2018 Economic Outlook Forum Daraius Irani, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Regional Economic Studies Institute VP, Division of Strategic Partnerships and
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1 2018 Economic Outlook Forum Daraius Irani, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Regional Economic Studies Institute VP, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Towson University November 29, 2018
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3 $19,000 U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product 2006Q1-2018Q3, Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted 2018Q3: $18.7 trillion, 3.5 percent Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars $14,000 $9,000 $4,000 -$1,000 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Net exports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
4 140 Length and Average GDP Growth of the Five Longest Post-WWII Expansions 6.0% Months of Recovery % % % % % 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Average Growth % 0 0.0% 1961Q1-1969Q4 1982Q4-1990Q3 1991Q1-2001Q1 2001Q4-2007Q4 2009Q2-present Sources: BEA, National Bureau for Economic Research
5 Source: Travelling Dad
6 $13,000 $12,500 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures 2006Q1-2018Q3, Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars 2018Q3: $13.0 trillion, 4.0 percent 7.0% 5.0% Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars $12,000 $11,500 $11,000 $10,500 $10,000 $9, % 1.0% -1.0% -3.0% -5.0% Percent Change from Preceding Period $9,000 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III Personal consumption expenditures Percent change from preceding period -7.0% Source: BEA
7 Consumer Sentiment Index Jan Sep Sep. 2018: Consumer Sentiment Index Nov. 2008: Consumer Sentiment Index Source: FRED
8 Real Median Household Income in the U.S Adjusted Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted $65,000 $60, : $61, Adjusted Dollars $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40, Sources: FRED, U.S. Census
9 Mean Real U.S. Household Income by Quintile 2017 Adjusted Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 Income $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $ Lowest Fifth Second Fifth Third Fifth Fourth Fifth Highest Fifth Top Five Percent Sources: U.S. Census
10 Mean Real Household Income for Top 5 Percent of Incomes by Race 2017 $600,000 $500,000 $502,531 $400,000 $407,085 Income $300,000 $289,837 $268,795 $200,000 $100,000 $0 Asian White, Not Hispanic Hispanic Black Sources: U.S. Census
11 U.S. Unemployment and Underemployment Jan Oct % 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% Percentage 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Unemployment Underemployment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 18.0% U.S. Unemployment Rate by Race or Ethnicity 16.0% 14.0% Unemployment Rate 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% White (All Origins) Black or African American (All Origins) Asian Hispanic or Latinx Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
13 68.0% U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate Annual Averages 67.0% Participation Rate 66.0% 65.0% 64.0% Aug 2017: 75.2% Missing workers, 2018: 6.1 million 63.0% 1948: 34.9% 62.0% Actual Rate Pre-recession Rate Source: BLS
14 2018: The Retail Apocalypse Continues Source: Company Websites
15 Source: Chris Yang
16 Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars $3,400 $3,200 $3,000 $2,800 $2,600 $2,400 $2,200 $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 U.S. Gross Private Domestic Investment 2006Q1-2018Q3, Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars 2018Q3: $3.4 trillion; 12.0 percent I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% Percent Change from Preceding Period Gross private domestic investment Percent change from preceding period Source: BEA
17 2,500 U.S. Privately-Owned Housing Starts Seasonally Adjusted, Units in Thousands, Jan Sep Number of Housing Starts, in thousands 2,000 1,500 1, Current (September 2018) level Year Sources: FRED, U.S. Census Bureau
18 Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: CP America s Tallest Roller Coast
19 Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars $3,400 $3,350 $3,300 $3,250 $3,200 $3,150 $3,100 $3,050 $3,000 $2,950 $2,900 U.S. Government Spending 2006Q1-2018Q3, Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars 2018Q3: $3.2 trillion, 3.3 percent 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Percent change from preceding period $2,850 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Percent change from preceding period -8.0% Source: BEA
20 United States Federal Deficit FY 2002-FY 2018, Millions of Dollars $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 Millions of Dollars $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $ Source: FRED
