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2 THANK YOU TO OUR 2018 Business Forecast Sponsors Presented by: Center for Business and Economic Research Walton Presenting Partner Walton Academic Partners Walton Corporate Partners Walton Business Partners Walton Media Partners
3 Sam M. Walton College of Business Center for Business & Economic Research Business Forecast 2018 Friday, January 26, :30 a.m. - 1:30 p.m. Schedule of Events Welcome Special Remarks Joseph Steinmetz, Chancellor University of Arkansas Matt Waller, Dean Sam M. Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas 2017 Contest Awards Mervin Jebaraj, Director Center for Business and Economic Research Sam M. Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas State and Regional Forecast Introduction of Keynote Speaker Keynote Speaker Question and Answer Session Recognitions and Announcements Mervin Jebaraj Jim Walton Chairman and CEO Arvest Bank Group Michael Milken Chairman Milken Institute Ross DeVol Walton Fellow Walton Family Foundation Matt Waller Business Forecast 2018 is in association with the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). Please use Twitter hashtag #BF2018 for this event.
4 Michael Milken, Ross DeVol Mervin Jebaraj
5
6 Unemployment Rates, Not Seasonally Adjusted 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Source: Bureau of Labor cs United States Arkansas Northwest Arkansas Unemployment Rates, Not Seasonally Adjusted 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Source: Bureau of Labor cs Fay Spr Rog Fort Smith LR NLR Conway Jonesboro Pine Blu Hot Springs Texarkana Memphis
7 Real U.S. Gross Domes Produ Gr Ra e 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 2007.Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 Sou U.S. Depar men, Bureau of E onomi Analysis, r 2017 NABE ook 1,280 Arkansas Non Farm Employmen Fore as 1,260 1,240 1,220 ousands 1,200 1,180 1,160 1,140 1,120 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18 Jul 18 Sou Bureau of L or s, 2017 CBER as
8 Change in Arkansas Employment by Sector November 2016 November 2017 n Manufacturing Educ on and Health Services Professional and Business Services Other Services Non Farm Leisure and Hospitality Trade, Transpor n and U es Mining and Logging Financial Ac v es Government Inform on 1.7% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% Source: Bureau of Labor cs, CBER Calc s 280 Northwest Arkansas Employment Forecast Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Thousands Source: Bureau of Labor cs, December 2017 CBER Forecast
9 Change in Northwest Arkansas MSA Employment by Sector, November 2016 November 2017 Mining, Logging and n Leisure and Hospitality on and Health Services Government Other Services Financial Ac v es Non Farm 2.5% Manufacturing Professional and Business Services Trade, Transpor n and U es Inform on 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Source: Bureau of Labor cs, CBER Calc s
10 Labor Force, Year Over Year Percent Change 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Source: Bureau of Labor cs United States Arkansas Northwest Arkansas 68.0% Annual Labor Force Pa a Rate 66.0% 64.0% 62.0% 60.0% 58.0% 56.0% 54.0% 52.0% 50.0% Source: Bureau of Labor cs United States Arkansas
11 $60,000 Per Capita Personal Income $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis United States Arkansas Northwest Arkansas The 2018 Business Forecast Slides will be available at h cber.uark.edu. Contact at mjebaraj@walton.uark.edu or on Twi
12 The Arkansas Economy in 2018: Appendix Go ernment 17% Other Ser ces 4% Leisure and Hospit y 9% Educa on and He h Ser ces 15% Arkansas by Sector No ember 2017 Mining and Logging 0.5% Construc on 4% Manufacturing 13% Trade, Transporta n and s 20% Informa on 1% Source: Bureau of Labor St s Professiona and Business Ser ces 12% Financia Ac es 4%
13 Go ernment 15% Other Ser ces 3% Leisure and Hospit y 10% Northwest Arkansas by Sector No ember 2017 Mining, Logging and Construc on 4% Manufacturing 11% Trade, Transporta n and s 22% Educa on and He h Ser ces 11% Source: Bureau of Labor cs Professiona and Business Ser ces 20% Informa on 1% Financia Ac es 3%
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Walton Presenting Partner. Walton Academic Partners. Walton Corporate Partners. Walton Business Partners. Walton Media Partners
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