The Changing Global Trade Landscape

Transcription

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2 The Changing Global Trade Landscape

3 Top 10 Leading Economies in 2050 Nominal GDP Country (US$ Trillion) China 44.5 United States 35.2 India 27.8 Japan 6.7 Brazil 6.1 Russia 5.9 United Kingdom 3.8 Germany 3.6 France 3.1 Italy 2.1

4 High Technology Exports Top 10 Countries & India, 2002 Rank Country US$ Millions US$ per Capita 1 U.S. 162, Japan 94, Germany 86,861 1,053 4 U.K. 71,481 1,207 5 China 68, Singapore 63,792 15,320 7 France 52, Korea 46, Netherlands 33,667 2, Ireland 31,624 8, India 1,680 2

5 2003 Share of World Trade Total: $7.4 trillion Rest of World 31% EU 40% Hong Kong 3% Canada 4% China 6% Japan 6% United States 10%

6 Top Oil Producing Nations: 2003 Barrels per day, Millions Russia Iran China Ven. UAE Kuwait Algeria Libya S. Arabia USA Mex Norway Canada UK Nigeria Brazil

7 World Oil Consumption 2003 Total: $78.1 million Barrels per Day Rest of World 48% United States 25% China 8% South Korea 3% India 3% Russia 3% Germany 3% Japan 7%

8 FDI: Largest Inflows, US$ billions Emerg Mkts Belg & Lux EU US UK France Neth Canada Sweden

9 FDI: Largest Outflows, US$ billions EU US UK France Neth Japan Emerg Mkts Germany Canada

10 US$ billions 1400 World Total Inward FDI

11 Net Foreign Direct Investment: Developing Countries, US$ billions 100 Africa Middle East 80 Developing Asia West Hemisphere Note: 2004 estimates

12 Countries that Export Capital: 2004 Other Countries 21% Japan 19% Hong Kong 2% Netherlands 2% Korea 3% Taiwan 3% Germany 14% Sweden 3% Singapore 3% Canada 3% Switzerland 4% China 5% Norway 5% Saudi Arabia 6% Russia 7%

13 Countries that Import Capital: 2004 Hungary 1% Portugal 1% Greece 1% France 1% Turkey 1% Italy 2% Australia 4% Spain 4% United Kingdom 5% Other Countries 9% United States 71%

14 US$ Billions U.S. Trade in Services Exports and Imports, Exports Imports Trade Balance

15 U.S. Exports in Services By Category, 2004 U.S. Gov. Misc. 0.2% Military- Defense Transfers 4.0% Passenger Fares 5.6% Other Transpot. 11.0% Other Private Services 42.0% Travel 22.1% Royalties and License Fees 15.1%

16 U.S. Exports in Services 2000 and Percent Category (US$ Bil.) (US$ Bil.) Change Other Private Services Royalties and License Fees Other Transportation Military-Defense Transfers Travel Passenger Fares U.S. Government Miscellaneous Total Exports in Services

17 Top 10 Exporting States Ranked by 2004 Value, US$ Billions Percent Change Rank State Texas % 2 California % 3 New York % 4 Michigan % 5 Washington % 6 Ohio % 7 Illinois % 8 Florida % 9 Massachusetts % 10 Louisiana % U.S. Total %

18 Thousands Projected Offshoring of U.S. Jobs Cumulative Jobs Offshored Number of Jobs - L % of Total US Jobs - R Percent

19 Industries at Risk to Offshoring United States Employment 2001(Q1) (Thou.) 2003(Q2) (Thou.) Percent Change Industry Nonmanufacturing Sectors Software Publishers (except Internet) % Internet Publishing and Broadcasting % Telecommunications 1, , % ISPs, Search Portals and Data Process % Data Processing & Rel. Services % Accounting, Bookkeeping & Payroll % Payroll Services % Computer Systems Design & Rel. 1, , % Business Support Services % Telephone Call Centers % Telephone Answering Services % Telemarketing Bureaus % Manufacturing Sectors Computer and Electronic Products 1, , % Semiconductors and Electronic % Total At-Risk Industries 6, , %

20 U.S. Jobs Moving Offshore Percent of U.S. Jobs Lost by Offshoring, Annual Wage % US Offshoring Jobs Occupation Management $82,790 0% 6% 7% 9% Legal Occupations $78,910 2% 2% 2% 2% Computer & Mathematical $63,240 26% 19% 17% 14% Architecture & Engineering $59,230 3% 5% 5% 6% Business & Financial Operations $55,500 11% 10% 10% 10% Life, Physical, and Social Science $53,210 0% 1% 1% 1% Arts, Entertainment & Media $42,620 1% 1% 1% 1% Sales & Related $31,250 4% 5% 6% 7% Office & Adminstrative Support $28,260 53% 50% 50% 50%

