Infrastructure Financing for Sustainable Development in Georgia. NATIONAL WORKSHOP June 6, Tbilisi David Lezhava

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1 Infrastructure Financing for Sustainable Development in Georgia NATIONAL WORKSHOP June 6, Tbilisi David Lezhava

2 2 Part I Infrastructure Financing Needs

3 3 Infrastructure investment needs globally McKinsey & Company 1.6 times increase ($57-67 trillion in 18years) ADB times increase ($26 trillion in Asia in 15 years) WB, OECD 1.5 times increase

4 4 Why Infrastructure is so important for Georgia? Roads Energy Water ICT Transit Inclusive Growth Energy Security Sewerage systems 24-hour Water supply Inclusion Efficiency Innovation Tourism

5 5 Investment Needs for Georgia USD Transport (Roads, bridges, tunnels) 4,128 Transmission lines 786 Water 569 Regional development 160 Irrigation 137 Tourist infrastructure % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Trend Government Plans

6 6 Free Trade Agreements

7 ARGENTINA CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC COLOMBIA BRAZIL CHINA ALGERIA TAJIKISTAN FRANCE ITALY INDIA BELGIUM SRI LANKA BELARUS CONGO, DEM REP MEXICO UKRAINE AUSTRIA SLOVAK REPUBLIC GREECE CZECH REPUBLIC MOROCCO SWEDEN SPAIN ESTONIA AFGHANISTAN AUSTRALIA RUSSIAN FEDERATION HUNGARY IRAN, ISLAMIC REP UNITED STATES EGYPT, ARAB REP PHILIPPINES SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC LITHUANIA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TURKEY POLAND MOLDOVA NETHERLANDS MALAYSIA AZERBAIJAN SERBIA NORWAY VIETNAM ROMANIA UZBEKISTAN FINLAND KENYA PANAMA ALBANIA LATVIA PERU PARAGUAY TAIWAN, CHINA NIGERIA UGANDA PAKISTAN KOREA, REP LIBYA THAILAND MYANMAR SLOVENIA UNITED KINGDOM INDONESIA CHILE LEBANON MALDIVES SEYCHELLES ICELAND TONGA NEPAL KAZAKHSTAN SOUTH SUDAN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC SWITZERLAND SOUTH AFRICA ISRAEL IRAQ JORDAN BULGARIA LAO PDR IRELAND BOTSWANA DENMARK MONGOLIA CYPRUS HONG KONG SAR, CHINA BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA MONTENEGRO CAMBODIA CANADA CROATIA LUXEMBOURG SINGAPORE ARMENIA SAMOA GEORGIA UNITED ARAB EMIRATES SAUDI ARABIA MACEDONIA, FYR KUWAIT QATAR Total tax rate (% of profit) Tax Burden 7 Before after Number of Taxes VAT (%) Personal Income Tax (%) Social Tax (%) Corporate Income Tax (%) Dividend and Interest Income Tax (%) (distributed earning only) 10% Source: MoF One of the lowest tax burden globally 20 0 Source: WB Doing Business

8 Improved Rankings Heritage Foundation - Economic Freedom Fraser Institute - Economic Freedom WEF - Global competitiveness index TI - Corruption Perception Index WB - Doing Business

9 Source: WB 9 Worldwide Governance Indicators Control of Corruption Government Effectiveness Political Stability Regulatory Quality Rule of Law Voice and Accountability

10 10 GDP * Source: GEOSTAT GDP Current prices (RHS, Billion GEL) GDP growth

11 11 4 point plan Improve Business Environment Promoting Open Governance Infrastructure Development Education Reform

12 12 4 point plan Improve Business Environment Promoting Open Governance Infrastructure Development Education Reform

13 13 Public Debt Total Public Debt to Nominal GDP (%) External Public Debt to Nominal GDP (%) 60% 50.4% 40% 20% 39.9% 34.5% 26.8% 32.0% 21.1% 31.2% 25.5% 16.8% 23.5% 41.0% 42.4% 36.5% 34.8% 34.7% 35.6% 31.7% 33.6% 28.8% 27.6% 27.2% 26.8% 41.4% 44.9% 32.5% 35.3% 0% P Source: MoF

14 14 Budget Deficit 50.0% 10.0% 40.0% 8.0% 30.0% 6.0% 20.0% 4.0% 10.0% 2.0% 0.0% P 0.0% Capital and Lending Social Expenditure Other Current Expenditure Fiscal Deficit Source: MoF

15 15 Current Expenditure Dynamics 15.0% 10.0% 2.9% 1.6% 3.1% 2.0% 3.2% 3.4% 2.4% 2.9% 5.0% 6.6% 7.5% 8.2% 7.8% 0.0% Social Healthcare Education Source: MoF

16 16 How can the gap be closed?

17 17 Thank you!

18 Infrastructure Financing for Sustainable Development in Georgia NATIONAL WORKSHOP June 6, Tbilisi David Lezhava

19 19 Part II infrastructure Financing Strategies

20 20 Options for Closing Financing Gap Public Sources Borrowing Private Sources PPI Require Less Maintenance Budget Quasi Fiscal PPP PPA PIM

21 21 Option 1. For Closing Financing Gap Public Sources Borrowing - Donors Budget Quasi Fiscal - SOEs

22 22 Public Sources Donor Financing External Public Debt Donor Financed Projects by Sector IMF [VALUE] EIB [VALUE] Eurobon d[value ] Bilateral[ VALUE] EBRD[VA LUE] 37 ADB [VALUE] WB [VALUE] Energy, 8.6% IDP, 3.6% Educatio Agricult n, 4.5% ure, 6.4% Municip al Infrastru cture, 16.4% Other, 2.9% Water, 21.2% Transpor t, 36.4% Source: MoF

23 23 Public Funds Fiscal Room Expenditure Measures Wage Bill Administrative Spending Healthcare Expenditures Revenue Measures Tobacco Alcohol Fuel % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: MoF and IMF Trend IMF Government

24 24 Public Sources - SOEs On-lending practices, no guarantees Borrowing and Investing (Rail, GOGC) Strengthening financial conditions (UWC) Way forward for Partnership Fund

25 25 Option 2. For Closing Financing Gap Private Sources PPI Private Participation in Infrastructure PPP Public Private Partnership PPA Power Purchase Agreement

26 26 Private Sources Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) Business environment (Taxes, Deregulation, Corruption and Red Tape) User fees (Tariff, Toll) Capital Market and Banking Sector Privatization

27 27 Privatization Revenues and Efficiency Privatization in Energy Sector Success Story Is anything left to privatize?

28 28

29 29 Private Sources PPP/PPA Mostly positive experience, but Option to circumvent fiscal costs? PPP framework is must PPA practice Introduce and follow the rules Make it transparent Limit exposure

30 30 Option 3. For Closing Financing Gap Require Less Maintenance PIM

31 GEL, million 31 Require Less Use Maintenance Source: Roads Department

32 32 27 Require Less Strengthen PIM 1. Fiscal Rules 15. Monitoring of Assets 2. National & Sectoral Planning 14.Project Management 3. Central-Local Coordination 13.Transparency of Execution 4. Management of PPPs 12. Availability of Funding 5. Company Regulation 11. Protection of Investment 6. Multiyear Budgeting 10. Project Selection 9. Project Appraisal 8. Budget Unity 7. Budget Comprehensiveness Source: IMF and author s estimate GEO EMs World

33 33 Conclusion Impressive reforms didn t bring full satisfaction There is a need for increased investment Finding fiscal room Greater Involvement of the private sector is vital, but needs to be done prudently Strengthening PIM gives significant savings

34 34 Thank you!

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