Il ruolo del Mediterraneo nei cambiamenti del commercio globale di petrolio e gas. Giacomo Luciani Fondazione Mediterraneo Napoli, 5 aprile 2006

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1 Il ruolo del Mediterraneo nei cambiamenti del commercio globale di petrolio e gas Giacomo Luciani Fondazione Mediterraneo Napoli, 5 aprile 2006

2 Copyright Giacomo Luciani The Mediterranean market complex hardly exists as an independent entity relative to the highly developed markets in northern Europe and the USA. There is no price leader among indigenous crude oils, and in oil products the size of the market is swamped in terms of volume and influence by the Rotterdam market Paul Horsnell, The Mediterranean Basin in the World Petroleum Market, page 120 The current nature of price formation and crude oil trading in the Mediterranean is perhaps best encapsulated by the answer to the question of when was a deal last transacted in flat price terms in the area and reported to a price assessment agency. The answer is ibid. page 125

3 Copyright Giacomo Luciani With respect to oil, Mediterranean producers of relevance are, in the order: Libya, Algeria and Egypt. Syria still a net exporter but not for long. The Med receives oil from outside the basin (Russia, Caspian, Iraq, Gulf) as well as from riparian producers.

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7 Libya s Oil Balance in the Reference Scenario mb/d Domestic consumption Net exports INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY In 2030, Libya s oil exports will have nearly doubled to 2.5 mbd.

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12 Egypt: Decline in Oil Production and Export Copyright Giacomo Luciani Libya: Appropriate (Pragmatic) Policy, Well-Established Legal and Fiscal Framework In the short to Medium Term, Libya, not Iraq, to Become the Oil Hot Spot, Especially with Regards to Europe

13 Million Tons Algeria Libya Syria Egypt TOTAL

14 Country/million b/d Azerbaijan 1 1 Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Russian Caspian Total Source: OME

15 Crude Oil Pipeline Project DELTA HESS KHAZAR LIMITED INPEX

16 Russian Export Outlets Use m b/d a Eastern Europe Black Sea Baltic Sea Barents Sea Far East South Total

17 (million Barrels per Day) Iran Iraq Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Total Gulf

18 Source: OME

19 An interesting new situation will be created in the East Mediterranean. Azeri and Iraqi oil will become available at Ceyhan a total in excess of 2.5 mb/d. There will be a plurality of sellers (the members of the ACG consortium, SOMO, IOCs which might become involved in Iraq). Conditions may exist for the development of a new reference crude.

20 To Ceyhan from Baku To Ceyhan from Kirkuk Subtotal Ceyhan To Banias from Kirkuk To Sidon from KSA (Tapline) To Sidi Kerir from KSA (SUMED) Grand Total ?

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22 The Mediterranean market will be very competitive. Black Sea oil will aggressively compete in Europe and try to escape to the North and South. Gulf oil may be discouraged from coming in. Actual flows will be determined by prices.

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26 YEAR Total Used Pilot Tankers Source: Turkish Pilot Association

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31 Algeria s Natural Gas Production in the Reference Scenario bcm Hassi R'Mel In Salah Tin Fouye-Tabankort Gassi Touil In Amenas 1 Other fields New fields INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Gas production from existing fields will plateau soon after Further gas production will come from new projects yet to be announced.

32 Algeria s Natural Gas Balance in the Reference Scenario bcm Domestic demand Net exports INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Gas exports, mainly to Europe, are set to reach 144 bcm in 2030, more than double the current level both via LNG and via pipelines

33 Egypt s Natural Gas Production by Source bcm Khalda Area NIDOCO Operated Fields Port Fouad Fields Ras El Barr (Ha'py) West Delta Deep Marine West Mediterranean Block 1 Other fields New fields INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY In the Reference Scenario, natural gas production is expected to reach 92 bcm by two thirds will come from new fields

34 Egypt s Natural Gas Balance bcm Domestic demand Net exports INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Egypt s net exports will increase to 2030 despite rapidly increasing domestic demand

35 Libya s Natural Gas Production in the Reference Scenario bcm Bu Attifel (100-A) Intisar (103-D) Amal (012-B/E/N/R) Bouri (NC041-B) Other fields Western Libya Gas project New fields INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Libya s existing major gas fields will decline in the next ten years. Production from new fields will account for 78% of the total by 2030.

36 Copyright Giacomo Luciani 3 operating pipelines from the South: Enrico Mattei (Algeria-Tunisia-Italy) since early 1980s Pedro Duran Farrell (Algeria-Morocco-Spain- Portugal-France) since 199? Green Stream (Libya-Italy) LNG from Algeria, Egypt, Libya 2 pipeline projects: MEDGAZ (Algeria-Spain) GALSI (Algeria-Sardinia-Italy) The Politics and Economics of Int l Energy Lecture 6

37 Copyright Giacomo Luciani The Politics and Economics of Int l Energy Lecture 6

38 Copyright Giacomo Luciani Originates in renegotiation of upstream oil contract for the Bouri field Libya insisted on direct route, no transit countries Additional reserves pledged to reach minimum economic dimension Limited prospects for expansion The Politics and Economics of Int l Energy Lecture 6

39 Copyright Giacomo Luciani The Politics and Economics of Int l Energy Lecture 6

40 Copyright Giacomo Luciani Much shorter to market than previous pipeline Promoted by CEPSA, BP, Gaz de France, Total, ENI, Endesa No transit through Morocco But: Spain is already highly dependent on Algerian gas Expected in 2008 The Politics and Economics of Int l Energy Lecture 6

41 Copyright Giacomo Luciani Shortest connection from Algeria to Central and Northern Italy and South Central Europe Promoted by Sonatrach, Edison, Enel, Wintershall and others No supply and very small potential market in Sardinia Eni is expanding old pipeline Gas to gas competition? The Politics and Economics of Int l Energy Lecture 6

42 GALSI and Central Europe Copyright Giacomo Luciani The Politics and Economics of Int l Energy Lecture 6

43 Copyright Giacomo Luciani Pipelines from the South never experienced transit issues No international legal instrument (treaty), but Good contractual/ownership structure Alternatives available at stake very large interests Nevertheless, preference for avoiding transit The Politics and Economics of Int l Energy Lecture 6

44 Copyright Giacomo Luciani The Politics and Economics of Int l Energy Lecture 6

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46 Copyright Giacomo Luciani Gas can reach Turkey from: Russia The Caspian Iran Iraq Egypt Intense political competition to saturate Turkish market (and prevent access to others) The Politics and Economics of Int l Energy Lecture 6

47 Copyright Giacomo Luciani The Politics and Economics of Int l Energy Lecture 6

48 Copyright Giacomo Luciani The Politics and Economics of Int l Energy Lecture 6

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