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2 THANK YOU TO OUR 2018 Business Forecast Sponsors Presented by: Center for Business and Economic Research Walton Presenting Partner Walton Academic Partners Walton Corporate Partners Walton Business Partners Walton Media Partners
3 Sam M. Walton College of Business Center for Business & Economic Research Business Forecast 2018 Friday, January 26, :30 a.m. - 1:30 p.m. Schedule of Events Welcome Special Remarks Joseph Steinmetz, Chancellor University of Arkansas Matt Waller, Dean Sam M. Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas 2017 Contest Awards Mervin Jebaraj, Director Center for Business and Economic Research Sam M. Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas State and Regional Forecast Introduction of Keynote Speaker Keynote Speaker Question and Answer Session Recognitions and Announcements Mervin Jebaraj Jim Walton Chairman and CEO Arvest Bank Group Michael Milken Chairman Milken Institute Ross DeVol Walton Fellow Walton Family Foundation Matt Waller Business Forecast 2018 is in association with the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). Please use Twitter hashtag #BF2018 for this event.
4 Michael Milken, Ross DeVol Mervin Jebaraj
5 The Arkansas Economy in 2018: Can it get better than this? Mervin Jebaraj, Director Center for Business and Economic Research January 26, 2018
6 Unemployment Rates, Not Seasonally Adjusted 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics United States Arkansas Northwest Arkansas
7 Unemployment Rates, Not Seasonally Adjusted 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Fay-Spr-Rog Fort Smith LR-NLR-Conway Jonesboro Pine Bluff Hot Springs Texarkana Memphis
8 Real U.S. Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% 2007.Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 Source: U.S. Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis, December 2017 NABE Outlook
9 1,280 Arkansas Non-Farm Employment Forecast 1,260 1,240 1,220 Thousands 1,200 1,180 1,160 1,140 1,120 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2017 CBER Forecast
10 Change in Arkansas Employment by Sector December December 2017 Construction Manufacturing Education and Health Services Other Services Professional and Business Services Non-Farm Leisure and Hospitality Financial Activities Government Trade, Transportation and Utilities Mining and Logging Information 1.3% -7.0% -4.0% -1.0% 2.0% 5.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CBER Calculations
11 270 Northwest Arkansas Employment Forecast Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Thousands Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2017 CBER Forecast
12 Change in Northwest Arkansas MSA Employment by Sector, December December 2017 Mining, Logging and Construction Leisure and Hospitality Manufacturing Education and Health Services Financial Activities Government Other Services Non-Farm 2.4% Professional and Business Services Information Trade, Transportation and Utilities -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CBER Calculations
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14 Labor Force, Year Over Year Percent Change 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics United States Arkansas Northwest Arkansas
15 68.0% Annual Labor Force Participation Rate 66.0% 64.0% 62.0% 60.0% 58.0% 56.0% 54.0% 52.0% 50.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics United States Arkansas
16 $60,000 Per Capita Personal Income $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis United States Arkansas Northwest Arkansas
17 2018 Challenges and Opportunities Arkansas Labor Force Participation Rate Educational Attainment Research & Commercialization, Workforce Training Northwest Arkansas Entrepreneurship Affordable Housing Early Childhood Education
18 The 2018 Business Forecast Slides will be available at Contact at or on
19 The Arkansas Economy in 2018: Appendix
20 Government 17% Other Services 4% Leisure and Hospitality 9% Education and Health Services 15% Arkansas Employment by Sector - December 2017 Mining and Logging 0.5% Construction 4% Manufacturing 13% Trade, Transportation and Utilities 20% Information 1% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Professional and Business Services 12% Financial Activities 4%
21 Government 14% Other Services 3% Leisure and Hospitality 10% Northwest Arkansas Employment by Sector - December 2017 Mining, Logging and Construction 4% Manufacturing 11% Trade, Transportation and Utilities 22% Education and Health Services 12% Professional and Business Services 20% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Information 1% Financial Activities 3%
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23 Female Labor Force Participation Rates Source: U.S. Census Bureau 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 77.0% 68.4% 61.3% 80.5% 73.9% 67.5% 84.6% 80.1% 78.7% 84.6% 82.0% 83.5% 78.0% 75.9% 75.4% 80.8% 75.2% 69.9% 77.0% 72.2% 70.4% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Fayetteville- Springdale- Rogers MSA Austin-Round Rock MSA Des Moines- West Des Moines, MSA Madison MSA Durham-Chapel Hill MSA Labor Force Participation Rates (20-64) Female Labor Force Participation Rates (20-64) Female Labor Force Participation Rates (with own children 0-6) Raleigh MSA US
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