Making waves through turbulent times

Transcription

1 Making waves through turbulent times Durham Shaun Heywood June 9, 2011

2 Contents 1. Section 1 Supply How the fleet is changing Where have all the newbuilds gone? 2. Section 2 Demand The drivers behind the market 3. Section 3 Utilisation Will the market cope with the oversupply? 4. Section 4 Decommissioning A future demand builder 5. Section 5 Attrition Will it happen? 6. Section 6 Day rates Looking at the rates in the market for shallow and deep waters 2

3 How is the subsea vessel fleet changing?

4 Number of vessels How old is the fleet? Age of subsea fleet DSVs ROVSVs years 6-10 years years years years 26+ years 4

5 When will the newbuilds arrive? Subsea fleet newbuilds 2013 ROVSVs DSVs Number of vessels Source: ConstructionVesselBase 5

6 How is the pipelay vessel fleet changing?

7 Number of vessels How old is the fleet? Age of pipelay fleet Pipelay Derrick Pipelay years 6-10 years years years years 26+ years Source: ConstructionVesselBase 7

8 When will the newbuilds arrive? Pipelay fleet newbuilds 2013 Derrick Pipelay Pipelay Number of vessels Source: ConstructionVesselBase 8

9 Newbuilds where have they gone? Subsea and Pipelay fleet

10 Geographical distribution of new vessels June 2011 Diving support and ROV support vessels (43 vessels) West Africa, 5% Northwest Europe, 30% Asia-Pacific, 35% North America, 9% Middle East, 7% Mediterranean, 2% Latin America, 12% Source: ConstructionVesselBase 10

11 Recently delivered vessels current activity Diving support and ROV support vessels (43 vessels) Support, 16% Survey, 2% Idle, 19% Removal, 2% Mobilisation, 5% Maintenance, 7% Installation, 7% Working - Other modes, 7% Commissioning, 2% IRM, 33% Source: ConstructionVesselBase 11

12 Geographical distribution of new vessels May 2011 Pipelay vessels (20 vessels) Northwest Europe, 10% West Africa, 10% Asia-Pacific, 55% Middle East, 10% Latin America, 10% Caspian, 5% Source: ConstructionVesselBase 12

13 Recently delivered vessels current activity Pipelay vessels (20 vessels) Mobilisation, 15% Idle, 11% Standby, 11% Installation, 22% Maintenance, 6% Pipelay, 44% Source: ConstructionVesselBase 13

14 The drivers behind the market Demand

15 km of pipelines Global Pipeline installations Including export lines, flowlines and trunklines 14,000 12,000 Tendering Possible Planned Installed Construction 10,000 For more information please contact your ODS-Petrodata account manager 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Source: FieldsBase 15

16 km of pipelines km of pipelines Pipeline installations Brazil Nigeria Tendering Planned Construction Possible Installed For more information please contact your ODS- Petrodata account manager Tendering Planned Construction Possible Installed For more information please contact your ODS- Petrodata account manager Source: FieldsBase 16

17 Vessels IRM a growing market IRM demand For more information please contact your ODS-Petrodata account manager Shallow & benign Pipeline IRM Harsh & deep Pipeline IRM Source: ODS-Petrodata 17

18 Subsea tree installations for 2010 Subsea trees per geographical region South America, 15% Russia and Caspian, 1% Africa, 29% North America, 17% Med/Middle East, 4% Asia-Pacific, 10% Central America, 1% Europe, 23% Source: FieldsBase 18

19 Number of trees Global subsea tree installations Installed Construction Tendering Planned Possible For more information please contact your ODS-Petrodata account manager Source: FieldsBase 19

20 Number of trees Number of trees Global subsea tree installations Brazil 100 Nigeria Installed Tendering Possible Construction Planned For more information please contact your ODS- Petrodata account manager Installed Tendering Possible Construction Planned For more information please contact your ODS- Petrodata account manager Source: FieldsBase 20

21 Number of vessels DSV demand Global demand for the diving support vessel market Shallow & benign Harsh & deep For more information please contact your ODS-Petrodata account manager Source: ODS-Petrodata 21

22 Number of vessels ROVSV demand Global demand for the ROV support vessel market Shallow & benign Harsh & deep For more information please contact your ODS-Petrodata account manager Source: ODS-Petrodata 22

23 Number of vessels Pipelay demand Global demand for the pipelay vessel market Shallow & benign Harsh & deep For more information please contact your ODS-Petrodata account manager Source: ODS-Petrodata 23

