (YTD June) 2010 Change from China 51,800 +4, India 22,700-13, South Korea 11, Thailand 8, Vietnam 8, Malaysia 6, Brazil 6, Nepal 5,000-2, Saudi Arabia 4, Indonesia 4,700 0 Total (incl. other) 186,000-13,300 Source: Based on AEI;DEEWR data

14 There is a demographic fault line running through the Australian workforce Population growth 300, , , , , ,000 50, Actual 2006 projection 2008 projection Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years in Australia based on 2006 and 2008 outlook Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data

15 2,000,000 1,500,000 Japan s demographic fault line means fewer consumers and tax payers million 1,000, , ,000-1,000, contraction -1,500, Historical Forecast Net change in working age population (15-64) over 100 years in Japan based on 2007 outlook Source Based on Statistics Bureau of Japan data

16 China runs into a labour problem at the end of this decade ,000,000 15,000, million 10,000,000 5,000, ,000,000-10,000, contraction Historical Forecast Net change in working age population (15-64) over 100 years in China based on 2007 outlook Source: Based on United Nations Statistics Division data

17 No problems with access to labour in India ,000,000 14,000, million 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, Historical Forecast Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years in India based on 2007 outlook Source: Based on United Nations Statistics Division data

18 Australia will benefit from the rise of The Dubai Effect London New York Shanghai Hong Kong Singapore Melbourne Sydney

19 Over one-third of secondary school teachers could retire early this decade 25,000 20,000 15,000 10, : 104, : 118,700 Diff: 13,800 or 13% 34% of secondary school teachers are aged 50+ 5, and over Age profile of secondary school teachers between 2001 and 2006 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data

20 One-third of nurses are aged over 50 do we need to train and import more? 30,000 25,000 20, : 142, : 163,100 Diff: 20,900 or 15% 31% of registered nurses are aged ,000 10,000 5, and over Age profile of registered nurses between 2001 and 2006 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data

21 Key arguments for and against Big Australia FOR Props up the tax base Fills gaps in the skills base Fulfils humanitarian obligations Efficient: someone else pays for development years Investment in military security Contributes to can do national psyche AGAINST Giant Ponzi scheme Already too much congestion can t manage 22 million Increases our carbon footprint Can t deliver food, water, power to extra population Small countries have highest GDP per capita Social cohesion diminishes

22 More women More men 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% The Great Australasian Man Drought Stage 3A restrictions now apply Boy Town 27 Man Drought 35 Man Mountain Widow World -15% Australia 35 New Zealand Percentage difference in the number of men and women in Australia and New Zealand by individual year in 2006 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; Statistics New Zealand data

23 Bernard Salt twitter.com/bernardsalt linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt These slides are not for commercial use or redistribution. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. The sources of the information have been indicated within the presentation. These sources have not been independently verified unless otherwise noted within the presentation. No reliance should be placed on additional oral remarks provided during the presentation. The Presenter is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this presentation, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the presentation. The information provided in this presentation has been formed on the above basis. Forecasts are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Forecasts should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Presenter or any other person that such forecasts will be met. Forecasts constitute judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market trends, which are based on current market conditions. The Presenter does not undertake responsibility arising in any way from reliance placed by any party on this presentation. Any reliance placed is that party s sole responsibility. The Presenter accepts no responsibility to anyone for the information contained in this presentation. The Presenter disclaims all responsibility and all liability for any losses, claims, expenses, actions, demands, damages, liabilities or any other proceedings arising out of any reliance by any third party on these slides.