21 Computer Programmers Average Salaries, 2003 Country Salary Range Percent to U.S. Equivalent Salary Poland & Hungary $4,800 - $8,000 6% - 13 % Russian Federation $5,000 - $7,500 6% - 13% India $5,880 - $11,000 7% - 18% Philippines $6,564 8% - 11% Malaysia $7,200 9% - 12% China $8,952 11% - 15% Israel $15,000 - $38,000 19% - 63% Ireland $23,000 - $34,000 29% - 57% Canada $28,174 35% - 47% U.S. $60,000 - $80, %

22 Percent Research Jobs Created Bay Area-Based Companies, % 11% 13% 33% 38% Semiconductor 16% 9% 9% 37% 29% Software Bay Area Rest of U.S. India China Rest of the World

23 Globally Distributed Production Functions Hewlett Packard Printer, 2004 R&D and Design U.S. India Component Manufacturing Hungary China Mexico Assembly and Testing Distribution Taiwan Local Local Local

24 Hourly Wages for Selected Occupations U.S., California, Silicon Valley and India, 2003 Occupation U.S Silicon Valley India Telephone Operator $13.48 $17.75 Under $1.00 Health Record Techs $11.79 $15.85 $ $2.00 Payroll Clerk $14.22 $21.02 $ $2.00 Legal Assistant $17.15 $24.78 $ $8.00 Accountant $23.59 $30.60 $ $15.00 Financial Analyst $28.87 $36.19 $ $15.00 Programmer $29.49 $40.31 $ $6.00

25 China Global R&D Presence Foreign R&D Centers in China, 2004 Company R&D Center Location Ericsson Ericsson R&D Center Shanhai Fujisu Fujisu R&D Center Beijing GE GE China Technology Center Shanhai GM GM Panya Auto Technology Center Shanhai Hitachi Hitachi China R&D Center Beijing HP HP Digital Signal Technology Center Beijing IBM IBM China Research Center Beijing, Shanghai Intel Intel China Research Center Beijing, Shanghai Lucent Technology Lucent Technology China Bell Lab. Beijing, Shanghai Matsushita Matsushita R&D Center Beijing Microsoft Microsoft Asia Research Institute Beijing Motorola Motorola China Research Institute Beijing, Shanghai NEC NEC-China Science Inst. Dev. Center Xian Nokia Nokia China Research Center Beijing, Hangzhou P&G P&G Beijing Research Center Beijing Toshiba Toshiba R&D Center Beijing Unilever Unilever Shanghai Research Center Shanhai Volkswagen Shanghai Volkswagen R&D Center Shanhai Xerox Xerox Shanhai Software Dev. Center Shanhai

26 US$ Billions 70 Exports to the World Imports from the World 60 Trade Balance with the World China Rising World Trade Monthly, Exports to the World 7 times increase Imports from the World 8 times increase Trade balance with the World 4 times increase

27 China's Trade with the World (US$ Billions) Exports % change Imports % change Total ,155 % change Balance

28 China s Top Exports Percent Commodity Description (US$ Billions) (US$ Billions) Change Electrical Machinery & Equip Power Generation Equip Apparel Iron & Steel Furniture & Bedding Optics & Medical Equip Footwear & Parts Toys & Games Mineral Fuel & Oil Inorganic & Organic chemicals

29 China s Top Imports Percent Commodity Description (US$ Billions) (US$ Billions) Change Electrical Machinery & Equip Power Generation Equip Mineral Fuel & Oil Optical & Medical Equip Iron & Steel Plastics Inorganic & Organic Chemicals Ore, Slag, & Ash Vehicle & Parts Copper

30 China FDI Inflow Ranked by Contract Value, 2003 Number of Contract Value Used Value Rank Country Projects (US$ Bil.) (US$ Bil.) 1 Hong Kong 13, Japan 3, Korea 4, U.S. 4, Taiwan 4, Singapore 1, Germany U.K Netherlands France Top 10 Countries All Countries 32, ,

31 U.S. Trade Deficit with China in February 2005 was at the lowest level since June 2004 Feb. 05 U.S. imports of textiles and clothing from China rose 9.8% even though America s overall trade gap with China narrowed to $13.9 billion, down 9.2% from Jan. 05 deficit of $15.3 billion due to increasing U.S. exports to China and declining imports outside of textiles.

32 Jan. and Feb U.S. Trade Deficit is running at an annual rate of $717.2 billion, a full $100 billion above the record U.S. trade imbalance of $617.1 billion set for all of The Feb. increase reflected higher prices as crude oil climbed to $36.85 per barrel vs. $35.25 in Jan.

