Economics of Iran and Israel: Comparative Examination

Transcription

1 From the SelectedWorks of Prof. Dr. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan Summer September 13, 2013 Economics of Iran and Israel: Comparative Examination Mohammad Reza Farzanegan Available at:

2 Economics of Iran and Israel: Comparative Examination JProf. Dr. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan September 2013, CNMS, Fachgebiet Wirtschaft des Nahen und Mittleren Ostens/ Martin-Luther Schule (MLS) Meeting

3 Overview of Middle East CNMS 1. The only Middle East Economics Department as a part of Faculty of Economics at the level of University in Germany. 2. We offer specialized courses and seminars at BA and MS programs: Schwerpunkte BA Orientwissenschaft Wirtschaft: Master PoWo (Politik und Wirtschaft des Nahen und Mittleren Ostens): Master Economics of the Middle East (EMEA): 2 We offer also possibilities for doing a PhD

4 Overview of Middle East CNMS 1. Our department at CNMS is a part of Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften 3

5 Overview of Middle East CNMS 1. And also affliated to MACIE - Marburg Center for Institutional Economics 4

6 Overview of Middle East CNMS In addition to our teaching activities we put strong emphasize on research. Our main fields of research interests are: Wirtschaftliche Ursachen und Folgen des Arabischen Frühlings Ölreichtum und Ressourcenfluch Demografischer Wandel, Globalisierung, Armut, Arbeitslosigkeit Klimawandel, Wasser- und Nahrungsmittelknappheit 5

7 Overview of Middle East CNMS More details about Middle East Economics at CNMS: 6

8 Overview of Middle East CNMS Stay Connected in Facebook: 7

9 Agenda Introduction of economic, social, political and demographic indicators Examining key indicators in Iran before and after Islamic Revolution Comparing key indicators of Iran with Israel We will learn about Resource Curse We will learn about Demographic Transition Future Outlook 8

10 A Short Film on Political Development in Iran (Shah, Revolution) Iran der Wille zur Großmacht (Democracy for Shah, Khomeini) (07/10) Iran der Wille zur Großmacht ARTE DOKU (Revolution, Hostage US Embassy) (08/10) Iran der Wille zur Großmacht ARTE DOKU (War with Iraq and death of Ayatollah Khomeini and Atom Program) (09/10) Iran der Wille zur Großmacht ARTE DOKU (11 September, Iraq and Afghanistan, Israel, Atom Program) 9

11 10 Where is the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)?

12 Ranking of MENA Countries Based on the Size Surface area (sq. km) Algeria Saudi Libya Iran Egypt Yemen Morocco Iraq Oman Syria Tunisia Jordan UAE Djibouti Israel Kuwait Qatar Lebanon West Bank Bahrain Malta 11

13 Ranking of MENA Countries Based on the Size 12 Millionen Population, total Egypt Iran Algeria Morocco Iraq Saudi Yemen Syria Tunisia UAE Israel Jordan Libya Lebanon West Bank Kuwait Oman Qatar Bahrain Djibouti Malta

14 Ranking of MENA Countries Based on the Income per citizen Tausende Income per person (constant 2005 US$) 21,000 USD 3,000 USD Qatar Kuwait UAE Israel Malta Oman Bahrain Saudi Libya Lebanon Tunisia Iran Algeria Jordan Morocco Syria Egypt Iraq Djibouti Yemen 13

15 14 Ranking of MENA Countries Based on the Human Development Index (index für menschliche Entwicklung) Human Development Index (HDI) Israel Malta Qatar UAE Bahrain Kuwait Saudi Libya Lebanon Iran Oman Algeria Tunisia Jordan World Occu-Palestinian Egypt Syria Morocco Iraq Yemen

16 Components of Human Development Index 1- Life Expectancy at birth (Lebenserwartung bei der Geburt) 2- Mean years of Schooling (Erfolgte Schulbildung (Mittelwert in Anzahl Jahren)) HDI 3- Expected years of schooling (Erwartete gesamte Ausbildung (Mittelwert in Anzahl Jahren)) 4- Income per capita (Bruttonationaleinkommen (BNE) pro Einwohner) 15

17 16 Human Development Index

18 Ranking of MENA Countries Based on Health Spending per capita Health expenditure per capita- Average (US dollar per person) $ 1, $ Qatar Israel Malta UAE Kuwait Bahrain Lebanon Saudi Oman Iran Libya Tunisia Jordan Algeria Egypt Morocco Syria Iraq Djibouti Yemen

19 Ranking of MENA Countries Based on Life Expectancy Life expectancy at birth, total (years) - Average years 71 years Israel Malta Qatar UAE Syria Bahrain Kuwait Libya Tunisia Oman Saudi Jordan West Bank Algeria Lebanon Egypt Iran Morocco Iraq Yemen Djibouti

20 Ranking of MENA Countries Based on Military Budget 12 Military expenditure (% of GDP)- Average 2000_ % 6 4 3% Oman Saudi Israel Jordan Yemen Djibouti UAE Kuwait Syria Lebanon Bahrain Iraq Algeria Morocco Iran Qatar Egypt Libya Tunisia Malta

21 Ranking of MENA Countries Based on Education Budget Djibouti Public spending on education, total (% of GDP)- Average 2000_2011 Yemen Saudi Tunisia 6% Israel Kuwait Morocco Malta Syria 5% Iran Algeria Egypt Oman Bahrain Qatar Lebanon UAE

22 Ranking of MENA Countries Based on Control of Corruption Control of Corruption ( 2.5: least corrupt, -2.5: most corrupt)- Ave. 1996_ Israel Malta Qatar UAE Kuwait Oman Bahrain Jordan Tunisia Morocco Saudi Egypt Djibouti Iran Algeria Lebanon West Bank Syria Yemen Libya Iraq

