The Slowdown and the Stimulus: The China Production Outlook

Transcription

1 AUTOMOTIVE The Slowdown and the Stimulus: The China Production Outlook 27 th Oct 2016 Shanghai Gao TAO, Manager, Great China Light Vehicle Production, , 2016 IHS Markit. All 版权所有 Rights Reserved.

2 Contents AGENDA 2 REGIONAL OUTLOOK 3 DYNAMIC CHANGE SINCE Seasonality 8 Reason analysis 9-11 Scenarios 12 TREND IN THE FUTURE 13 Deceleration 14 Diversity 21 Expansion IHS Markit 82

3 Regional Outlook As main contributor despite of economy acceleration 2016 IHS Markit 83

4 Chinese GDP growth Slowing down gradually over years, not collapsing overnight GDP development Percent change GDP Growth 2016: 6.6% 2017: 6.2% 2018: 6.4% Y/y cumulative Y/y non-cumulative Source: IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit 84

5 Easy period for Eurozone import sourced models is over The Yuan is in a new phase - making premium imports more expensive relative to localized models for the next several years Yuan per currency unit Long Term Yuan appreciation Slow Yuan depreciation Exchange Rate (per USD) Exchange Rate (per euro)

6 World Light Vehicle Selling Rates China remains key to industry growth Total LV Sales Millions World +61% China +202% No China +35% Source: IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit 86

7 Dynamic Change Since 2015 Recovery from recession by stimuli 2016 IHS Markit 87

8 Production volume by quarter Significant decline in Q was main cause of dynamic fluctuation Seasonality Millions % Tax-cut policy as main stimulus 15% 17% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Source: IHS Markit Prod Volume Growth rate y/y 2016 IHS Markit 88

9 Reason1: Inventory Pressure Vehicle Inventory Level Business structure of dealer Month Sales structure 4% 7%2% Margin structure 5% 1 40% 55% 0.5 High inventory from Q42014 Pressure relief 87% 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec New vehicle Financial service After sales Others New vehicle Others After sales Source: CADA Source: Gasgoo 2016 IHS Markit 89

10 Reason2: Over capacity Capacity development Millions % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4, 0 0 0, 0 0 0,0 0 0,0 00CNY? Investment! Production Over capacity % Utilization Source: IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit 90

11 Reason3: Turbulence in financial market Stock index & production growth Shanghai Shenzhen Prod growth rate Registration growth 50% 100% 45% 40% 80% 35% 30% 60% 25% 40% 20% 15% 20% 10% 0% 5% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0% -20% Source: IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit 91

12 Scenarios by stimulation of tax-cut policy Expiration of Tax-Cut Policy as main impact Seasonality abnormality from 2015 to 2017 Millions Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q K units shift from Q42016 to 2017 Q Q % -3% Q Growth Rate Policy ends 2016 Policy ends : 8.1% 2014: 8.1% 2015: 4.7% 2015: 4.7% 2016: 7.5% 2016: 6.5% 2017: 1.0% 2017: 3.0% 2018: 3.0% 2018: 1.0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: IHS Markit Tax policy ends in 2016 Tax policy ends in IHS Markit 92

13 Trend in the future Full with opportunities and challenges by entering maturity phase 2016 IHS Markit 93

14 Deceleration Start to decelerate in long term future 2016 IHS Markit 94

15 Production long-term development Slowing down gradually after 2019, a decline still not expected Production volume development Millions Growth phase Adjustment phase Mature phase 60% 50% 40% % 10 20% 5 10% 0 0% Source: IHS Markit PV LCV Growth rate y/y 2016 IHS Markit 95

16 GDP in long term The GDP growth decelerates smoothly in next decades GDP growth Growth Rate % Source: IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit 96

17 PARC Vehicle population grew rapidly before due to low base PARC volume development Millions Growth phase Adjustment phase Mature phase Source: IHS Markit PV LCV 2016 IHS Markit 97