24 Will the market cope with the oversupply? Utilisation

25 Utilisation Average utilisation by age in 2010 Global subsea fleet 100% 90% DSVs ROVSVs 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0-5 years 6-10 years years years years 26+ years Source: ConstructionVesselBase 25

26 Utilisation Average utilisation by age in 2010 Global pipelay fleet 100% 90% 80% Pipelay Derrick Pipelay 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0-5 years 6-10 years years years years 26+ years Source: ConstructionVesselBase 26

27 Utilisation Utilisation Utilisation May 2011 Brazil Nigeria 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% DSV ROVSV All pipelay DSV ROVSV All pipelay 50% 50% 40% % Source: FieldsBase 27

28 Utilisation Utilisation DSV, ROVSV and all pipelay vessels, including derrick pipelay 100% 90% 80% For more information please contact your ODS-Petrodata account manager 70% 60% DSVs ROVSVs All pipelay 50% 40% Source: ODS-Petrodata 28

29 Decommissioning A future demand builder

30 Number of platforms Decommissioning an expense that has to happen Fixed platforms in Northwest Europe years years years 40+ Source: FieldsBase DECC s estimated total cost of decommissioning in the North Sea is USD billion USD 25 billion to decommission 253 offshore installations USD 11 billion to remove 278 subsea production systems USD 3-11 billion to remove 3,300 pipelines Less than 10% has been removed Water depth varies between msw Yearly spend on decommissioning UK USD 500 million 30

31 Number of platforms Decommissioning a future demand builder Fixed platforms in the Gulf of Mexico years years years 40+ Source: FieldsBase Government pushing to get idle infrastructure out over a period of three years Benefits for operators include Reduced insurance premiums Increased workforce utilisation Planned decommissioning is cheaper than decommissioning due to a hurricane Removal costs 3,000+ wells USD ,000 = USD 600 million to 1.1 billion 775 idle structures USD million per structure = USD 930 million to 2.2 billion Removals have and will be outpacing installations in this region Yearly spend on decommissioning GoM USD 600 million and rising 31

32 Attrition Will it happen?

33 Number of vessels Attrition scenarios for diving support vessels For more information please contact your ODS-Petrodata account manager Excluding fleet > 35 years Excluding fleet > 25 years Excluding fleet > 30 years All visible fleet Source: ConstructionVesselBase 33

34 Number of vessels Attrition scenarios for ROV support vessels Excluding fleet > 35 years Excluding fleet > 25 years Excluding fleet > 30 years All visible fleet For more information please contact your ODS-Petrodata account manager Source: ConstructionVesselBase 34

35 Number of vessels Attrition scenarios for pipelay vessels For more information please contact your ODS-Petrodata account manager Excluding fleet > 35 years Excluding fleet > 25 years Excluding fleet > 30 years All visible fleet Source: ConstructionVesselBase 35

36 Number of vessels Attrition scenarios for derrick pipelay vessels For more information please contact your ODS-Petrodata account manager Excluding fleet > 35 years Excluding fleet > 25 years Excluding fleet > 30 years All visible fleet Source: ConstructionVesselBase 36

37 Day rates

38 Day rates Day rates Day rates including full spread in Asia-Pacific Shallow & benign vessel day rates Harsh & deep vessel day rates Diving Support Pipelay ROV Support Diving Support Pipelay ROV Support Source: ConstructionVesselBase 38

39 Conclusions Oversupply, yes! But oversupply in older vessels operating in benign waters. Additional high-end tonnage may be required as we enter deeper waters, and definitely when the Arctic opens up. Estimated 25% of world s petroleum reserves are in the Arctic regions. 90 billion barrels of oil 1,700 trillion cubic feet of natural gas 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids may remain to be found in the region The market is healthy, demand is on the rise and confidence has returned. Operators may restrict the age of tonnage they use. Decommissioning will be big business, for fabrication yards and vessel owners alike, despite reduced rates compared to installation work. 39

40 ODS-Petrodata Field Development Research for this presentation comes from the following databases and published ODS- Petrodata market reports: Databases: ConstructionVesselBase FieldsBase Online databases and news service combined. Updated daily Published ODS-Petrodata market reports: The Aquanaut Offshore Field Development Monthly Petrodaily Subsea & Field Development Monthly Monthly Live online news service 40

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