Trends Driving the Future of LNG Transportation. Takeshi Hashimoto, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines November 17 th, 2015

Transcription

1 Trends Driving the Future of LNG Transportation Takeshi Hashimoto, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines November 17 th, 2015

2 Outline 1. Transition of LNG Producers and Consumers 2. Advantage of LNG 3. Increasing Demand for Long Haul 4. National Interests of Both Producing Countries and Consuming Countries 5. Growing Importance of International Framework for Cooperation 2

3 1. Transition of LNG Producers and Consumers LNG Supply Weakened presence of traditional LNG producers (South East-Asia and Middle East) Rise of new LNG producers (Australia, Papua New Guinea, U.S., Russia, Mozambique and Canada) Russia Mozambique Canada West US East Australia Alaska Equatorial Guinea United Arab Emirates Norway Nigeria Indonesia Malaysia Qatar

4 1. Transition of LNG Producers and Consumers LNG Demand Peaking out of LNG demand in traditional buyer countries (Japan, Korea) Expansion of demand in emerging markets (China, India, South-east Asia, Latin America) Europe Middle East/Africa Other Asia Pacific China India Taiwan South Korea Japan Americas

5 2. Advantage of LNG Advantage of LNG 1) Environmentally Friendly 2) Abundant Reserves 3) Tradable as Commodity Further trade expansion on a long-term basis is expected once the consumers get out of the current stagnation. 5

6 2. Advantage of LNG 1)Environmentally Friendly Emission amount of CO2, NOX, SOX to obtain the same calorie Pollutant Natural Gas Oil Coal Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Nitrogen Oxide (NOX) Sulfurous Acid Gas (SOX)

7 2. Advantage of LNG 2) Abundant Reserves Proved Reserves (2014) trillion cbm Natural Gas: 56 years Oil: 53 years Coal: 109 years North America S. & Cent. America Europe & Eurasia Middle East Africa Asia Pacific SOURCE: BP s Statistical Review of World Energy 7

8 2. Advantage of LNG 3) Tradable as Commodity SOURCE: BP s Statistical Review of World Energy

9 3. Increasing Demand for Long Haul Estimated Ratio of Trades in Overall Cargo Movement 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% North America - Europe North America - Asia Oceania - Asia Middle East - Asia Middle East - Europe Asia - Asia Other Legs 9

10 3. Increasing Demand for Long Haul Change in the Transportation Distance Middle East Japan 6,700miles Approx.15days インドネシア 日本 2,600 マイル約 7 日 East Africa Japan 7,400miles Approx.17days West Australia Japan 3,700miles Approx.9days Gulf of Mexico Europe 5,300miles Approx.13days Gulf of Mexico Japan 9,300miles Approx.23days 10

11 ( 空白 ) 3. Increasing Demand for Long Haul Optimization of Vessels Upsizing of LNG Tankers Average Tank Capacity of Vessels Ordered Each Year 200 (kcbm) 180 Innovation of Engine 2018/180K 226g/kW-h 2017/180K (MEGI) 192g/kW-h /145K 284g/kW-h Vessel Size 2015/165 K 239g/kW-h 2017/180K (X-DF) 177g/kW-h /125 K 285g/kW-h ~2010 Steam Turbine 2010~2017 DFDE 2017~ MEGI X-DF 11 Fuel Efficiency

12 4. National Interests of Both Producing Countries and Consuming Countries National Interest of Producing Countries Challenge to reconcile the pursuit of economic rationality and securement of each country s national interests Expansion of State-owned companies in Qatar, Malaysia and Oman Demand of Local Contents in Brazil Photo by MODEC, INC. FPSO CIDDE DE ANGRA DOS REIS MV22 12

13 4. National Interests of Both Producing Countries and Consuming Countries National Interest of Consuming Countries Challenge to reconcile the pursuit of economic rationality and securement of each country s national interests Make in India Prime Minister Modi s visit to Korean Shipbuilders Hudong Zhonghua Shipbuilding Co. First vessel for ExxonMobil PAPUA MOL s Achievement in China 13

14 4. Growing Importance of International Framework for Cooperation International Framework for Cooperation 1) Financing by ECAs and funds such as IDB, EBRD, ADB 2) Technical Transfer from developed countries to new players 3) Extended Cooperation of ship-owners through consortium and JVs 14

15 Thank you! DISCLAIMER: The contents of this presentation material are for informational purposes only, and should not be regarded as a recommendation or endorsement for any strategic or commercial decisions or an official valuation. The presentation material does not constitute an official statement of any form by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. 1-1, Toranomon 2-Chome, Minato-ku, Tokyo, JAPAN 15