18 Urbanization Big deviation among different regions, a moderate growth still be expected growing Urbanization rapidly rate generally; but slow down gradually 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Urbanization rate: 50% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 200 1% 0 0% Millions Source: IHS Markit Urban population Rural population Urban popul. growth 2016 IHS Markit 98

19 China demographic structure Potential vehicle consumer is shrinking Share of demographic by age 100% 90% 80% Peak population in 2028: M 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 61% 53% 48% 10% 0% Source: IHS Markit up 2016 IHS Markit 99

20 Road construction Keeping moderate increase after frenzied investment Road mileage Thousand KM 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 CAGR : 3.5% : 1.6% 3,000 2,000 1, Source: IHS Markit Normal road Highway 2016 IHS Markit 100

21 DIVERSITY To fulfill the diversified requirements 2016 IHS Markit 101

22 New OEM entrances and brand expansion New entrants from other industries drives brand expansion Mega Tech Companies New OEMs Brand number Existing small OEMs Sharing Economy

23 Modular platform of JV & China OEMs Total number of platforms increase, while decrease per OEM by modular platform JV Brand JV & Local Brands Local Brand

24 Body types diversity SUV sales keeps expanding over-proportionally in long term The Slowdown and the Stimulus in China / October 2016 CHINA North America EUROPE 1% 3% 4% 8% 8% 3% 8% 5% 9% 12% 11% 10% 13% 3% 7% 4% 18% 36% 44% 38% 45% 13% 65% 15% % % % 39% % SUV Hatchback Wagon Convertible Sedan MPV Coupe SUV Hatchback Coupe Convertible Sedan MPV Wagon Roadster SUV Sedan MPV Convertible Hatchback Wagon Coupe Roadster 104

25 Shift between ages Auto consumer becoming younger Consumer share by age group Key elements for younger user >45 years old Value maintenance Appearance Quality Trafficability Price Reputation Comfortability Brand Safety <25 years old 26% 36% Source: Autohome Service Space Maintenance Cost Controllability Source: Roland Berger 2016 IHS Markit 105

26 Shift between genders Female auto consumer becoming more relevant Female consumer increasing China vs Mature markets Millions % 29% 46% 45% 3 17% 2 1 Female Male 72% 54% 55% China US Europe Source: Roland Berger 2016 IHS Markit 106

27 Requirements by female consumer Female shows different interests from male Acquisition price Body type & Size Brand >400k 250k - 400k 33% 26% MPV SUV German French Korea US 76% 62% 180k - 250k Big Japan China 120k - 180k Medium Others 80k - 120k Compact 49% 45% <80k Small Female Male Female Male Female Male Source: Roland Berger 2016 IHS Markit 107

28 NEV development in China EV is exploding in near future; Hybrid as main driver in long term EV/Hybrid PV production in China The Slowdown and the Stimulus in China / October % 1% 13% 4% 7% 41% 27% 86% 21% Electric Hybrid-Full Electric Hybrid-Full Hybrid-Mild ICE Hybrid-Mild ICE ICE: Stop/Start ICE: Stop/Start Source: IHS Markit 2016 IHS Markit 108

29 EXPANSION Next expansion wave? 2016 IHS Markit 109

30 Made in China 2025 As long term strategy of government Energy saving & Intelligent auto Fuel-Efficient Vehicle New Energy Vehicle Intelligent Vehicle 110

