Is this time really dierent? Long term macroeconomic paerns in the US economy
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1 Is this time really dierent? Long term macroeconomic paerns in the US economy G. Dosi M. E. Virgillito Scuola Superiore Sant Anna (R)EVOLUTION ROAD Turin, 25 October G. Dosi (SSSUP) The IV Industrial Revolution Turin, 25 October 1 / 17
2 Is this time really dierent? The Industrial Revolution was no marriage party for the working classes: it was largely an era of degradation of social conditions and it took decades for productivity growth to trickle down to the working classes. Today there are worrying factors which hint that it might not be so in near future. And they have to do with both the impact of the new technologies and, even more so, with the ways the old socio-economic regime, call it Fordist, progressively exhausted its driving force. G. Dosi (SSSUP) The IV Industrial Revolution Turin, 25 October 2 / 17
3 Some long term paerns 1 Stagnant wages and divergence between productivity growth and wage growth 2 De-industrialization 3 Declining labour share 4 Massive surge in corporate profits, especially financial ones 5 Declining labour force participation 6 Declining business dynamism and net job creation 7 Soaring inequality 8 Polarization and growing number of part-time jobs (gig-economy) G. Dosi (SSSUP) The IV Industrial Revolution Turin, 25 October 3 / 17
4 The wage productivity gap in the US Economy G. Dosi (SSSUP) The IV Industrial Revolution Turin, 25 October 4 / 17
5 Real wage growth Figure: Source: Economic Policy Institute G. Dosi (SSSUP) The IV Industrial Revolution Turin, 25 October 5 / 17
6 Real wage growth Figure: Source: Economic Policy Institute G. Dosi (SSSUP) The IV Industrial Revolution Turin, 25 October 6 / 17
7 Decline of manufacturing shares 40 Percent of Employment in Manufacturing in Germany (DISCONTINUED) Percent of Employment in Manufacturing in Italy (DISCONTINUED) Percent of Employment in Manufacturing in the United States (DISCONTINUED) Percent of Employment in Manufacturing in France (DISCONTINUED) Percent of Employment in Manufacturing in the United Kingdom (DISCONTINUED) Percent fred.stlouisfed.org myf.red/g/5awa G. Dosi (SSSUP) The IV Industrial Revolution Turin, 25 October 7 / 17
8 Decline of labour compensation shares 0.90 Share of Labour Compensation in GDP at Current National Prices for Germany Share of Labour Compensation in GDP at Current National Prices for United States Share of Labour Compensation in GDP at Current National Prices for Italy Share of Labour Compensation in GDP at Current National Prices for France Share of Labour Compensation in GDP at Current National Prices for China Percent fred.stlouisfed.org myf.red/g/5awx G. Dosi (SSSUP) The IV Industrial Revolution Turin, 25 October 8 / 17
9 Surge of profits Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 Billions of Dollars 1,200 1, Source: US. Bureau of Economic Analysis fred.stlouisfed.org myf.red/g/4jqk G. Dosi (SSSUP) The IV Industrial Revolution Turin, 25 October 9 / 17
10 Declining labor force unionization rate G. Dosi (SSSUP) The IV Industrial Revolution Turin, 25 October 10 / 17
11 Declining Job creation rate Figure: Source: Decker, Haltiwanger et al, G. Dosi (SSSUP) The IV Industrial Revolution Turin, 25 October 11 / 17
12 Jobless recovery Figure: Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics G. Dosi (SSSUP) The IV Industrial Revolution Turin, 25 October 12 / 17
13 Polarization Figure: Source: Jaimovich and Siu, 2014 G. Dosi (SSSUP) The IV Industrial Revolution Turin, 25 October 13 / 17
14 Declining job participation rate 68 Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate Percent Source: US. Bureau of Labor Statistics fred.stlouisfed.org myf.red/g/4kpd G. Dosi (SSSUP) The IV Industrial Revolution Turin, 25 October 14 / 17
15 Increasing trend in self-employment (Katz and Kreuger, 2015) Figure 1: Trends in Self-Employment Percent of CPS Total Employed Schedule C Filings CPS Unincorporated Self-Employed CPS Total Self-Employed Note: Shading denotes recession. Source: Current Population Survey; IRS Statistics of Income Publication 1304 (Table 1.3) G. Dosi (SSSUP) The IV Industrial Revolution Turin, 25 October 15 / 17
16 What do unions do? Figure: The beneficial eects of unionization - Freeman, 1980, JOLE G. Dosi (SSSUP) The IV Industrial Revolution Turin, 25 October 16 / 17
17 Conclusion (R)evolution road? Whatever the future, these are the initial conditions of the path. Be careful to not overstate technological factors alone...socio and macroeconomic conditions are equally relevant. G. Dosi (SSSUP) The IV Industrial Revolution Turin, 25 October 17 / 17
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