33 The record February 2005 U.S. trade deficit of $61.04 billion surpassed the old record of $59.4 billion set last November, 2004

34 D Fence Should we introduce protectionist measures such as re-impose quotas on Chinese imports of various products to protect domestic U.S. industries?

35 US$ Millions 1600 India Offshoring Takes Off Revenues from Business-Process Offshoring in India Multinational companies entry to India British Airways GE Citygroup HCL Technologies, Speedwing Int., Standard Chartered Convergys, Daksh, HSBC TransWorks

36 Thousands Outsourcing Jobs Rise in India IT & Other Service Jobs IT Workers Other Service Workers

37 Index 2000 = IT Workers Other Service Workers 400 IT & Other Service Jobs in India Indexed Growth, * *Estimated

38 US$ Billions India The World s Back Office? India s IT Industry in 2008 Lower Estimate Upper Estimate Exports 5 Domestic Market Technology Remote IT IT Services

39 Percent 100 India More Services-Oriented India s GDP by Sector Agriculture Industry Services

40 India Is Buying More U.S. Services Exports of Private U.S. Services to India, US$ Billions 3.5 Value (L) % of US Exports in Services (R) 3.0 Percent

41 Net Legal Immigration Selected Countries, Avg. Annual, Thousands U.S. U.K. France Indonesia India Japan Argentina Philippines China Mexico

42 Emigration Rate for Highly Educated By Country of Birth, 2001 Percent U.S. Japan China Australia India Israel U.K. Jamaica Germany Hong Kong

43 Number of Foreign Workers Inflow of Foreign Workers Per 100,000 Residents, Germany Austria New Zealand Australia Canada U.S. U.K. Japan Italy France

44 U.S. Professional Worker Visa Approvals H-1B Visa, Top 10 Country of Birth, 2003 Country Total Percent India 75, % U.K. 31, % Canada 20, % Mexico 16, % France 15, % Germany 13, % Japan 13, % China* 12, % Colombia 10, % Brazil 9, % * China includes Taiwan

45 U.S. Professional Worker Visa Approvals H-1B Visa, Top 5 Occupation Group, 2002 Country Total Percent Computer-Related 75, % Architecture/Engineer/Survey 25, % Administrative Specializations 21, % Education 20, % Medicine &Health 12, %

46 U.S. Student Visa Approvals F-1 Visa, Top 10 Country of Birth, 2003 Country Total Percent Japan 81, % Korea 74, % China* 56, % India 50, % Canada 29, % Mexico 22, % Turkey 15, % Germany 14, % U.K. 14, % France 12, % * China includes Taiwan

47 U.S. Student Visa Approvals F-1 Visa, Selected Years Thousands 700 F1 Visa Approvals - L Growth Rate - R 600 Percent Change, Year Ago

48 Scientists & Engineers in R&D Top 10 Countries by Per Mil. Population, 2003 Rank Country Number Per Million Population 1 Japan 648,778 5,095 2 Finland 26,378 5,059 3 Sweden 40,534 4,511 4 Singapore 19,737 4,140 5 Norway 18,811 4,112 6 U.S. 1,201,233 4,099 7 Switzerland 26,762 3,592 8 Russian Federation 501,621 3,481 9 Denmark 18,816 3, Australia 66,775 3, China 705, India 167,

49 Thousands Engineering Graduates Bachelor s Degrees, 2004 Number Per 100,000 People Percent U.S.+Japan+Germany China U.S. Japan Germany 15

50 Thousands Foreign Students in the U.S. Rankings and Country of Origin 2 3 China + Taiwan + Hong Kong = 100, India China Korea Japan Taiwan Canada Hong Kong Mexico

51 Countries With The Most Workers People Aged Currently Employed Rank Country Millions 1 China India United States Indonesia Brazil Russia Bangladesh Japan Pakistan Nigeria 45.1

52 Number Patents Per US$ Billion of GDP U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, China Korea Japan U.S. Germany India

53 Patents Per US$ Billion of Industrial Production U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, Number China Korea Japan U.S. Germany India

54 The U.S dollar has been declining for 3 years A fact that should help narrow the trade deficit by making imports more expensive to American consumers while making U.S. exports cheaper?