31 Objectives in Made in China 2025 Fuel-Efficient Vehicle 2020 New Energy Vehicle (NEV) 2020 Autonomy CAFÉ=5.0L/100KM Market share of domestic fuelefficient vehicles reach 40% Localization rate of key components increase to >50% CAFÉ=4.0L/100KM Market share of domestic fuelefficient vehicles reach 50% Localization rate of key components increase to >60% CAFÉ=3.2L/100KM Market share of domestic fuelefficient vehicles reach 60% Localization rate of key components increase to >80% Sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles reach 1 million, market share >70% Domestic suppliers of Battery and Start Motor account for 80% in China Sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles reach 3 million, market share >80% 2 domestic OEMs in Top10 OEM list, which oversee sales account for 10% of total sales Sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles dominate China market Export volume account for 30% of total production volume Penetration of vehicles in DA/PA level account for 50% Domestic vehicles in DA/PA level account for 40% Vehicles in DA/PA level maintain the heathy growth Penetration of vehicles in HA level account for 10%-20% Domestic vehicles in DA/PA/HA level account for 50% Penetration of vehicles in FA level account for 10% Domestic vehicles in PA/HA/FA level account for 50% Remark: PA=NHTSA L3, HA=L4, FA=L5 111

32 EV Charging Network Development Guide Government aims to add 12k EV charging stations and 4.8 million charging piles nationwide by 2020 Construction route before 2015 Construction route between 2016 and

33 Milestone of Autonomy by China local OEMs 2025 will be launch year of FA (Self-drive) for most of local OEMs 2011: 286 KM Autopilot experiment 2013: Model H6 with Function DA 2013: Strategic partner with CASIC 2012: Concept model Ant 2012: R&D 2015: Strategy : Strategy Qintu 2015: Model igs with DA 2018: PA 2020: HA 2020: Next generation igs with HA 2016: 2000KM Autopilot experiment 2018: PA 2020: HA 2017: New models 2016: with Auto-Park Strategy 124 and 2016: ADAS experiment on H8&H9 2020: HA 2020: FA in highway FA L Self-drive Only - Strategic Partner with Chinese Academy of Sciences - Concept vehicle WITSTAR 2014: Strategic Partner with I2R 2014: Strategic Partner with PUAWEI 113

34 Capacity expansion in China JV brands and COEM - NEV is a main driver for future capacity expansion Urumqi Huanghua Jinzhong Zhangjiakou Harbin Tianjin Cangzhou Qingdao Volkswagen - Qingdao & Tianjin Ford Harbin PSA Chengdu FCA Guangzhou Hyundai Cangzhou & Chongqing Honda Wuhan Renault Wuhan Karma - Hangzhou Tesla? 2M 1.3M Chengdu Chongqing Baoji Zhengzhou Ruili Yangzhou Changzhou Hefei Suzhou Wuhan Hangzhou Shangrao Guiyang Quanzhou Guangzhou BAIC - Huanghua & Ruili Geely Baoji, Jinzhong Zhangjiakou & Guiyang GAIG - Urumqi Chery Changshu FDG Hangzhou Hanteng Shangrao Joylong Yangzhou NEXTEV Hefei Shaolin Zhengzhou CH-Auto - Suzhou 114

35 China OEM expansion in Overseas Markets New plants and R&D centres, establishment reflect COEMs ambitions San Jose, USA R&D BAIC NEXTEV Detroit, USA BAIC Volvo: SOP2018 Ridgeville, USA Production facility Silicon Valley, USA BYD Sao Paulo, Brazil Jianghuai: SOP2016 Volvo Goteborg, Sweden Lifan: SOP2017 GWM: SOP2017 SAIC Geely Changan SAIC: SOP2017 Uzlovaya, JAC Lipetsk, Russia Birmingham, Russia London, Turin, Britain Kaliningrad, Britain Italy Jianghuai: SOP2015 Russia Changhe: SOP2018 Haima: SOP2015 Kostanay, FAW: SOP2015 Kazakhstan Docharkh, Khorasan, Algeria Iran Iran SAIC: SOP2017 Foton: SOP2017 GWM: SOP2018 Camacari, Brazil Pune, India Rayong, Thailand Chery: SOP2016 Great Wall Tokyo, Japan Foton: SOP2015 Gateway Thailand SAIC: SOP2017 Bekasi, Indonesia Manila, Philippines

36 Thank You! 2016 IHS Markit 116