The Great Convergence: China, India and the new global economy. Mark Thirlwell Program Director, International Economy July 2006

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1 The Great Convergence: China, India and the new global economy Mark Thirlwell Program Director, International Economy July 2006

2 India Two views of the largest economies in 2005 Top 12 economies by GDP, PPP Top 12 economies by GDP, US$ % of world GDP % of world GDP US China Japan India Germany UK France Italy Brazil Russia Canada Spain Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2006 database 0 US Japan Germany China UK France Italy Canada Spain Korea Brazil

3 Convergence, divergence and the onset of modern economic growth (MEG)

4 GDP and population before MEG GDP and population shares (1500) % of world total Population GDP China India UK US Source: Angus Maddison, The world economy: historical statistics, 2003

5 Escaping the Malthusian trap World GDP per capita 1990 dollars, PPP basis 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Source: Angus Maddison, The world economy: historical statistics, 2003

6 GDP per capita The Great Divergence 1990 dollars, PPP basis 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 China India UK Source: Angus Maddison, The world economy: historical statistics, 2003

7 GDP and population after MEG GDP and population shares (2000) % of world total Population GDP China India UK US Source: Angus Maddison, The world economy: historical statistics, 2003

8 A big rise in global inequality Global inequality: within and between countries Total inequality 0.6 Between countries Within countries Source: Bourguignon and Morrisson (2002)

9 The possibility of catch-up... and overtaking Japan: GDP per capita % of UK level Source: Angus Maddison, The world economy: historical statistics, IMF World Economic Outlook April 2006 database

10 The start of the Great Convergence? Relative GDP per capita % of UK level China India Source: Angus Maddison, The world economy: historical statistics, 2003 and IMF World Economic Outlook database (April 2006)

11 Why Great Convergence? A question of scale

12 Ten largest countries by population Pop n (bns) Cumul. % Pop n (bns) Cumul. % Pop n (bns) Cumul. % 1 China China India India India China USA USA USA Russia Indon Pak Japan Brazil Indon Indon Pak Ngeria Ger Russia Brazil Brazil Bangla Bangla UK Ngeria Congo Italy Japan Ethpia

13 How big a footprint? 2005, % of world... China India US population GDP (US$) GDP (PPP) merchandise exports merchandise imports commercial services exports commercial services imports manufacturing value added (2003) Sources: World Bank on line indicators. Rank reported for top 20 economies only.

14 Two paths to convergence

15 Industry v Services model Structure of GDP % of value added 55 China India Agriculture Industry Services Source: World Bank World Development Indicators

16 Openness compared Ratio of trade to GDP % China India Source: World Bank World Development Indicators

17 The results GDP per capita US$ terms, current prices 2,200 1,800 1,400 China India 1, Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2006 database

18 China s convergence story: The world s factory

19 China s rising share of world trade... China's share of world merchandise trade % Ex ports Imports Source: WTO international trade statistics database

20 ... and growing share of export markets Share of selected world export markets % of total Clothing Textiles Automotive parts Office machines & telecom. Chemicals Iron and Steel Total manufacturing Source: WTO international trade statistics database

21 India s convergence story: The world s back office

22 India s growing share of world services trade India's share of 'other' world commercial services exports % Source: WTO international trade statistics database

23 Global labour arbitrage for white collar workers? Hourly wages in US dollars ( ) US India Telephone operator Less than 1.00 Health record technologist Payroll clerk Legal assistant Accountant Financial analyst Source: Table 3 in Bardhan and Kroll The new wave of outsourcing Fisher Centre Research Report, 2003

24 Living with the Great Convergence: Supply, demand, and geopolitical shocks

25 The supply shock: more labour... Working age population in 2005e millions 1, China India US W. Eur Japan Mex Kor Aus Source: United Nations Population Division (median variant). Working age population aged between 15 and 64.

26 ... plus cheaper labour... Hourly labour costs in manufacturing, 2002 Index US = 100 (US$21.11) US EU 15 JapanA ustraliaa sian NIEs Mexico China India Source: Adapted from Chart 1 in Judith Banister Manufacturing earnings and compensation in China, Monthly Labour Review, August Australia from BLS web site, India Author estimate.

27 ... equals cheaper goods Real import prices for advanced economies Index, 1995= Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2006

28 The demand shock: feeding the hungry dragon Chinese demand as % of world output Cars Steel Iron ore Aluminium Copper Cotton Oil Sources: Oxford Economic Forecasting

29 Pressure on commodity prices Selected commodity prices Index, 1995= Copper Iron Ore Zinc Crude Oil Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2006 database

30 A more equal world? Global inequality: within and between countries Total inequality Betw een countries 0.2 Within countries Source: Sala-i-Martin (2002)

31 Australia: Surfing another Asian development wave?

32 Bilateral trade is booming Australian merchandise exports % of total China India Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

33 The lift to Australian income Australia's terms of trade Index, 2003/04= Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Sep-59 Sep-69 Sep-79 Sep-89 Sep-99

34 The Great Convergence: China, India and the new global economy Mark Thirlwell Program Director, International Economy July 2006

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