21 Source: Shutterstock
22 Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars $0 -$100 -$200 -$300 -$400 -$500 -$600 -$700 -$800 -$900 -$1,000 U.S. Net Exports 2006Q1-2018Q3, Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 2018Q3: -$939 billion 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% Percent Change from Preceding Period in Exports or Imports Net exports of goods and services Percent change from preceding period in Exports Percent change from preceding period in Imports Source: BEA
23 Protectionist Trade Policy Trade War with China: 25% tariff on $50 billion in Chinese goods, 10% tariff on an additional $200 billion 10% tariffs will increase to 25% on January 1, 2019 Retaliatory tariffs from China on nearly all of the $130 billion of goods imported from the United States Steel and Aluminum Tariffs on U.S. Allies: 25% tariff on imports of steel 10% tariff on imports of aluminum Sources: Financial Post, Chicago Tribune, Office of the US Trade Representative
24 $160 Crude Oil Price Per Barrel Jan Sep $140 $120 Price per Barrel $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ Source: US Energy Information Administration
25 Made in America Auto Index, 2013 vs 2017 Five Most Popular Cars in United States Kogod Index Ford F150 Chevy Silverado RAM 1500 Toyota Camry Toyota Corolla Sources: Kogod School of Business, USA Today
26 Source: MD Coast Dispatch
27 Millions of Chained 2009 Dollars $350,000 $340,000 $330,000 $320,000 $310,000 $300,000 $290,000 $280,000 $270,000 Maryland Real Gross State Product Millions of Chained 2009 Dollars, 2006Q1-2018Q1 2018Q1: $346 billion, 0.4 percent 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Percent Change from Preceding Period $260,000 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I -1.5% MD RGSP Percent Change from Preceding Period Source: BEA
28 12.0% U.S. vs MD Unemployment Jan Sep % Unemployment Rate 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Unemployment Year MD Unemployment Sources: BLS, FRED
29 Unemployment Rate for Counties in Central Maryland Annual Average, 2017 Howard 3.1% Anne Arundel 3.6% Harford 3.9% Baltimore County 4.3% Baltimore City 6.1% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Unemployment Rate Source: BLS
30 Maryland Employment by Sector In thousands, September 2018 Government Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Accommodation and Food Services Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Mining, Logging, and Construction Financial Activities Other Services Transportation and Utilities Educational Services Finance and Insurance Wholesale Trade Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Management of Companies and Enterprises Number of Jobs in Thousands Source: BLS
31 Current Employment by Sector in Baltimore MSA In Thousands, September 2018 Educational & Health Services Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Professional & Business Services Government Leisure & Hospitality Financial Activities 78.9 Mining, Logging, & Construction 77.2 Manufacturing 55.2 Other Services 52.9 Information Thousands of Jobs Source: BLS
32 $70,000 Average Annual Pay by County of Work for Central Maryland $66,164 $65, Average Annual Pay $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $57,957 $54,718 $51,377 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Howard Baltimore City Anne Arundel Baltimore County Harford Sources: BLS, QCEW
33 $500,000 Median Home Prices for Counties in Central Maryland August 2018 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 Median Home Price $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 State Median Home Price = $299,900 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Howard Anne Arundel Harford Baltimore County Baltimore City Sources: Maryland REALTORS, MRIS
34 Current Job Openings by Occupation Group Maryland, October 2018 Computer and Mathematical Occupations Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations Management Occupations Office and Administrative Support Sales and Related Occupations Architecture and Engineering Business and Financial Operations Transportation and Material Moving Food Preparation and Serving Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Production Occupations Healthcare Support Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Education, Training, and Library Community and Social Services Life, Physical, and Social Science Personal Care and Service Protective Service Construction and Extraction Building, Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Legal Occupations Military Farming, Fishing, and Forestry ,082 4,532 3,806 3,749 3,441 3,117 2,956 2,330 1,996 1,982 1,947 1,530 9,496 8,906 7,987 7,569 11,360 14,827 19,392 22, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Number of Openings Source: Maryland Workforce Exchange
