Puget Sound Regional Forecast Chris Mefford Community Attributes

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1 2015 Puget Sound Regional Forecast Chris Mefford Community Attributes

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4 1,000s The Regional Economy has added jobs consistently for nearly 5 full years. In a few months, this will be the longest streak of job gains for the region - ever. Seattle-Bellevue-Everett MSA Monthly Change in Jobs 3-Month Moving Average Washington State Employment Security Department 4

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6 Topics we need to cover to understand 2015 Price of oil China growth rate U.S. interest rates U.S. lending Stock market valuation U.S. wages Income inequality Western migration U.S. immigration U.S. education competitiveness Washington education & schools Federal tax policies Washington State tax policies Dodd-Frank Federal regulation Fiscal health Demographic changes Majority minorities Natural resources Carbon credits Rare metals Public health Health care costs Health care system Social justice Environmental justice Justice Penal system World peace Extremism Terrorism Tourism Natural disasters Fracking Coal Solar Hydro Water supply Company headquarters Regional brand Boeing airplane orders Boeing job placement Microsoft products ICT talent supply Game development Medical device development Biotech Life sciences NIH funding Congress Arts and culture Place-making Seaports Transportation Bertha Waterfronts Population Life outside of Earth Portland Page 1 of 7 6

7 Contents A Little Theory Forecasts, Key Sectors American Trends & Seattle Area Trends 7

8 Circular Flows of the Economy 8

9 Circular Flows of the Economy 9

10 Circular Flows of the Economy 10

11 American Trends 11

12 Americans Personal Savings (% of Income) 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Bureau of Economic Analysis 12

13 25% Americans Consumer Debt (% of Income) 20% Revolving (Credit Cards) 15% 10% 5% Non-Revolving (Cars and Student Loans) United States Census Bureau, Federal Reserve Economic Data 13

14 $12,000 Americans Consumer Debt Per Capita Consumer Debt Inflation Adjusted, (2012 Dollars) $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $ United States Census Bureau 14

15 U.S. Government Deficit: % of GDP % 8% 6.0% 6% 4.0% 4% 2.0% 0% 0.0% -2% -2.0% -4% -4.0% -6% -6.0% -8% -8.0% -10% -10.0% -12% -12.0% Bureau of Economic Analysis 15

16 S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio Year Moving Averages 16

17 Central Puget Sound Regional Trends 17

18 1,000s The Regional Economy has added jobs consistently for nearly 5 full years. In a few months, this will be the longest streak of job gains for the region - ever. Seattle-Bellevue-Everett MSA Monthly Change in Jobs 3-Month Moving Average Washington State Employment Security Department 18

19 Puget Sound Regional Growth Annual Change in Jobs & People Change in Jobs Net Migration Office of Financial Management, Washington State Employment Security Department 19

20 Jobs (1,000s) 2,000 Puget Sound Regional Job Growth 1,800 Government 1,600 1,400 Other services 1,200 1, Manufacturing Finance and professional services Information Trade Transportation and utilities Construction Aerospace Washington State Employment Security Department 20

21 Employment in Foreign-Owned Companies 100,000 97,900 22,100 Other 80,000 60,000 3,700 4,800 7,800 Switzerland Netherlands 13,400 France 40,000 14,100 Japan United Kingdom 20,000 15,300 Germany 16,700 Canada Bureau of Economic Analysis

22 Wages remain flat in lower quantiles $120,000 $100,000 Inflation-Adjusted Wages for All Occupations in U.S. 90th Percentile (0.9% CAGR) $80,000 75th Percentile (0.5% CAGR) $60,000 $40,000 50th Percentile (0% CAGR) 25th Percentile ( - 0.3% CAGR) $20,000 $0 10th Percentile ( - 0.4% CAGR) Bureau of Labor Statistics 22

23 Long-Term Unemployed Duration of Unemployment as a Share of the Civilian Labor Force, United States, Bureau of Labor Statistics 23

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26 Central Puget Sound Regional Forecasts 26

27 Employment Forecast Central Puget Sound Region, non-farm jobs Forecast growth of 1.4% per year between growth of 2.5%. 1.5% growth (CAGR) between 2015 and Community Attributes Inc.,

28 Employment Forecast Central Puget Sound Region, Annual Growth Community Attributes Inc.,

29 Strengths & Growth Central Puget Sound Region U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, WA State ESD 29

30 Aerospace U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, WA State ESD 30

31 Aerospace Boeing Commercial Airplanes had a record 2014, with 723 airplanes delivered, and 1,432 orders worth $232.7 billion. Boeing underwent a $1 billion expansion of the Everett plant, adding 1.3 million square feet. Source: The Boeing Company 31

32 Aerospace Boeing Commercial Airplanes had a record 2014, with 723 airplanes delivered, and 1,432 orders worth $232.7 billion. Boeing underwent a $1 billion expansion of the Everett plant, adding 1.3 million square feet. Boeing Everett expansion has also led other aerospace manufacturers to invest in Everett & Snohomish County facilities. 32

33 Information Technology U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, WA State ESD 33

34 Information & Communication Technology Bryan to insert break out 34

35 Life Sciences U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, WA State ESD 35

36 Life Sciences Washington s Life Sciences cluster is ranked 5 th in the nation by the Milken Institute. Strong emphasis on R&D > University of Washington > Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center > Seattle Biomedical Research Institute > Others Source: Puget Sound Regional Council 36

37 Manufacturing U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, WA State ESD 37

38 Property Value 38

39 Growth Forecasts through 2020 Population Jobs 39

40 Thank you and Happy 2015! 40

41 Economic Development Council of Seattle and King County

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