23 Ranking of MENA Countries Based on Freedom 2.5 Voice and Accountability (2.5: most freedom, -2.5: least freedom) Malta Israel Lebanon Kuwait Jordan Morocco Qatar UAE Oman Bahrain West Bank Tunisia Djibouti Egypt Algeria Yemen Iran Iraq Syria Saudi Libya

24 Ranking of MENA Countries Based on Rule of Law 2 Rule of Law Malta Israel Qatar Oman Kuwait UAE Bahrain Jordan Saudi Tunisia Egypt Morocco West Bank Lebanon Syria Iran Algeria Djibouti Libya Yemen Iraq

25 Ranking of MENA Countries Based on Political Stability (1996_2011) 1.5 Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism Malta Qatar UAE Oman Kuwait Tunisia Libya Bahrain Djibouti Saudi Jordan Morocco Syria Egypt Iran Lebanon Israel Algeria Yemen West Bank Iraq

26 Iranian Economy: before and after revolution 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Income per person (US dollar), adjusted for inflation Shah Revolution Rafsanjani Khatami, War with Iraq Reformists Ahmadinejad 1,500 1, Oil based Modernization Reconstruction Political and Social Reforms Populism and Sanctions

27 A Short Film on Political Development in Iran (07/10) Iran der Wille zur Großmacht ARTE DOKU (Revolution, Hostage US Embassy) (08/10) Iran der Wille zur Großmacht ARTE DOKU (War with Iraq and death of Ayatollah Khomeini and Atom Program) (09/10) Iran der Wille zur Großmacht ARTE DOKU (11 September, Iraq and Afghanistan, Israel, Atom Program) 26

28 Iranian Economy: Follow the Oil Money 3,500 3, , , , , , , , real income per capita of Iran (left axis)- USD oil price per barrel (USD, right axis)

29 100 Iranian Economy: Dependence on Oil oil export (as % of total exports)

30 Iranian Economy: Dependence on Oil 60 oil export (as % of GDP)

31 Iranian Economy: Dependence on Oil 1800 oil exports per Iranian (US dollar) $

32 Dependence on Oil: Comparing Iran and Israel Oil rents (% of GDP), Average Iran, Islamic Rep. Israel 31

33 Dependence on Natural Resources: Comparing Iran and Israel Total natural resources rents (% of GDP) Iran, Islamic Rep. Israel

34 33 Natural resource wealth: comparative picture

35 Dependence on Natural Resources: Comparing Iran and Israel We call Israel a Resource Poor Country And Iran a Resource Rich Country The Problem of Resource Curse (Ressourcenfluch) 34

36 35 What is The Resource Curse? (Ressourcenfluch)

37 Natural Resources and Economic Growth- Transmission Channels Natural Resources x National Income Resources per se may not be the problem! What is X? 36

38 Oil per se may not be a problem: Iran and Norway total oil rents (US$), average (27 billion dollars) (13 billion dollars) 37 Iran, Islamic Rep. Norway

39 Oil per se may not be a problem: Iran and Norway ,87 (52 millions) Population, average ,947 (4 millions) Iran Norway 38

40 Oil per se may not be a problem: Iran and Norway Oil rents per person (US$), average times more oil rents per Norwegian than per Iranian 3005 $ 512 $ Iran Norway 39

41 Oil per se may not be a problem: Iran and Norway Income per person (adjusated for inflation rate US$), average (52 years) 37,487 1,699 5, Iran, Islamic Rep. Norway World

42 Oil per se may not be a problem: Iran and Norway 60 Annual Inflation rate % % Inflation rate, Iran Inflation rate, Norway 1.3

43 Oil per se may not be a problem: Iran and Norway % School enrollment, tertiary Iran Norway World 42

44 Oil per se may not be a problem: Iran and Norway- Democracy Index Norway Iran

45 Natural Resources and Economic Growth- Transmission Channels Message: Oil per se is not the problem! Factor X is guilty! 44

46 Oil and Democracy in Iran Dependence on oil reduces political openness. Why? No Representation without Taxation! Oil Revenues (% Total Revenues) Tax Revenues (% Total Revenues)

47 Oil and Democracy in Iran Dependence on oil reduces political openness. Why? The Oil state buy political oppositions by increasing subsidies and creating public jobs. Total Number of Government Employees 2,147, ,085 46

48 Oil and Democracy in Iran Fossil Fuel Consumption Subsidies in Top 25 Countries, 2010 (Billion US Dollars) Iran Saudi Russia India China Egypt Venezuela UAE Indonesia Uzbekistan Iraq Algeria Mexico Thailand Ukraine Kuwait Pakistan Argentina Malaysia Bangladesh Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Libya Qatar Ecuador Source: Compiled by Earth Policy Institute

49 And Results polity2_iran Polity2_Israel 48 Higher Polity score means higher democracy

50 49 Finally we talk about demographic structure

51 Politics, Economics and Demography! Politics Economics Demography 50

52 51 Origins of Fertility Change

53 Fertility Change in Iran and Israel : Iran, Islamic Rep. Israel 52

54 Working Age Population in Iran and Israel : Iran, Islamic Rep. Israel 53

55 Working Age Population in Iran and Israel Increasing Working Age population can be blessing if the government and economy uses this opportunity: more labor force, if employed prodcutively, can lead to more growth. It can be a curse if economy cannot absorbt them: higher unemployment and political instability. example: Arab Spring 54

56 What we mean by demographic transition 55 When the baby boom ends, working age population (15-64 years) increases: That is what we call demographic transition!

57 Vielen Dank! JProf. Dr. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan