Polyamide Intermediates World Market Overview

Transcription

1 Polyamide Intermediates World Market Overview Synthetic Fibres Raw Materials Committee Meeting at APIC 2015 Seoul, 8 May 2015 (Emma) Liu Xiang

2 WORLD CAPROLACTAM CAPABILITY versus DEMAND 1,000 Metric Tons 7,500 7,000 6,500 If no new plants ,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 Capability to produce Forecast Growth 2.9% pa 3,500 Growth 2.7% pa 3,000 Annual Caprolactam Growth 3.4% Growth 3.0% Consumption 2,

3 1,200 1, China BASF DSM Ube Honeywell CPDC Capro Corp Lanxess Sumitomo Domo C.I.S Poland India Others Sinopec Bohui Shandong Hongye Zhejiang Juhua Shandong Luxi Hubei Sanning Fujian Tianchen Hebei Xuyang Shanxi Lanhua Fujian Liheng Shanxi Yangmei APIC 2015 CAPROLACTAM CAPACITY ,000 Metric Tons per Year China Shijiazhuang Fujian China Baling Hengyi Additions 2017 Additions Closures Additions Additions 2013 Additions

4 WORLD POLYAMIDE 6 DEMAND BY REGION 1,000 Metric Tons 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 PA6 Engineering Resin BCF & Staple High Ten Yarn Textile Filament 1, North America South America West Europe East Europe ME & Africa S & SE Asia NE Asia China

5 WORLD CAPROLACTAM REGIONAL NET TRADE ,000 Metric Tons ME & Africa 2004 S & SE Asia Taiwan & S Korea China N America S America W Europe E Europe Japan est

6 WORLD CAPROLACTAM REGIONAL NET TRADE Post Trends 1,000 Metric Tons ME & Africa 2004 S & SE Asia Taiwan & S Korea China N America S America W Europe E Europe Japan Forecast Trend to est

7 ASIAN CAPROLACTAM IMPORT CONTRACT PRICE vs BRENT CRUDE OIL Asian Caprolactam Import Contract $/ton 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Brent Crude Oil $/bbl

8 ASIAN 0.865PTA PRICE MEG PRICE vs BRENT CRUDE OIL Asian PTA MEG $/ton 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1, , Brent Crude Oil $/bbl

9 ASIAN 0.865PTA MEG PRICE TREND & CAPROLACTAM PRICE TREND vs BRENT CRUDE OIL $/ton 3, ? 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Caprolactam PTA + MEG 1, Brent Crude Oil $/bbl

10 AVERAGE PET RESIN AND PA6 POLYMER COSTS vs BRENT CRUDE OIL $/ton 3,500 3,000 PA6 2015? 2,500 PET 2,000 1,500 1, Asia Cotton Price (May-Dec ) Brent Crude Oil $/bbl

11 DEPENDENCE OF CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST ON CRUDE OIL PRICE $/ton Caprolactam 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Cats & Chemicals Packing, loading shipping 2 Fixed costs of supplying plants Delivery Energy related costs (steam, ammonia, etc.) Cyclohexane Cost of Production in Asia Fixed costs of caprolactam plant Energy dependant costs Crude Oil Price $/bbl 2012

12 DEPENDENCE OF CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST CRUDE OIL PRICE $/ton Caprolactam 4,000 Fixed costs of supplying plants Energy related costs (steam, ammonia, etc.) Cost of Production in Asia 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Cats & Chemicals Packing, loading shipping Delivery Fixed costs of caprolactam plant Energy dependant costs 1,000 Cyclohexane Crude Oil Price $/bbl

13 TIGHTNESS INDEX World Capacity World Tightness Utilisation Rate Markets Index 96.0% Very Tight % Tight % Balanced % Loose % Over-supplied 0.6 (Sloppy)

14 TIGHTNESS INDEX For a given year: World Tightness Index = log 10 Capability Capability - Consumption Capability = Annual Nameplate Capacity less Capacity off line* * Due to unscheduled stoppages, not scheduled maintenance turnarounds