55 Local Currency Unit Per US$ Depreciating $US Japanese Yen (in 100s) U.K. Euro Australian Dollar

56 The Implications of an RMB Revaluation For every 15% drop in the US$ China would sustain a $75 billion position loss Equivalent to a 5% hit to Chinese GDP Exports Domestic Demand Employment Rest of Asia RMB Revaluation

57 US$ Billions U.S. Trade Deficit Deepened 1992 M M2 Imports from the World Exports to the World Trade Balance with the World

58 U.S. Trade Deficit As Percent of Real GDP, 1992Q1-2004Q4 US$ Billions 0 Percent Trade Balance with the World - L Percent of Real GDP - R

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60 A Superpower on Borrowed Money What is happening to the US? What is the rest of the world doing? How does it look to creditors? How does it look to the debtor? What are the geo-political implications? What should be done?

61 What is happening to the US? US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (as per cent of GDP) Q1 70 Q2 71 Q3 72 Q4 73 Q1 75 Q2 76 Q3 77 Q4 78 Q1 80 Q2 81 Q3 82 Q4 83 Q1 85 Q2 86 Q3 87 Q4 88 Q1 90 Q2 91 Q3 92 Q4 93 Q1 95 Q2 96 Q3 97 Q4 98 Q1 00 Q2 01 Q3 02 Q4 03

62 What is happening to the US? US NET EXTERNAL ASSETS OVER GDP (per cent) 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0%

63 What is happening to the US? 10.00% FINANCIAL BALANCES OF THE US ECONOMY (per cent of GDP) 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% % Private Sector PSBR Foreign lending

64 What is happening to the US? US GDP AND REAL DOMESTIC DEMAND (per cent) GDP DOMESTIC DEMAND

65 What is happening to the US? FINANCING OF THE US CAPITAL ACCOUNT ($bn) $800.0 $700.0 $600.0 $500.0 $256.2 $400.0 $295.1 $300.0 $200.0 $435.6 $393.4 $459.6 $355.3 $100.0 $0.0 $42.8 $28.1 $114.0 $ $ $ Foreign official purchases Net private investment in the US Other (including discrepancy)

66 What is happening to the US? 20.0 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS AS A SHARE OF GDP (current prices, per cent) Q1 70 Q3 71 Q1 73 Q3 74 Q1 76 Q3 77 Q1 79 Q3 80 Q1 82 Q3 83 Q1 85 Q3 86 Q1 88 Q3 89 Q1 91 Q3 92 Q1 94 Q3 95 Q1 97 Q3 98 Q1 00 Q3 01 Q1 03 Q3 04 US EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES US IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES US NET EXPORTS

67 What is happening to the US? 140 US REAL EXCHANGE RATE (JP Morgan, 2000=100) Jan-70 Jan-72 Jan-74 Jan-76 Jan-78 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04

68 What is happening to the US? 20.0% ALTERNATIVE PATHS FOR US NET LIABILITIES (per cent of GDP) 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0% -80.0% % % Historic export and import trends Exports growing 10% & imports 5% Imports growing at the export trend Current account constant share of GDP

69 What is the rest of the world doing? GLOBAL BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AFTER THE CRISES (1996 and 2004) World discrepancy Non-Anglosphere Anglosphere Rest of World Middle East Total Asia New Asia Old Asia (Japan) Old Europe UK Canada Australia US -$800 -$600 -$400 -$200 $0 $200 $400 $600 $

70 What is the rest of the world doing? EMERGING MARKET INFLOW RECYCLING ($bn) e 2004f Current account balance Net capital inflow Reserves (- = increase)

71 What is the rest of the world doing? CURRENCY MOVEMENT AGAINST THE US DOLLAR (31st December st March 2005) Argentina Mexico Turkey China HK Dollar Malaysia Indonesia Russia India Singapore Thailand Japan South Korea Canada Poland UK Pound Switzerland Sweden Euro Australia New Zealand South Africa -60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

72 What is the rest of the world doing? RISE OF ASIAN CURRENCY RESERVES ($bn) $4,000.0 $3,500.0 $3,000.0 $1,314.0 $2,500.0 $2,000.0 $1,500.0 $1,000.0 $500.0 $0.0 $437.2 $397.8 $436.5 December 2001-December 04 increase $198.2 $241.7 $609.9 $824.3 December 2004 global stock Japan China Taiwan Korea Hong Kong India Singapore Thailand Indonesia rest of Asia rest of the world

73 How does it look to the creditors? RESERVES AS A PER CENT OF IMPORTS 250.0% 200.0% 150.0% 100.0% 50.0% 0.0% Japan China Taiwan S. Korea HK India Singapore Russia

74 How does it look to the creditors? STRUCTURE OF US GROSS LIABILITIES % 4.4% 14.6% Corporate stocks 17.6% Direct Investment at market value 5.2% 23.2% US liabilities report by US banks, not included elsewhwere Foreign official assets US treasury securities Corporate and other bonds US currency 14.0% US liabilities to unaffiliated foreigners reported by US non-banking concerns 17.2%

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