35 Maryland Education Trust Fund Revenue FY 2011-FY 2019, Millions of Dollars $600.0 $500.0 $400.0 $432.4 $403.8 $452.9 $481.6 $502.9 Millions of Dollars $300.0 $200.0 $284.3 $328.4 $100.0 $50.1 $94.3 $ Fiscal Year Source: Maryland Board of Revenue Estimates
36 Split HQ2 Long Island City, NY Crystal City, VA Source: The Washington Post
37 Millionaires per Capita Top Ten States, 2017 Maryland 7.87% New Jersey 7.86% Connecticut 7.75% Hawaii Alaska Massachusetts New Hampshire 7.57% 7.50% 7.41% 7.36% Virginia 6.98% Delaware California 6.62% 6.61% Sources: Phoenix Marketing International
38 Difference In Establishment Births vs Establishment Deaths Maryland, 2008 Q1 to 2017 Q1 1,500 Establishment Births Establishment Deaths 1, ,000-1,500 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I Source: BLS Business Employment Dynamics
39 Human Development Index Disparities in Baltimore City Greater Roland Park/Poplar Hill HDI: Theoretical World Ranking: 1 Closest Comparison: Norway (0.949) Upton/Druid Heights HDI: Theoretical World Ranking: 97 Closest Comparison: Tunisia (0.725) Source: RESI
40 Human Development Index Disparities in Baltimore City: Life Expectancy Cross Country/Cheswolde Life Expectancy: 87.1 Clifton-Berea Life Expectancy: 66.9 Pimlico/Arlington/ Hilltop Life Expectancy: 68.2 Fells Point Life Expectancy: 78.7 Source: RESI
41 Human Development Index Disparities in Baltimore City: Mean Years of Schooling Greater Roland Park / Poplar Hill Mean Years of Schooling: 17.2 Canton Mean Years of Schooling: 15.6 Southwest Baltimore Mean Years of Schooling: 11.0 Brooklyn/Curtis Bay/Hawkins Point Mean Years of Schooling: Source: RESI
42 Human Development Index Disparities in Baltimore City: Income Per Capita Greater Roland Park / Poplar Hill Income Per Capita: $73,942 Canton Income Per Capita: $65,416 Upton/Druid Heights Income Per Capita: $13,610 Cherry Hill Income Per Capita: $13,530 Source: RESI
43 Median Household Income Disparities in Maryland By Race, 2016 $100,000 $88,633 $75,000 $72,540 $71,575 $74,757 $62,919 $50,000 $37,225 $25,000 $0 Baltimore City Baltimore County Maryland African American or Black White Non-Hispanic Source: U.S. Census Bureau
44 Towson University, Towson Division University, of Strategic Division Partnerships of Innovation and and Applied Applied Research Research Source: Lincolnshire Source: Today Sandra Lechner
45 2.5% Forecasted Private Nonfarm Employment Maryland, ,300,000 Percent Change 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% 3,200,000 3,100,000 3,000,000 2,900,000 2,800,000 2,700,000 2,600,000 Private Nonfarm Employment -2.5% Private Nonfarm Employment Percent Change 2,500,000 Source: REMI PI+, RESI
46 Forecasted Total New Job Openings in Maryland by Region Annual Average, ,375 90,541 67,591 12,648 8,371 Source: RESI
47 Forecasted Total Job Growth in Maryland by Region Annual Average, ,603 5, Source: RESI
48 70,000 60,000 Forecasted Job Growth By Year ,039 50,000 40,000 Job Growth 30,000 20,000 10, ,000-2,803-20,000-30,000-18, Source: RESI
49 Forecasted Employment Growth by Sector Annual Average, Maryland Health Care and Social Assistance Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Administrative and Waste Management Services Construction Other Services, except Public Administration Educational Services; Private Finance and Insurance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Mining Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Utilities Information Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Government -1,187-1, ,483 1,223 1, ,267 3,707 3,496-2,500-1, ,500 2,500 3,500 4,500 Average Annual Change in Number of Jobs Source: RESI
50 Forecasted Employment Growth By Occupation Group Annual Average, Maryland Personal Care and Service Computer and Mathematical Business and Financial Operations Education, Training, and Library Healthcare Support Management Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Construction and Extraction Transportation and Material Moving Food Preparation and Serving Related Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Legal Community and Social Service Sales and Related Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Architecture and Engineering Protective Service Life, Physical, and Social Science Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Production Office and Administrative Support -1, ,494 1,262 1,188 1,155 1,137 1,119 1,081 1,043 2,419-3,000-2,000-1, ,000 2,000 3,000 Average Annual Change in Number of Jobs Source: RESI
51 Forecasted Total Job Growth by Zone Average, ,000 4,500 4,353 4,000 3,500 Average Job Growth 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 2,990 2,611 1,451 1, Job Zone Little or No Preparation Extensive Preparation Source: RESI
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