XL Meeting of the Network of Central Banks and Finance Ministries: Latin America Roundtable

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1 XL Meeting of the Network of Central Banks and Finance Ministries: Latin America Roundtable Ernesto Talvi Academic Director, CERES (Uruguay) Nonresident Senior Fellow & Director Economic and Social Policy in Latin America Initiative (ESPLA), Brookings Institution Visiting Professor, Columbia University IDB, October 8 th 2014

2 References Talvi E Latin America Macroeconomic Outlook: A Global Perspective. Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities in an Uncertain World: One Region, Three Latin Americas. The Brookings Global- CERES Economic & Social Policy in Latin America Initiative (ESPLA). Talvi E "Latin America's Decade of Delopmentless Growth." in K. Dervis and H. Kharas (editors) "The Growth, Convergence and Divergence Debate.", forthcoming. Talvi E A New Trans-American Partnership. Project Syndicate. syndicate.org/commentary/ernesto-talvi-calls-for-renewed-cooperation--beginning-with-trade-- between-north-and-south-america Talvi, E., and H. Trinkunas The Upcoming Electoral Cycle in Latin America in the Midst of Social Unrest: What Lies Ahead? The Brookings Global-CERES Economic & Social Policy in Latin America Initiative (ESPLA).

3 OUTLINE I. The Global Outlook: Implications for Latin America II. Macroeconomic Challenges III. Development Challenges IV. Political Economy Challenges

4 OUTLINE I. The Global Outlook: Implications for Latin America II. Macroeconomic Challenges III. Development Challenges IV. Political Economy Challenges

5 Growth Phases in Latin America Regional Growth Rates (LAC-7 annual GDP growth) 8% 7.8% Cooling-Off 7% 6.8% 6.7% 6% 5% 6.2% 4.5% 5.5% 5.5% Avg % 4% 3.9% 3% 3.0% Avg : 3.0% 2% 2.0% 1% 0% -1% -1.0% * * FocusEconomics

6 Brookings Global-CERES External Conditions Index (BGC-ECI) (LAC-7 BGC-ECI, max = 1, min = 0) External Factors Growth in G-7 Countries Very Favorable Russian Crisis Dot-Com Crisis 0.7 Favorable Growth in China Neutral Commodity Prices Unfavorable International Financial Conditions 0.2 Very Unfavorable Lehman s Bankruptcy LAC-7 refers to the seven biggest economies in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru y Venezuela). They represent 93% of Latin America s GDP. Talvi, E., and I. Munyo Latin America Macroeconomic Outlook: A Global Perspective. Are the Golden Years for Latin America Over?

7 The Global Outlook Economic Activity in the G7 (Annual GDP growth and forecasts*, GDP weighted average) Economic Activity in China (Annual GDP growth and forecasts) 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 2.8% Historical Average: 2.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 12% 10% 8% 6% 10.4% 9.3% Historical Average: 10.5% 7.7% 7.7% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.8% 6.6% 1.0% 4% 0.5% 2% 0.0% % Primary Commodity Prices (All commodities, actual prices and forecasts, Jan-04 = 100) International Financing Costs (10 year U.S. treasury bonds yield and forecasts) % 4.2% 4.9% % % 2.6% % Source: IMF, Bloomberg, and Federal Reserve.

8 Growth Forecasts for Latin America Regional Growth Rates (LAC-7 annual GDP growth) 8% 7% 7.8% 6.8% : 5.3% 6.7% Projection : 3.3% 6% 6.2% 5.5% 5.5% 5% 4% 3% 4.5% 3.9% 3,.% 3.1% 3.6% 3.9% 4.0% 2% 2.0% 1% 0% -1% -1.0% * 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* *FocusEconomics

9 OUTLINE I. The Global Outlook: Implications for Latin America II. Macroeconomic Challenges III. Development Challenges IV. Political Economy Challenges

10 Banking Vulnerability Banking Vulnerability Ratio (BVR, Mar-14) 1.0 Fragile System Sound System Venezuela Chile Brazil Peru Argentina Colombia Mexico

11 One Region, Three Latin Americas International Liquidity Ratio (ILR, Dec-13) 1,8 1,4 0,9 0,5 0,0 Cluster III Cluster II Cluster I Argentina Venezuela Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Peru 0.2 Weak Position Strong Position 12, Inflation Vulnerability Ratio (IVR, quadratic scale, May-14) 6,9 3,1 0, Negative Outlook Positive Outlook 0,0 Venezuela Argentina Brazil Mexico Colombia Chile Peru 9,0 7.4 Fiscal Vulnerability Ratio (FVR, quadratic scale, Dec-13) 5,1 2,3 0,6 0, Venezuela Argentina Brazil Mexico Colombia Chile Peru Weak Position Strong Position

12 The Growth Outlook for Latin America Annual GDP Growth Forecasts ( average*) 6,0% Cluster III Cluster II Cluster I 5,4% 4,7% 4,5% LAC-7: 3.3% 3,7% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 2,2% 1,5% 1,3% 0,0% Venezuela Argentina Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Peru *FocusEconomics

13 OUTLINE I. The Global Outlook: Implications for Latin America II. Macroeconomic Challenges III. Development Challenges IV. Political Economy Challenges

14 Income Convergence in Latin America Latin America s Relative Income to the U.S. (PPP-adjusted per capita real GDP.*) 43% Boom Period 41% 39% 37% 35% 33% 31% 30% 29% 27% 25% 23% 24% *LAC-7 is the simple average of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru y Venezuela. Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database.

15 *LAC-7 is simple average average of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru y Venezuela. Source: WEF, Barro Lee, World Bank, NetIndex Speedtest., OECD- WTO and WIPO. The Economics of Convergence Convergence of Income and Growth Drivers in Latin America (LAC-7*, 2004=100) 125 Growth Drivers Income and Global Index Trade Intregration Quality of Public Services Physical & Technological Infraestructure Human Capital Innovation Growth Drivers Index Relative Income

16 OUTLINE I. The Global Outlook: Implications for Latin America II. Macroeconomic Challenges III. Development Challenges IV. Political Economy Challenges

17 Political Economy Challenges: Social Discontent Social Protests in Latin America Presidential Approval Ratings at the End of the Term Cooling Off Boom 50% 83% % % % % 32% 64% % 20% 40% 60% 80% Source: National polls.

18 Quality of Democracy in Latin America: A Comparative Perspective Democracy Index (The Economist, 2013) Autoritharian Regime Hybrid Regime Flawed Democracy Full Democracy Advanced Economies 8.4 Latin America 6.7 Emerging Asia 6.1 Emerging Europe 5.9 Sub-Saharan Africa 5.1 Middle East And Nort Africa

19 A New Trans-American Partnership? The TAP in Figures 620 million consumers 22 trillion USD of combined GDP 45% of Latin America s population 46% of Latin America s GDP

20 XL Meeting of the Network of Central Banks and Finance Ministries: Latin America Roundtable Ernesto Talvi Academic Director, CERES (Uruguay) Nonresident Senior Fellow & Director Economic and Social Policy in Latin America Initiative (ESPLA), Brookings Institution Visiting Professor, Columbia University IDB, October 8 th 2014

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