15 CAPROLACTAM PRICE HISTORY - ASIA Tightness Index 1.6 VERY TIGHT TIGHT BALANCED LOOSE OVER- SUPPLIED (SLOPPY) H H H H H H H Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl

16 CAPROLACTAM PRICE SCENARIOS ASIA NOV Tightness Index November VERY TIGHT TIGHT BALANCED LOOSE OVER SUPPLIED (SLOPPY) Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl

17 THE PA66 SUPPLY CHAIN Butadiene Hydrocyanation HCN by-product Alternatives Adiponitrile H 2 HMDA HCN Andrussov + Adipic acid Acrylonitrile Electro Hydro Dimerisation AH Salt PA66

18 GLOBAL ADIPONITRILE CAPACITY Asahi 2.7% Invista Victoria 26.8% Rhodia 16.7% 2009 Invista France 16.7% Invista Orange 17.0% Ascend 20.1% Asahi 2.7% Invista Victoria 26.8% Rhodia 16.7% Invista France 16.7% Ascend 20.1% Invista Orange 17.0% Invista France 13.2% Invista Victoria 21.1% Asahi 2.2% 2019 Rhodia 13.2% Invista China 15.8% Invista Orange 13.4% Ascend 15.8% Runxing 5.3% 1,240/1,495 ktpa 1,495 ktpa 1,895 ktpa 23% 77% 77% 60% 17% 24% 23% Technology Hydrocyanation Acrylonitrile EHD

19 WORLD ADIPONITRILE CAPABILITY vs DEMAND 1,000 Metric Tons 2,000 1,900 1,800 BASF closes 116 ktpa at Wilton, UK Forecast Growth 3.7% No new plants ,700 1,600 Capability to produce = 95% capacity 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 Growth 3.1% Invista s 254 ktpa unit at Orange, USA out of action Annual Adiponitrile Consumption

20 WORLD ADIPIC ACID CAPABILITY vs DEMAND 1,000 Metric Tons 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 Capability to Produce Forecast Growth 2.7% 2,500 2,000 Growth 4.0% Invista closes 450 ktpa at Wilton & Maitland, rebuilds Orange Adipic Acid Consumption 1,

21 WORLD POLYAMIDE 66 CONSUMPTION BY END-USE 1,000 Metric Tons 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Growth % PA66 Resin Staple High Ten Yarn Bulked Carpet Textile Fibre 1, % 1.9% 1.7%

22 CHINA POLYAMIDE 66 SUPPLY & DEMAND 1,000 Metric Tons Forecast Growth 9% PA66 Capacity Growth 8% PA66 Net Import PA66Product ion

23 CHINA POLYAMIDE 66 DEMAND & SUPPLY End-Use Demand Supply by Producer Textile Filament 3% Engineering Plastics 52% High Tenacity Filament 28% Airbag 5% Guorui 2% Shenma 43% Huafon 6% Huayang 2% Invista 16% Ascend 5% Rhodia 4% DuPont 8% Cable Tie 8% Staple 4% Others 4% Nilit 4% Asahi/Tora y 4% Radici 1% Consumption 562,000 Tons Supply 580,000 Tons & China Customs

24 CONCLUSIONS Most of the world growth for caprolactam will take place in China, due to: Dominance in world production of PA6 textile filament Displacement of imports of caprolactam and PA6 polymer Massive caprolactam capacity additions in China have created overcapacity and have reduced cash margins to zero or negative. The expansion enthusiasm slow down this year due to poor margins. Some plants have been forced to close in high energy cost regions, more may follow The fall in crude oil prices will improve the competitivity of polyamide versus polyester

25 CONCLUSIONS Steady growth on the global polyamide 66 demand, but stronger growth is expected to occur in China. With Shandong Runxing new ADN plant and Invista s new HMDA plant to come on stream in China, Increased availability of raw material would help the development of polyamide 66 industry in China. New polyamide 66 polyamide capacity has been announced by Huafon Group (40 ktpa mid-2015), Invista (100 ktpa, early 2016), Henan Shenma (40ktpa, 2016). Besides existing polyamide 66 polymer players, some adipic acid producers also showed interest of investing polyamide 66 polymer plant to absorb over-supplied adipic acid capacity.

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