World Commodity markets and the paper industry : citius, altius,fortius?

Transcription

1 World Commodity markets and the paper industry : citius, altius,fortius? European leading research Institute on commodity markets Professeur Philippe Chalmin Novembre 2007 philippe.chalmin@dauphine.fr Commodity prices have been multiplied by five in 9 years ( index) 340 janvier 1988 =

2 Even without oil this is impressive janvier 1988 = And 2007 is an exciting year 350 janvier 1988 = Ensemble hors métaux précieux et pétrole Ensemble y c. métaux précieux et pétrole

3 The fantastic rise of dry maritime freight 1000 au 4 janvier INDICE BFI/BDI No one would have thought of Baltic Index at more than ! 1000 au 4 janvier INDICE BFI/BDI

4 Oil of course en $ par baril PETROLE BRUT (Brent 1er terme) And the problem in not if but when it will reach $100! en $ par baril (Brent 1er terme) Coe-Rexecode 4

5 Non ferrous metals are booming ( index) janvier 1988 = And have forgotten the subprime crisis janvier 1988 = Coe-Rexecode 5

6 Copper at $ 8000 en $ par tonne (LME au comptant) CUIVRE And the world needs it en $ par tonne (LME au comptant)

7 Nickel : after the Russian squeeze en $ par tonne (LME au comptant) NICKEL (LME au comptant) prices are firm around $ en $ par tonne (LME au comptant)

8 Who would have bet on lead? en $ par tonne (LME au comptant) PLOMB 400 And steel despite Chinese exports (price of HRB Oct 22 : $ 577 in the US, $ 470 in China, $ 672 in Europe, $ 585 for exports) ALL PRODUCTS COMPOSITE PRICE (US $/tonne)

9 Scrap, even higher en $ par tonne (LME au comptant) Ferrailles (n 1heavy melting Chicago) Coe-Rexecode And last but not least en $ par tonne PATE A PAPIER FIBRES LONGUES NBSK CIF Nord Europe (Northern Bleeached Softwood Kraft) Coe-Rexecode 9

10 Rubber, linked to tyre production en $ Caoutchouc RSS n 1 (Kuala Lumpur) 1er terme par 100 kgs Even cotton splightly higher despite US programs en $ Coton (Indice A Liverpool) 100 livres

11 But the new story is about food prices like wheat 9 $ US par boisseau BLE à Chicago 1ère échéance Wheat : Australia in 2006, Ukraine, Australia again $ US par boisseau BLE à Chicago 1ère échéance

12 Corn, despite a world and US record production $ US par boisseau MAIS n 2 (prix cash USA) Soybeans benefitting from more corn acreages $ par boisseau (prix au comptant)

13 And palmoil thanks to diesel cents de $ par livre The only real exception is sugar cents de $ par livre

14 A story of supply and demand : Supply. not enough investment at the end of the XXth century. many geopolitical problems (commodities are a curse for development). climatic changes Demand. world economic growth since China. other emerging countries Speculative interests. more than $ 200 bns invested in commodities. commodities as a new class of assets The fantastic rise of Chinese industrial production Variations sur un an en % (mm3)

15 What kind of forecasts? short term : medium term : long term :. politics. climate. demand in US and Europe (recession?). profit taking. a Chinese downturn. new investments (mines). technological changes. a new paradigm : rarity. energy. Agriculture Time has come for a finite world Le temps du monde fini commence Paul Valery (1931) 15